Originally Posted by Everybodylovesdeuces
I have developed a preference for flatting and shoving any one card over on the flop rather than shoving pre flop provided I have enough chips to have some fold equity on the flop. If they have nothing, then you're not giving up any equity. If they have two overs, then you're denying them all 5 cards. yes sometimes you get sucked out on by a hand that may have folded to the shove pre flop like J9, but sometimes you get call by a hand like A6 when a 6 comes out on the flop.
So, this approach used to be standard for me (maybe I learned it from you?). But lately I've been rethinking it; especially as a result of trying to think about everything in terms of ranges.
By jamming preflop we get called by all/most bigger pairs as well as many "2 broadway". Type of hands such as AT+. If we put him on a raising range of any pair, any ace and any 2 broadway cards (28%). Then we have 55% equity vs his raising range. So we usually get our stack in ahead. What will he call with? He'll probably call with AT+ and pocket pairs 88+. So the times we get called we only have 40% equity...but with fold equity it's still a reasonable move.
Contrast that with flatting and jamming on a safe flop.
If we assign him the same 28% opening range then we've got the same 55% equity when we make the preflop call. On a relatively safe flop of 46T rainbow we've got 60% equity vs his range. So if he checks and we jam, it looks on the surface like we're getting our stack in as a bigger favorite than preflop (60% vs 55%). So it appears like we've improved our situation.
But look what happens when you plug in his calling range. If we assume he'll only call with sets, top pair or an overpair our equity is now a puny 13%!!! If he's a bit looser and calls us with A6 and A4 we've got 26% equity which is better, but far from great. If we think he's really frisky and will check call with AK as well our equity shoots up to 33% but still not great.
So while it seems beneficial to wait for a safe flop before committing your stack, in reality you're making a bet that nearly always folds out worse hands and only gets called by better hands. It seems we would benefit by grabbing some fold equity against hands that could suck out and getting our stack in vs his whole range rather than just the top of his range.
It seems to me like the line you describe would be better suited to bluffs and semi bluffs where you defend with something like KQ and they check the flop and now you jam as a bluff, potentially getting better hands to fold (like A hi and tiny pairs).
I don't know if my thinking is correct on this or not. I welcome feedback.