On The Bubble

I am sure this has happened to most of us one time oe another but it does pose a dilemma. I am in the BB, 888Poker $500 Daily Freeroll, am on the bubble with more than the average chip stack. My hand KK, 3 folds and then an all in that has me covered. The all in has been playing fairly conservatively. My dilemma, do I call the all in and risk elimination? I'm putting him on a pocket pair or AK,AQ etc,....The other option is fold and make the money and wait for further opportunities...the odds calculator puts me at about a 69% favourite against AK and much better against all pairs except AA...time to gamble...I call the all in...and yes he was trying to steal the blinds..had garbage...whew...don't know what the pros would recommend in this situ but this time the results were good...

hi,
great question.

I read long time ago, that even some pro's advise against all ins on bubble.
But, also depends.
Since you're playing freeroll, that means someone trying to steal most of the time, since quite a few other players tighten up, just to get through ITM to get min cash, and you can see time an time again (on freerolls) they will tighten up, then they will went all in (again) trying to make for it, and to stack up a bit.

Now, if you're in the big pay tourney, you need to consider your position, how much money is in the play, etc...
I have read something from Daniel N, long time ago on PS School, to lay down even AA just to get you through the bubble, and get you ITM, since you pay something to get in, and get your money back, and help your ROI.


Make sense?

Bubble boy

I've four that playing slower then the stacks under you. Fold when they fold. If I'm mid stacked. I'll fold A10. KQ ECT. To to make sure I can't lose if I don't play.. play tight be a bit. Aj go go go

It's an interesting spot, I think if you want to win the tournament its a call. If your trying to make the money its a fold. Letting go of a 69% advantage seems counter intuitive to me.

Sometimes even if they are bluffing you will still lose to a dirty run out. This happens to me a lot because I am an unlucky player so I tend to just fold to the money and then gamble. It is a losing play in the long run but I am screwed ever way, lol

Middle/High value tournament fold even AA when there is just 1 player to bust out and I'm with the average stack.
Why would I risk and even with 70% before flop favorite, when I can loose with some str8 or 2 pairs by others as in poker nothing is 100% except nut's. If there is someone with 5 10 BB I will wait and watch all the remaining tables for sure, use my time bank if that will give me advantage till last second.
There was an old quote: Better sparrow in hand then pigeon on the branch

I think it all depends on whether you have a bankroll or your just starting out building one. Im calling with a bank and folding without bank!

acemenow said:

It's an interesting spot, I think if you want to win the tournament its a call. If your trying to make the money its a fold. Letting go of a 69% advantage seems counter intuitive to me.

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This ^^

I had same problem with bubbles years ago..Now i just fold

KK is always a snap call preflop, unless stacks are very deep, or you are playing a satellite or DON. People get far to worked up about the bubble. If 90 places pay, it is no worse to go out as 91 than to go out as 491. In that latter case you also took a risk trying to chip up, and even on the bubble its also valuable to chip up, since the winner might get 100 times more than a min-casher. Its mostly a psycological thing, because that payout is so close, while with 491 left its still distant.

CDNMAN 42 said:

I am sure this has happened to most of us one time oe another but it does pose a dilemma. I am in the BB, 888Poker $500 Daily Freeroll, am on the bubble with more than the average chip stack. My hand KK, 3 folds and then an all in that has me covered. The all in has been playing fairly conservatively. My dilemma, do I call the all in and risk elimination? I'm putting him on a pocket pair or AK,AQ etc,....The other option is fold and make the money and wait for further opportunities...the Odds calculator puts me at about a 69% favourite against AK and much better against all pairs except AA...time to gamble...I call the all in...and yes he was trying to steal the blinds..had garbage...whew...don't know what the pros would recommend in this situ but this time the results were good...

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what is your goal in the tournament? get into the prizes, then pass, do you want to get into good prizes then play all the chips, this is my opinion

Dude is a free tournament and you have a monster in your hands, you just go all-in, and if you're out of luck (which is unlikely), you just go to rest without losing anything)))

dino said:

I have read something from Daniel N, long time ago on PS School, to lay down even AA just to get you through the bubble, and get you ITM, since you pay something to get in, and get your money back, and help your ROI.
Make sense?

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Great post, dino. Negreanu is my all-time poker hero but, contrary to his advice, and just like the thread OP, I cannot get away from KK on the bubble against just one villain. The odds of them having AA are just the same as on any hand, but I think the odds of them shoving without AA into a smaller stack preflop are higher on the bubble than any other time!

CDNMAN 42 said:

I am sure this has happened to most of us one time oe another but it does pose a dilemma. I am in the BB, 888Poker $500 Daily Freeroll, am on the bubble with more than the average chip stack. My hand KK, 3 folds and then an all in that has me covered. The all in has been playing fairly conservatively. My dilemma, do I call the all in and risk elimination? I'm putting him on a pocket pair or AK,AQ etc,....The other option is fold and make the money and wait for further opportunities...the Odds calculator puts me at about a 69% favourite against AK and much better against all pairs except AA...time to gamble...I call the all in...and yes he was trying to steal the blinds..had garbage...whew...don't know what the pros would recommend in this situ but this time the results were good...

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easy to answer: NEVER fold Kings


sometimes you are up against AA but the Chance equals with the 20% to suck out against them. therefor it's also mathematical the Right decision to call. no matter if it's on the bubble or not.


there are only 3 situations I would consider folding:
- bubble on a sat
- a big Tournament where the min cash means a lot and would boost my bankroll
- if I'm 90+% sure that he has AA (10% Chance of him not Holding AA < 20% suckout vs AA)


you are playing a freeroll and put him on a wide range. your call is 100% correct and I would be happy to call everytime in this Situation.

sorry for doublepost

dino said:

hi,
great question.

I read long time ago, that even some pro's advise against all ins on bubble.
But, also depends.
Since you're playing freeroll, that means someone trying to steal most of the time, since quite a few other players tighten up, just to get through ITM to get min cash, and you can see time an time again (on freerolls) they will tighten up, then they will went all in (again) trying to make for it, and to stack up a bit.
I have read something from Daniel N, long time ago on PS School, to lay down even AA just to get you through the bubble, and get you ITM, since you pay something to get in, and get your money back, and help your ROI
Make sense?

Click to expand...

sorry but to me it doesn't make sense and I can explain to you why:
1.) I doubt that pros or DN are telling others to fold Hands like AA or KK on the bubble as a Standard decision in tournaments. that's loosing Money and not a good strategy Overall. Maybe they were Talking About satellites or big tournaments like the wsop ME with 10k buy-in? that's something COMPLETLY different then a freeroll or 1$ buy-in online tournament
2.) you don't pay anything for a freeroll so your ROI is not meaningful.
3.) folding in the Money is the worst you could do for your ROI. if you have a 20% ITM% and mincash is less than 2x buy-in you are losing Money on the Long run. even if you have 30% which is above average, you are still not getting a positive ROI. Overall min-cash is worthless, you have to go for the win or at least for the FT to get a decent ROI% and you won't get there if you fold KK on the bubble. I would rather bust 19 times on the bubble and have 1 Deep run instead of 20 min-cashes. once you figure it out and Play more aggressive you will have deeper runs, trust me.

gravac said:

Middle/High value tournament fold even AA when there is just 1 player to bust out and I'm with the average stack.
Why would I risk and even with 70% before flop favorite, when I can loose with some str8 or 2 pairs by others as in poker nothing is 100% except nut's. If there is someone with 5 10 BB I will wait and watch all the remaining tables for sure, use my time bank if that will give me advantage till last second.
There was an old quote: Better sparrow in hand then pigeon on the branch

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like I wrote above, we are Talking About tournaments with no or low buy-in so why would you even think About folding AA or KK ? no good high stakes Player would fold AA to get the min-cash!
you want to 'risk' it with 70% because the best you can get is something like 80% preflop. there is no 100% Chance to win preflop and getting it in as a 70:30 fav is Always a good Play, even on the bubble!

nikoszwtos93 said:

I had same problem with bubbles years ago..Now i just fold

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read my post and think About it again. folding in the Money won't get you any further

I would fold with KK only in one case, if on the final table in front of me there would be a raise in 4BB or allin two or more players. you do not play with two kings then what card to play with? Wait until the BB eats you.

I dont want to come off inconsiderate but if you are folding the second nuts preflop (KK) then this may not be the game for you. Beginning, middle or stone cold bubble in the tournament I am snap calling KK - not doing such is simply over folding. Every pro, every chart, every strategy available should have us snapping off KK. Essentially we are only losing to one hand...if that's not enough to snap call I am not sure what is.

I have never going to fold kings on the bubble! With this premium hand, we can sometimes fly but if we are fighting for a win and not just for the minimum prize, we must not lose the opportunity to fill the stack!

When you have a monster hand like that with an above average stack, you have to go with it. Especially when bigger stacks are known to be bullies, we have to play our monster hands and level up even more.

if its not a satellite i dont fold KK or AA i want to make a deep run not just min cash

I dont think this is ever a fold unless you are in a satellite and have it basically wrapped up. You should want to make it deep into the tournament to make the larger money and the odds he has AA are slim. Yes, the opponent is tight but so what? That does not mean he has aces every time he open raises. You will lose to random hands at times but so will AA. No reason to fold here in a non satellite tournament. You are giving up too much of a chance to double up. Even if you put him on a range of AA, KK, QQ, and AK you are still ahead. Remember there are a lot of players that rightfully take advantage of the bubble so dont always assume there are monsters under the bed.

I see alot of KK hands and I have tryed slow playing them and aces pop! If I push early, might get 1 call and win more. If I have several bets to me it depends on pot size. If there are 4 players before me betting, I am going to assume there are cards they have that I would also want, like the other Kings.I see alot of the same players in the tables, so I pay attention to thier style of play and utilize my notes.