Bad shove in DON bubble?

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MickMurrr19

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Hero(UTG)1420: Ah Jh
MP1 3374
CO 1427
BTN 2014: 3c 3h
SB 4028
BB 2737

I open shove hoping to steal the blinds and antes for survival and get called by the button with threes. According to ICM, you need at least 83% equity to break even on a call. In spots like this, are these shoves +EV and just unlucky when you bubble on a lost coin flip?
 
horizon12

horizon12

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correct shove, you need be more aggressive on the bubble...
 
eidikos

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hi
i think it was the right move there
with 10bb and on the bubble you must shove aj there
only way that this is a wrong move is when an opponent have a very small stack (4bb or less)
 
theboss

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You played it right. The questionable play there was the button calling with 33 on the bubble, but there is nothing you can do about that. Not much you can learn from that hand.Forget about it and move forward, it was just a flip.
 
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gklcap

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You played it right. The questionable play there was the button calling with 33 on the bubble, but there is nothing you can do about that. Not much you can learn from that hand.Forget about it and move forward, it was just a flip.

Why is that a questionable play? Would you say the same thing if he had say 99 or even TT? Because there is only 2-4% difference between those hands and 33 in this spot. Villain wasn't very deep either. Since Hero is less than 10BB deep, Villain would know that his shoving range is pretty wide.

Btw OP, AJs is an insta shove on the bubble with less than 10BB left.
 
theboss

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You cannot put 33 and TT in the same category there. It is a big mistake. Villain was not very deep but would have to risk 75% of his stack in that hand which is not smart to do with 33 in that spot. He could wait a couple of rounds and find a better spot to put it all in and double up or steal the blinds and make it in the money. Villain knows that heros shoving range is wide and thats why 99 and TT are way better than 33 to put it in with. TT for example are in very good shape against hands like K10s, K9s, K8s, Q10s,Q9s, J10s, J9s and many Axs(such as A2,A3,A4,A5,A6,A7,A9,A10) and block some high straights etc etc , all hands that are in heros range. So it is obvious that threes and tens are not to be put in the same category and making a call there with threes is not a good move and comparing that hand with 99 or TT is wrong because they are not even close. There is a huge chaotic difference between them._
 
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gklcap

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You cannot put 33 and TT in the same category there. It is a big mistake. Villain was not very deep but would have to risk 75% of his stack in that hand which is not smart to do with 33 in that spot. He could wait a couple of rounds and find a better spot to put it all in and double up or steal the blinds and make it in the money. Villain knows that heros shoving range is wide and thats why 99 and TT are way better than 33 to put it in with. TT for example are in very good shape against hands like K10s, K9s, K8s, Q10s,Q9s, J10s, J9s and many Axs(such as A2,A3,A4,A5,A6,A7,A9,A10) and block some high straights etc etc , all hands that are in heros range. So it is obvious that threes and tens are not to be put in the same category and making a call there with threes is not a good move and comparing that hand with 99 or TT is wrong because they are not even close. There is a huge chaotic difference between them._

I think I phrased my question vaguely in the previous post. I used TT as an example because what I meant to ask was, assuming that Villain put Hero on a Broadway range, and knew he'd be up against 2 overcards, would that justify a call with 33? Because in this scenario, having 33 and TT is pretty much the same.
 
Sil3ntness

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Also you are giving villain too much credit. You can't just put someone on a narrow range of two broadway cards. Their call/allin range could be really wide or really tight depending on the player and their stack size.

The guy with 33 made a bad call IMO. Anytime you're calling with 33 you have to deal with flips and the chance of being counterfeited.

For example the board goes 44556-> 27 off suit would beat 33 because it has the better kicker (where as 33 has NO kicker).

The guy's stack was way too small to be calling with 33. The reason why TT is a better call is because you're beating WAY MORE hands. TT > 22-99 AND you're dominating hands like ATs, JTs, etc.

Only hands TT is flipping with is KJ+ and dominated by JJ+. Lot less hands as you can see.

Equilab is your friend:

33 vs random: 53.69%
TT vs random: 75.01% (big difference)

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But yeah again calling off 3/4ths of your stack with 33 is terribad. I believe your shove was correct and villain made a loose call. Oh well that's poker!
 
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gklcap

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I don't really play SNGs, so I wouldn't really know, but doesn't conventional wisdom say that Hero will be shoving a much tighter range from UTG?
 
Sil3ntness

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I don't really play SNGs, so I wouldn't really know, but doesn't conventional wisdom say that Hero will be shoving a much tighter range from UTG?

AJs is tight. Also Hero has less than 10 BBs and could easily scoop up the blinds & antes with fold equity alone.
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LOL funny enough I had this exact situation happened today.

Guy called my shove with 33 and his pocket pair was counterfeited on a 4466x flop. My ace high was enough to win. (I had AJ too)
 
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MickMurrr19

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Due to the flat payout structure of 10 handed DON sngs, ICM dictates an extremely tight strategy and survival is more relevant than chip accumulation. Of course to survive however, you must steal blinds and antes every now and then to avoid blinding out. If my M is less than 10 by the 6th level (12/60/120), I shove any two when folded to in SB or BTN.

Here is the equity you need to break even on a call based on the number of players...
10- 50%
9- 55%
8- 62.5%
7- 71.4%
6(bubble)- 83.3%

At the $1.50 games I play, people are limp calling all in or snap over-shoving in the blinds with any PP, QJo+, A9+... Occasionally, you can throw any suited ace and a few suited(sometimes offsuit) connectors in there as well.

Because tournament equity in terms of ICM is more important, getting in with the best hand at face value is not my primary goal. If it's 8 or 9 handed and I shove Q9o on the BTN and get called by 88 by one of the blinds, am I profiting by inducing a mistake from villain? It's 8 or handed and for the call to be profitable he needs at least 55 or 62% to break even. Pocket eights are only winning about 54% against Q9.

Basically, do we gain when villain calls with insufficient equity despite the fact that his hand is better at face value?
 
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hffjd2000

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Whats the blind level here?

CO is also short stack as you.

Tough spot indeed because of a make or break hand at an unfavorable position.
 
rock0001

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yes i think you made the right play, maybe i would just make a 3bb raise and then consider to fold if villain shoves all in. in double or nothing sng its the same to finish 5th or 1st so risking your entire stack in this spot isnt bad however i think i would have played more cautious and just make a raise and then call or fold the shove according to villain style of play.
 
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MickMurrr19

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yes i think you made the right play, maybe i would just make a 3bb raise and then consider to fold if villain shoves all in. in double or nothing sng its the same to finish 5th or 1st so risking your entire stack in this spot isnt bad however i think i would have played more cautious and just make a raise and then call or fold the shove according to villain style of play.

The thing is if I raise/fold I'll be a severe shorstack with less than 5bb and be forced to shove any two in a good spot. I'd rather shove and reduce the possibility of being pushed off my hand or having to "play poker" post flop which presents a whole array of difficult decisions.
 
VGShaa

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agree, correct shove, your opponent has made terrible call, if im not mistake his had 2014 chips, he call y with almost 70 % of his stack
 
therealslomo

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I believe this to be the correct play in this situation.
 
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