Blindly shoving all your chips....

S

sKiTzo

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 7, 2012
Total posts
34
Chips
0
The all-in pre-flop....I'm trying to understand the logic behind it. It's a possible quick come-up that comes with a possible quick elimination. Also, if you do have 2 really good cards and nobody calls, then you just idiotically wasted a good hand. I find that a lot of times, MTT's (towards the end), turn into this all-in luckfest where if you want to get any action before your stack dwindles to nothing, you have to just pick a hand and hope for the best. I've been told that people have the theory that it's just a luckfest when in actual fact, when effective blinds start getting 25bb and lower this is where you will notice the stronger/weaker players.
Usually if you have a very good end game, you will fair a ton better than your average player and the luckfest as you describe is actually a veryskillful end game process in which the better players will always come out on top over the long term. SKill doesn't go out the window at all; only if you're actually one of the players who can't play end game optimally then it does become a much more gambling/luck process for yourself.

Coupla things - are these really the stronger/experienced/good players doing this? And if so, can someone explain this optimal end-game play, and how it isn't mostly luck?
 
duggs

duggs

Killing me softly
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 28, 2011
Total posts
9,512
Awards
2
Chips
0
its definitely the better playings push/folding optimally, but its a relatively basic tool to most MTT regs compared with 25-60bb where most of their edge is realised.
 
micalupagoo

micalupagoo

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Mar 16, 2008
Total posts
7,476
Awards
2
Chips
141
well,
knowing some ppl here than run deep time and time again, its def not luck
its knowing when to pick the spots, implied odds,will opponents call/raise/fold 3bets-4bets...knowing when to open your range, and knowing when you're beat.
its something that takes time, and even the pros still read and study the game- review hand histories to find leaks...
the more I keep learning the more I know theres soooo much more to learn.
and I think ive improved greatly since I joined this amazing forum!
hope some understanding comes to you (too me too:))
ps online is way better cuz you can multi tbl many games 24hrs a day and dont have to travel to a casino
 
I

ibsiegel

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 8, 2012
Total posts
153
Chips
0
i struggle with this myself, i agree that if you really have two great cards why would you force out the fish instead of bait them. Now I don't mind calling the all in if i am sitting solid or have seen them do this with junk and have pretty good high cards. But typically i am pretty tight and dont like the preflop all in at all, nor do i like preflop raises in omaha. I feel like its playing the lottery and not poker.
 
D

doomasiggy

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 24, 2011
Total posts
1,915
Chips
0
And if so, can someone explain this optimal end-game play, and how it isn't mostly luck?

Because you're leveraging fold equity. Usually when you get to the stage where it's shove fold you aren't shoving with the intent of being called.

i struggle with this myself, i agree that if you really have two great cards why would you force out the fish instead of bait them.

Because fish are usually passive.

But typically i am pretty tight and dont like the preflop all in at all, nor do i like preflop raises in omaha. I feel like its playing the lottery and not poker.

If you don't raise preflop in any type of poker you're playing it wrong. And if you aren't shoving preflop in mtt's/sng's short stacked you're playing it wrong.
 
S

sKiTzo

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 7, 2012
Total posts
34
Chips
0
Because you're leveraging fold equity. Usually when you get to the stage where it's shove fold you aren't shoving with the intent of being called.
So you are hoping they don't call? Hoping they don't call doesn't sound confident enough to risk all your chips. I don't see how this play is considered the more skillful...?
 
S

sKiTzo

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 7, 2012
Total posts
34
Chips
0
If you don't raise preflop in any type of poker you're playing it wrong. And if you aren't shoving preflop in mtt's/sng's short stacked you're playing it wrong.
I'm just trying to figure out why that is?
 
duggs

duggs

Killing me softly
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 28, 2011
Total posts
9,512
Awards
2
Chips
0
for example, blind v blind 15bb eff, if someone only calls a shove with 99+ AJs+ AQo+, do we need to look at our cards before shoving?
 
D

doomasiggy

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 24, 2011
Total posts
1,915
Chips
0
So you are hoping they don't call? Hoping they don't call doesn't sound confident enough to risk all your chips. I don't see how this play is considered the more skillful...?

Because picking shove fold spots means that you're trying to be aggressive, understand what your stack is worth in real terms, and are trying not to get blinded out; whereas trying to see the flop short stacked means you're limping/calling and praying you hit big.

duggs said:
for example, blind v blind 15bb eff, if someone only calls a shove with 99+ AJs+ AQo+, do we need to look at our cards before shoving?

Gonna give you the answer to this one to explain my point better.

In this situation, if we were to shove say, 22 or something, we're winning roughly 36% of the time and losing 64%. But this assumes that we get called. We also have fold equity; which is a chance that he will fold. A very large chance if he only shoves 99+/AJs+/AQo+; with that range he is only calling 6% of the time. That means 94% of the time we pick up the blinds+antes without having to see a flop.

This is important when we're short stacked because usually, the blinds+antes represent a significant proportion of our stack. Say the blinds are 300/600 with a 50 ante 9 handed, the blinds+antes in that scenario =1350, if we have 15bb we have a 9000 stack. That means picking up the pot preflop without seeing the flop means that we increase our stack by 15%; and because of the way tourney dollars are valued, that is a massive increase in real terms. Not to mention we force the player next to us to fold his bb without giving him a chance to improve; and, if we're lucky enough to double up before the blinds go up instead of going from 9k to 18k, we'll go from 12.5k to 25k.

Compare the following, we're 15bb deep in the sb. We limp bvb and the bb shoves over us, we fold. We've now lost 6% of our stack, and we've increased the bb stack (assuming he has 15bb as well) by 18%, which means we've made a worse play than we would have if we'd just open folded.

TL;DR

Shoving preflop is better because it means you understand what your stack size is actually worth, how to be aggressive, and how to improve your chances of winning and mtt/sng in the long term.
 
B

Bowman

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 29, 2012
Total posts
536
Chips
0
It's online play. Live tables, you see this not every hand. I think it's just part of online gaming. Probably even teams where they talk with eachother and each with a huge stack raises so high that the small guy is most likely to fold because he see's two guys going deep.
Eventually, one will call either because they have to or because they hold a very strong hand. Gotta play 'em and gotta sit on 'em too sometimes.
Hopefully I can knock 'em out for the table.
 
D

doomasiggy

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 24, 2011
Total posts
1,915
Chips
0
It's online play. Live tables, you see this not every hand. I think it's just part of online gaming. Probably even teams where they talk with eachother and each with a huge stack raises so high that the small guy is most likely to fold because he see's two guys going deep.
Eventually, one will call either because they have to or because they hold a very strong hand. Gotta play 'em and gotta sit on 'em too sometimes.
Hopefully I can knock 'em out for the table.

sarcasm?
 
I

ibsiegel

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 8, 2012
Total posts
153
Chips
0
If you don't raise preflop in any type of poker you're playing it wrong. And if you aren't shoving preflop in mtt's/sng's short stacked you're playing it wrong.[/QUOTE]

If you are raising preflop in Omaha lets say AA you are throwing your money away 70% of the time. When forced to use 2 of 4 and 3 of 5 your odds of catching the A with a pair on the board are alot less than catching a straight with 2 connectors or a flush with 2 sets suited. Its not the same as collecting blinds as in most Omaha games or stud or razz they are limit or pot limit so pre-flop there is very little in the pot for you to match making your raise nothing more than a pot builder or a donation. Either way most of the time the real move comes after the flop where you have a better idea of what your odds of winning really are.



So i get what you are saying about short stacked late in a tourney trying to steal blinds but at the same time if you are short stacked and everyone else isnt and as you say you have a 36% chance at winning wouldn't you say the big stacks are gonna call putting you in the 64% loser bracket?
 
duggs

duggs

Killing me softly
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 28, 2011
Total posts
9,512
Awards
2
Chips
0
If you don't raise preflop in any type of poker you're playing it wrong. And if you aren't shoving preflop in mtt's/sng's short stacked you're playing it wrong.

If you are raising preflop in Omaha lets say AA you are throwing your money away 70% of the time. When forced to use 2 of 4 and 3 of 5 your odds of catching the A with a pair on the board are alot less than catching a straight with 2 connectors or a flush with 2 sets suited. Its not the same as collecting blinds as in most Omaha games or stud or razz they are limit or pot limit so pre-flop there is very little in the pot for you to match making your raise nothing more than a pot builder or a donation. Either way most of the time the real move comes after the flop where you have a better idea of what your odds of winning really are.



So i get what you are saying about short stacked late in a tourney trying to steal blinds but at the same time if you are short stacked and everyone else isnt and as you say you have a 36% chance at winning wouldn't you say the big stacks are gonna call putting you in the 64% loser bracket?[/QUOTE]

1/ always pot AAxx pre in omaha
2/ them calling more often widens their calling range, which means we have more equity when called, and if they are calling wider it means we cant now shove more hands that get called by a range they beat, where as before 88=22, if they call more often 88 now dominates 77-22 which increases its equity.
3/ you are missing the frequency, we have 36% equity when called, which happens 6% of the time, so around 4% of the time we bust, 2% of the time we double up, and 94% of the time we pick up the pot uncontested.
 
LuckyBundy13

LuckyBundy13

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 12, 2013
Total posts
512
Chips
0
Usually you'll see it done in the smaller stakes. I don't usually see this in mid to high stakes unless it's a rebuy. They do say you'll either win a small pot w/ premiums or lose a ton. I don't do it, wouldn't recommend it to anyone as well. The optimal way to play tourneys is to stay above the structure. Try not to put yourself in those push/fold spots. I understand it's all dependent on the tournament structure as well.
 
I

ibsiegel

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 8, 2012
Total posts
153
Chips
0
1/ always pot AAxx pre in omaha
2/ them calling more often widens their calling range, which means we have more equity when called, and if they are calling wider it means we cant now shove more hands that get called by a range they beat, where as before 88=22, if they call more often 88 now dominates 77-22 which increases its equity.
3/ you are missing the frequency, we have 36% equity when called, which happens 6% of the time, so around 4% of the time we bust, 2% of the time we double up, and 94% of the time we pick up the pot uncontested.[/QUOTE]



so you are saying that 94% of the time that you shove short stacked you aren't called? Really?. I watch at least 70% of short stack shoves get called by big stacks.
 
I

ibsiegel

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 8, 2012
Total posts
153
Chips
0
this is why i hate pre-flop all in.................. its a lottery
I am riveraise72
Hand#3220CDD349001585 - $1,000 bankroll Freeroll Satellite T13488969 -- FREEROLL -- $0 + $0 -- 10 Max -- Table 29 -- 60/300/600 NL Hold'em -- 2013/01/28 - 10:32:59
Dealer: Seat 7
Seat 1: Crazd1 (6,634 in chips)
Seat 2: ChoMoJoe!! (5,084 in chips)
Seat 3: riveraise12 (33,115 in chips)
Seat 5: kgs77 (40,042 in chips)
Seat 6: missimarie (4,550 in chips)
Seat 7: forair (3,234 in chips)
Seat 9: AcesBamBam (9,498 in chips)
Seat 10: d4care (21,277 in chips)
Crazd1: posts ante of 60
ChoMoJoe!!: posts ante of 60
riveraise12: posts ante of 60
kgs77: posts ante of 60
missimarie: posts ante of 60
forair: posts ante of 60
AcesBamBam: posts ante of 60
d4care: posts ante of 60
AcesBamBam: posts small blind 300
d4care: posts big blind 600
Dealt to riveraise12 [Ks,Kh]
Crazd1: folds
ChoMoJoe!!: raises to 1,590
riveraise12: raises to 6,150
kgs77: is all in 39,982
missimarie: folds
forair: folds
AcesBamBam: folds
d4care: folds
ChoMoJoe!!: folds
riveraise12: is all in 26,905
kgs77: returns uncalled bet 6,927
riveraise12: shows [Ks Kh]
kgs77: shows [Qc Qs]
*** FLOP *** [4h,2c,2h]
*** TURN *** [Qh]
*** RIVER *** [8h]
***SHOW DOWN***
ChoMoJoe!! chats: lmao had 1010
kgs77 wins 69,080 with Full House Queens full of deuces
riveraise12 finished 34 out of 333 players.
 
joker131

joker131

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 6, 2006
Total posts
706
Chips
0
final table play , aggresion wins the day, possition and the shove win a lot off hands. the QQ v KK. well thats poker. and KK wins 90% off the time
 
Lucothefish

Lucothefish

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 18, 2009
Total posts
656
Chips
0
final table play , aggresion wins the day, possition and the shove win a lot off hands. the QQ v KK. well thats poker. and KK wins 90% off the time

It's more like 80% :)
 
I

inflnlte

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
Jan 23, 2013
Total posts
241
Chips
0
I really think it depends on how the table is playing and what the avg stack at the table is. If most players are over 20bbs, I dont like opening all in. I normally would just min raise and try to pick off some light 3bet shoves. If im under 15, I just go all in or fold.
 
S

sKiTzo

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 7, 2012
Total posts
34
Chips
0
In this situation, if we were to shove say, 22 or something, we're winning roughly 36% of the time and losing 64%. But this assumes that we get called. We also have fold equity;.

I totally understand what you are saying but the 64% fold equity doesn't always materialize. I'd say 85% of the time, at least one person calls. Even with how good it all looks on paper, if your style of play is to blindly put all your chips in the pot before at least seeing the flop, then you have resolved to minimize the skill involved in the game, and go with luck - and forcing everyone else to do the same. It's luck by default because there are still 5 cards noone has seen yet. I guess It's a good way for the less skilled players to bring everyone down to their level...
 
D

doomasiggy

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 24, 2011
Total posts
1,915
Chips
0
I totally understand what you are saying but the 64% fold equity doesn't always materialize.

You don't understand what I'm saying. The 64% is not the amount of time that the person folds, the 64% is the amount of time we lose when the bb calls. However in the scenario we're talking about the bb only calls 6% of the time; which means that 94% of the time they fold and we pick up 1350 without having to see the flop.

I'd say 85% of the time, at least one person calls.

If we're shoving blind vs blind only one person can call. Obvs if we're shoving from different position we change the range of hands that we shove in order to take into account the fact that it's more likely we get called.

Even with how good it all looks on paper, if your style of play is to blindly put all your chips in the pot before at least seeing the flop, then you have resolved to minimize the skill involved in the game, and go with luck -

You really haven't. It means you understand the odds involved and you're making a sensible wager.

and forcing everyone else to do the same. It's luck by default because there are still 5 cards noone has seen yet. I guess It's a good way for the less skilled players to bring everyone down to their level...

The less skilled players are the ones that try to see the flop short stacked.

ibsiegel said:
this is why i hate pre-flop all in.................. its a lottery

This is just silly.
 
Seraphim

Seraphim

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 21, 2012
Total posts
514
Chips
0
This guy is hopeless I'm trying to figure if this is how most micro players think.
 
Lucothefish

Lucothefish

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 18, 2009
Total posts
656
Chips
0
This guy is hopeless I'm trying to figure if this is how most micro players think.

Well to be fair a surprising amount of good tournament play is counter-intuitive, right from the very first bit of advice most players receive:

- 'tighten up'.
- 'LOL how can you win more by playing less hands? ur a moron'
- 'Just do eet'

The OP has been given some advice that runs against his current thinking and he's trying to understand why it's the correct play. It is to his credit that he has done this.

sKiTzo, the whole concept behind push/fold is just mathematics. It has been mathematically shown that there are situations where pushing any two cards has a positive expectation - it will win you more chips than it costs you in the long run. I suggest reading up on expected value (EV) with some holdem examples, hopefully things will become clearer.

Basically we say "if the pot is X chips and villain calls with A% of his range, we can profitably push Y chips in with B% of our range because":

(chips we win when they fold) + (chips won when we get called and still win) >>>>> (chips lost we get called and lose)

Sometimes B is 100%, that's all.
 
C

con1

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
May 2, 2012
Total posts
10
Chips
0
I dont know if i am correct but if I have 15bbs I should be in a waiting mode and try to pick off one of the all ins with a good hand and would it be a better to think about my ROI tis late in the touny
 
Poker Chips - History of Chips
Top