re: Poker & Blindly shoving all your chips....
Originally Posted by sKiTzo
So you are hoping they don't call? Hoping they don't call doesn't sound confident enough to risk all your chips. I don't see how this play is considered the more skillful...?
Because picking shove fold spots means that you're trying to be aggressive, understand what your stack is worth in real terms, and are trying not to get blinded out; whereas trying to see the flop short stacked means you're limping/calling and praying you hit big.
Originally Posted by duggs
for example, blind v blind 15bb eff, if someone only calls a shove with 99+ AJs+ AQo+, do we need to look at our cards before shoving?
Gonna give you the answer to this one to explain my point better.
In this situation, if we were to shove say, 22 or something, we're winning roughly 36% of the time and losing 64%. But this assumes that we get called. We also have fold equity
; which is a chance that he will fold. A very large chance if he only shoves 99+/AJs+/AQo+; with that range he is only calling 6% of the time. That means 94% of the time we pick up the blinds+antes without having to see a flop.
This is important when we're short stacked because usually, the blinds+antes represent a significant proportion of our stack. Say the blinds are 300/600 with a 50 ante 9 handed, the blinds+antes in that scenario =1350, if we have 15bb we have a 9000 stack. That means picking up the pot preflop without seeing the flop means that we increase our stack by 15%; and because of the way tourney dollars are valued, that is a massive increase in real terms. Not to mention we force the player next to us to fold his bb without giving him a chance to improve; and, if we're lucky enough to double up before the blinds go up instead of going from 9k to 18k, we'll go from 12.5k to 25k.
Compare the following, we're 15bb deep in the sb. We limp bvb and the bb shoves over us, we fold. We've now lost 6% of our stack, and we've increased the bb stack (assuming he has 15bb as well) by 18%, which means we've made a worse play than we would have if we'd just open folded.
Shoving preflop is better because it means you understand what your stack size is actually worth, how to be aggressive, and how to improve your chances of winning and mtt/sng in the long term.