This is a discussion on bottom pair with OESD and flush draw shove on turn vs AA within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; Hi All,
I have a quick question on how to play bottom pair with OESD and Flush draw for whole stack on turn (on the
bottom pair with OESD and flush draw shove on turn vs AA
I have a quick question on how to play bottom pair with OESD and Flush draw for whole stack on turn (on the bubble of a 600 player £120 buy in event).
It's preflop blinds are 1000/2000/ante is 200
even one is playing reasonably tight.
BB (30500) (ABC player)
UTG2 has 102200 (TAG player)
MP3 has 83200 (LAG)
I have 72000 and is dealt 7d6d MP3
UTG2 min raises to 4000
MP1, MP3 (me) calls and big blind calls.
pot is 14800
UTG2 bets 6000
MP3 (me) calls
UTG2 bets 24000
the question is: should I shove or fold given I have OESD flush draw and bottom pair and I'm getting 2:1 to call on a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
All answers welcome.
20th September 2016, 1:33 PM
Online Poker at: PS
Well you say UTG2 is TAG so I will assume his range is tight 88+
He min raises for 2 bb out of 25, it's safe to say he has a medium hand hand(as with stronger he would raise bigger 3-5bb) !!this is just an assumption!!
He bets strong on a bord with A... might be a bluff, but you can ovbviously put him on A9s-AJo range I dont think calling here is good if he is TAG (although you might have seen this behaviour from this player before), you have 5 outs and runner-runners
Turn gives you 15 outs (for OESD anbd flush) (and 17 if you count 7ns but you can be dominadet with other sets) this gives you ~30% to hit OESD &/or flush (~34% if you count set of 7ns)
He is betting almost a pot, that is ~1/3 of you stack. Again he is TAG so he is holding strong card unelss you have seen him bluffing the hell out of him self. If you hit street this is iffy to as you can easely chop the pot as TJs can be at the lowest, but still in, part of his range.
This gives you a call of 30-35%(~1:2) on getting your hand (still having a possibility to be dominated if he has poket pais 9,8,A, Tx, suited dionds 9+) and ~2:1 on pot ods call commiting 1/3 of you stack. Leaving you in a situation where you HAVE TO be shoving or calling a shove with flushes and streets (and sets) that might be dominating you.
I would fold. But this is importaint to know that you op is TAG, because if you opps is aggro he could be easely bluffing to represent a strong A
but I might be reading to much in to it =)
20th September 2016, 2:09 PM
Poker at: Pokerstars
Game: Love Horse
on the bubble i would have folded preflop, but if you called pre I would have folded after the flop. It seems everytime someone has a bigger flush when you catch it. This is for online not live