Is This Bad Logic?

I’m in a live $210 buy-in event with $30K to start and 30 minute levels at my local casino. This event is a re-entry event and re-entries are allowed up until the second break, 4 hours and 8 levels in.

The blinds in level 8 are $500/$1K/$100 and my stack is around $32K and the break starts as I am in this hand. I’m on the dealer button and there are 3, $1k limpers ahead of me, one from early position. I’m dealt and raise to $7K (4x with 32BB plus 3, $1K limps). The BB calls as well with about ~$90K back as does the LP position limper with ~$20K back and 3 players go to the flop.

Pot: $24,400

Flop:

The BB checks, the LP player tries to fold but is informed that be must take the free-check (house rule), and I bet for protection and value and wager $8500; the BB then C/R all-in and the LP limper folds.

The Big Blind:

The player in the big blind was a hyper-aggressive player that had already experienced a full swing being as high as $150K and as low as $5K. He had been caught with some ridiculous bluffs, but got paid for his image a few times as well. This was also not the first time he had C/R all-in.

I know that any heart draw is in his range here, but also are two pair combos and even flopped flushes. Basically his range is pretty large and either crushes a pair of aces, or doesn’t. I thought about this situation in terms of 50/50; it’s either one or the other – if I lose the 50/50 I can go buy another stack that’s equal to the stack I currently have.

I call – he shows

I don’t like to re-enter in these events, but in this case I didn’t feel it was too bad of an option. I simply purchased another stack for $210 and received another $30K stack. In the end, it cost me $210 and ~$2K in chips to make this call; but on the flip side of the coin I would have had nearly $100K with the average stack around $40K to $50K.

I know in a re-buy event this kind of thought process would be very condonable, but this isn’t a re-buy, it’s a re-entry event; same logic? Or am I out to lunch?

You have to realize that the logic in a re-entry is similar to a re-buy, the key difference is that you need to place higher in a re-entry as each re-entry increases the player pool and can result in more places paid.


Flop: Don't like the 8500 flop bet. If villian hyper-lag has any piece of the flop, you're giving him 3:1 direct (5:1 implied). Unless this was your plan to coax him into pushing back into you, then you did great. With only 25k left in your stack, you only have a pot sized bet left.

With half your chips already invested. This is a call IMO. If you only had say 5k invested... I insta muck and move on. But you had 15k in.... Think you are getting a good price especially since he check raised often and seems crazy


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I don't think I would of called his all-in. But then again I just would of played that hand a totally different style. I for sure was not coming out betting on that flop. But then again, that just leads to him slowplaying that nut flush he flopped.

aznman08 said:

You have to realize that the logic in a re-entry is similar to a re-buy, the key difference is that you need to place higher in a re-entry as each re-entry increases the player pool and can result in more places paid.

Flop: Don't like the 8500 flop bet. If villian hyper-lag has any piece of the flop, you're giving him 3:1 direct (5:1 implied). Unless this was your plan to coax him into pushing back into you, then you did great. With only 25k left in your stack, you only have a pot sized bet left.

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My plan was protection from a LAG player’s draw range; I just wanted him to fold to be perfectly honest. His range was so large and I had virtually no read on him– case in point, he called a large pre-flop raise OOP with a K8 – probably because it was suited I’m sure; K8 is not a hand I would normally put in a players OOP for 10% stack with 3 players to act after range.

If you don’t like the $8500, what do you suggest? All-in? $7500? Check/Fold? If I make it $7000 or less he is going to C/R all-in based on principle alone; we know in this case that wouldn’t have mattered but this guy was taking advantage all day of other players’ poor bet sizing.

IMO I committed myself to this pot anyway with my flop bet, so maybe I should have just shoved the flop; I would have been snapped off here, but it may be the better play.

make it like 12-15k preflop and jam flops. If they want to spew chips against you, so be it.

Sizing pre is on the large side, but is fine vs very bad players.

I am very happily just shoving all in on this flop, and really dislike betting small on it. We have the best hand on this flop nearly always and will get called by any part of their range that hit it, and any part of their range that missed won't put in chips anyways.

ssbn743 said:

IMO I committed myself to this pot anyway with my flop bet, so maybe I should have just shoved the flop; I would have been snapped off here, but it may be the better play.

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Well you stated the reasons for shoving the flop yourself. Betting small to protect against draws is not a good idea since you do offer them odds and in worse cases, they can use their aggression to put you into iffy spots.

You should not have made such a strong c-bet in a multi-caller pot on such a wet board, it reduces your chances of getting away from the hand but anyways, you should have found your fold button when villain check raised, it was not that tough a decision on that board afterall. I am just saying you should have sniffed it out, or atleast i would have because as soon as i read we got check shoved i was playing the hand as it were mine and i did fold before i saw villain's hand.

I would blame your instincts instead of logic. :embarasse

suby_rafael said:

You should not have made such a strong c-bet in a multi-caller pot on such a wet board, it reduces your chances of getting away from the hand but anyways, you should have found your fold button when villain check raised, it was not that tough a decision on that board afterall. I am just saying you should have sniffed it out, or atleast i would have because as soon as i read we got check shoved i was playing the hand as it were mine and i did fold before i saw villain's hand.

I would blame your instincts instead of logic. :embarasse

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Well, that’s the whole point of this thread – my instincts said fold, absolutely; logic dictated that I was probably 50/50 (he could have a heart draw too, maybe 67 or KQ with one heart, he could even have Ax with x of hearts) with a re-entry option for a comparable stack.

As far as the C-bet goes it wasn’t very strong at all, just a little more than 1/3 of the pot. I suppose I could have C-bet more like $7500 but I think the difference between that and $8500 is virtually non-existent. Combined with my pre-flop raise, $7500 is still 45% of my stack. As played with the $8500, I had over 60% of my chips in on the flop – which is why I should have just shoved, IMO.

Nonetheless, this thread is about the call, I could fold to a $16K stack, or take a 50/50 and buy another $30K stack; if I win the 50/50 I have $100K+.

Your cbet on the flop is rather questionable.And again a C/R usually indicates a monster hand and a trap.I would consider a fold.

I can't say it was a bad move, it was just that you couldn't really place him on a hand like that

joe777 said:

Your cbet on the flop is rather questionable.And again a C/R usually indicates a monster hand and a trap.I would consider a fold.

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In a freezeout, I would consider a fold.

This is a rebuy event. If you fold and leave yourself with a 15k stack, the clock is almost definitely going to run out on level 8, and you won't be able to rebuy anymore.

For what it's worth, I don't think you're 50/50 here, as you alluded to. I know you said that he was playing super crazy...even if he only has AK beat 50% of the time, you are crushed (whether it is two pair, or a flush). If AK is the best hand 50% of the time, he is going to have a ton of outs (ie, if he has one heart he will hit a flush 35% of the time). I think you are highly overrestimating how often you expect AK with no heart to win, even vs a LAG player.

However, if you're comfortable re-buying, I'd just call here, and get another stack ASAP. There is no reason to fold, leave yourself with 15K, and try and find a better spot to double up before level 8 ends.

Edit: On second thought, it might be better to fold here, and then literally shove all-in preflop every hand. If you double-up to 30 or 35k, then that's as good as a rebuy. And if you bust, just go re-buy as planned. Even if you go all in with 27 and get called by AK, the 27 will still win like 40% of the time.

For what it's worth, everything above is about your decision after getting check/raised on the flop. I personally would have raised more pre-flop, and made a pot size bet (or, ultimately, go all-in) on the flop). To even consider folding after sticking 50% of your stack in isn't the best play in the long run.

Just my opinion.

sam1chips said:

In a freezeout, I would consider a fold.
This is a rebuy event. If you fold and leave yourself with a 15k stack, the clock is almost definitely going to run out on level 8, and you won't be able to rebuy anymore.

For what it's worth, I don't think you're 50/50 here, as you alluded to. I know you said that he was playing super crazy...even if he only has AK beat 50% of the time, you are crushed (whether it is two pair, or a flush). If AK is the best hand 50% of the time, he is going to have a ton of outs (ie, if he has one heart he will hit a flush 35% of the time). I think you are highly overrestimating how often you expect AK with no heart to win, even vs a LAG player.

However, if you're comfortable re-buying, I'd just call here, and get another stack ASAP. There is no reason to fold, leave yourself with 15K, and try and find a better spot to double up before level 8 ends.

Edit: On second thought, it might be better to fold here, and then literally shove all-in preflop every hand. If you double-up to 30 or 35k, then that's as good as a rebuy. And if you bust, just go re-buy as planned. Even if you go all in with 27 and get called by AK, the 27 will still win like 40% of the time.

For what it's worth, everything above is about your decision after getting check/raised on the flop. I personally would have raised more pre-flop, and made a pot size bet (or, ultimately, go all-in) on the flop). To even consider folding after sticking 50% of your stack in isn't the best play in the long run.
Just my opinion.

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I’m right with you and appreciate your opinion.

First, the bet sizing is directly from the Jonathon Little handbook. Little defines a pre-flop raise, with limpers in the pot at 4BB with a 27-40BB stack, plus each additional limp. So, in this case, $4K + $1K + $1K + $1K, that’s where the pre-flop $7k comes from – it may seem arbitrary, but it’s not.

Now, Little also has a disclaimer about getting 30% of your starting stack in the pot, in which case he says you should simply shove. In other words, I can only bet $5K-$6K on the flop and still fold, so I should have just shoved if I was going to make any sort of legitimate C-bet.

As for the 50/50 thing, I guess I should clarify. Certainly if you add up the number of combo’s he can have after the C/R, my AK beats the minority. I guess I was speaking more in terms of psychological poker, there is no in between, he’s either got me crushed or I’m good – that’s what I meant by 50/50.

That said, I was pretty sure I was beat here – but knew there was a chance that I wasn’t. But this was the last hand of the rebuy period, the break started while I was in the hand. So I guess the question is; take a $15K stack into level 9 or look him up, just in case, and re-buy if necessary? I suppose I could have folded, rebought, and forfeited my original stack too; I guess that was an option as well. I don’t know I just wanted to see what everyone thought here; clearly not the best spot to be in.

Thanks for the post ssbn743. IMO it pays to be cautious with such aggressive players, especially in a live tourney when you get the chance to really feel them out. I wonder if you took the time to observe him after the flop and look for any tells, or when he checked, or when he bet. If you know he's been check raising with both the nuts and total air before, you may have been able to pick up on a tell. Aggressive players usually have one! In any case though, I would have either checked or min raised such a live flop, give myself the opportunity to feel him out before committing too much to the pot. Don't let those aggressive guys get to you!