bubble 9 man SNG

thunder1276

thunder1276

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How should you play on the bubble in a 9 man SNG. I was in first with about 3500 in the BB. we had been on the bubble for a while and the blinds were 150 300. the button, who was had been in shove or fold mode for the last dozen hands or so went all in for 2200. I had JJ so I called he turned over Q 10o. 4 spades show up on the board to beat me. a few hands later I went out in 4th place. I am sure that calling was the right move but I am just looking for some clarification
 
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The_Pup

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Fairly standard bad beat, JJ about 70% over QTo. Your call was fine as it was his tourny on the line, not yours and you are probably ahead of his range. Most times you are winning there and will be in great shape to win the tourny.
 
acky100

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hahahahahahha that video is hilarious!!
 
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zackryan28

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To the original post:

Your play was pretty standard. I would only fold if the guy shoving was a super-tight, in which case his range would be AA thru 99, AK, and AQ. You would be behind that. But since he wasn't like that, good play.

Hilarious video also. I love some good poker-related humor :rolleyes:
 
Poker Orifice

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Fairly standard bad beat, JJ about 70% over QTo. Your call was fine as it was his tourny on the line, not yours and you are probably ahead of his range. Most times you are winning there and will be in great shape to win the tourny.

That's cuz you can see his cards ^.

Looks like a standard call.... but sucks as we'll have like 4bb's left if we lose & 'potentially' have a couple chances to shove (SB or BTN).. 'if' we get those chances, lol. So although you're stating 'his tourney' is on the line...so might our's be when we call & lose (we don't really have him covered by a huge amount). I'm assuming this is 'reg' speed sng w/o antes. I'm not suggesting it's a fold.
Wonder what SNG Wiz says when you plug this in (& what range we call here with... & with what range we plug in for villain).
 
ManicLombax

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Was just watching that video again as I was playing a 90 man MTT. Totally card dead, played 2 hands out of 45. Both were pocket jacks. Shove over 2 limpers, one calls, yay JJ vs. A9, have him dominated! Aw for **** sake....

:D
 
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The_Pup

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That's cuz you can see his cards ^.

Looks like a standard call.... but sucks as we'll have like 4bb's left if we lose & 'potentially' have a couple chances to shove (SB or BTN).. 'if' we get those chances, lol. So although you're stating 'his tourney' is on the line...so might our's be when we call & lose (we don't really have him covered by a huge amount). I'm assuming this is 'reg' speed sng w/o antes. I'm not suggesting it's a fold.
Wonder what SNG Wiz says when you plug this in (& what range we call here with... & with what range we plug in for villain).

Fair point, Orifice. I had interpreted our villain as being a lot looser than I was entitled to - I had read 'shove fold mode' as 'shove mode'. That said, I don't think the call is so bad - it very much depends on how the table is playing. If it is proving hard to steal as everyone is being aggressive, for example, a call makes more sense than at a passive table where relatively risk free steals are on offer.

Here's an ICM angle on our decision - figures are only rough as not all info is available. A fold leaves us with 25% of the prize, a call and loss with 13% and a win with 37%. Interestingly, we are looking at winning or losing the same amount of cash, so if we reckon to be better than 50% favourite a call is the way to go. All we are really fearing here is AA, KK, QQ.

I think the ICM figures are so close that our decision will depend on info not given in OP, such as style of other players, our reads, our skill level against others and so on.
 
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kyndlyon

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i would make that call all day. i play super tight on bubble, but JJ has to play (IMO).
 
fletchdad

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You say you were chip leader. How much did all the players have? I am going from a total of 13,500 chips, and it doesent compute. you had 3500, he had 2200, that leaves 7800. So how those stacks were is important to know here. Also how they were playing.

If button was in push/fold mode for 12+ hands, then someone was playing back at him, otherwise his stack would look different here.(?) unless he just lost a chunk. Or he was getting away with stealing then folding to 3 bet back and forth. Anyway, more info is needed IMO (post HH) since a number of decision making factors are not known. Relative Stacks, player reads, etc.

Why not wait till you can be the aggressor? Calling usually sucks more than pushing and being called. Even with a strong hand like JJ. I see a number of - possible - reasons to NOT call here. But it would depend on a lot of info that is not available. On the bubble, every decision should be made with consideration to you getting in the money. And JJ PF is gonna be a coin flip against a lot of hands. And losing that flip makes you much more possible to NOT get ITM.


edit:

repeated a lot of what has already been said, I guess I need to read responses first, then respond....lol at myself
 
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liguolong

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was the person who went all in on the 4th place? In that case, it should be a call since he must go all in very often to not get out. And, in normal structure, you win much more money by winning the tournament than getting 3rd place. Therefore, I think this should be a call.
 
JMTalbert

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I enjoy the 9 man SnG's so being profitable in them is big for my bank roll!

I like them because 33% of the players get paid. Compare that to your standard 10 - 12% and its a good deal! My biggest leak is the impatience. Playing JJ in that situation is not a bad call. You were 50% to win if all four players were in the hand and about 75% heads up...preflop. Since poker is to some extent a gamble, just decide if you are comfortable losing with that hand and odds before you call. With JJ, you should be. Its when you call with a good drawing , but not made hand (like KQ or KJ) because you think this or that about the other player's style and he flips over the AA.

I have been giving a lot of thought to the 9 man bubble because I have more 4th and 5th place finishes than I would like to admit. My current mindset is to try and wait as much as I can and hope that two of the other stacks go at it.

The situation is key, though. With blinds at 10% of everyone's stack, it is almost a shove or fold situation. Had the distribution of chips been different with say one big stack and two with mini's, you may have thought about folding the fish hooks, but probably not for very long!
 
JMTalbert

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I was using a calculator called Poker Helper. It assumes you don't know what the other player has. The assumption would be that your JJ would win 75% of the time heads up against all possible two cards after all five community cards are dealt.

You can't base odds on unknown cards. You likely only know the two that you hold and the 3 - 5 on the board. The odds of JJ vs Q10 are irrelevant to the OP's decision to call or not. JJ vs all possible hands or the opponent's range of possible hands (plus tournament situation, position, etc.) is the pertinent information to the decision.

Here is a chart:

http://www.westonpoker.com/pokerInfo/preFlopOdds.php

Here is the iphone App I was referring to:

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/epokerhelper/id288754505?mt=8

Let me know if using this information is off base, I am here to learn. Sometimes the odds to win for any given hand/board seem high. I always have to remember the opponents range aspect when deciding to call or not.
 
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You had 11.5 BB and one of the 5 better starting hand. Also, you said that the villain was in shove or fold mode so more likely he was on a steal. Then, I would have called and hope we are ahead further than a coin flip.

If you win the hand, you'll have chip to play in the money section of the tourney. A fold there and you'll go back to steal mode (10 BB and less).

Remember, a win is better than 2 third places. Don't feel bad to call in those situation because those are the one that will help you finishing first. ON this hand, you were unlucky. Next time, it will be on your side though so go ahead and keep calling in that situation.
 
PattyR

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I forget what thread it was in but somebody posted that video awhile ago and i have never laughed so hard to a poker video.

having just watched it now i laughed just as hard LOL. i showed it to my roommates who play poker as well and they all LOL'd
 
loopmeister

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Not sure what stakes you're playing, but BTN should be shoving very wide. The lower the stakes the tighter BTN will tend to be though.

Your calling range in this situation is typically around A8+ 77+

I'll see how wrong I am by checking against SNGwiz :p
 
loopmeister

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He he. Not too bad. Your stack sizes must be off, but assuming you and villains are correct, SnGWiz says

Average villain (22+ A2+ Any broadway, K7s+ ): Call with 55+ A9s+
Tight villain: 66+ AT+

You break even with villain's shoving range at 6%: 88+ AQ+ AJs+ and we know he's shoving wider'n that!
 
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