Assessing Suckouts in tournament poker from a mental aspect

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quick

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Suckouts happen in every format of poker. But in tournaments they can be the brutal difference between a late stage double up to run ITM and a sudden end to your run with nothing to show for it.

This is more just me putting words down to assess my own processing of the insane suckouts we see. But as someone who also is studying clinical psychology, as I've grown and matured in the game, I've become more focused on the mental aspect of the game as well as the math.

I have some free time the next few weeks so i can play multiple tournaments online a day most days for the next month or so. Usually I only have time for some cash games.

Today for example alone I played about 6-7 small tournaments in varying degrees. Excluding the solid draws (more than 10 outs) I missed here's some of the gems I ran in to in just a short 7 hours session of various tournaments in no particular order. Nearly every one busted me out of the tournament or was the hand that crippled my stack and left me out the next hand:

AKs against 44 to a 3bet on my part. Flop TPTK, nothing good on board for villian, i raise, he shoves all in, i call: Turn is blank for both, River is a 4. I'm out.

KK all in late position/bout 10 bb left , slightly larger stack calls me all in pre and shows KJo. Flop is a beautiful rainbow giving him only a pair of Jacks. I'm ahead by a mile. Two spades on flop, one is his hand. Another spade on turn. And finally for fun another spade on river...runner runner flush draw when he was behind by a mile the whole time.

AKo all in preflop - villian calls with J3o. Gets a flop of 2 4 K rainbow. Turn is a 6, and hey for fun river is a 5 giving him a straight. And it wasn't a cheap call or low stack move, he went all in ahead of me.

Obviously these things happen. I flopped a lower full house all in to someone with a higher full house and got runner runner higher board full house to split the pot. We're always going to have times on the good side of suckouts and the bad side.

I was raging briefly because these plays by the villians were terrible. Even if they were desperate late stage tournament double up attempts they just sucked out over and over. It happens.

But like many players will say, take a step back. Did you play the hand correctly? Did you get the money in good? I felt that I did. AK is always a risk but when you flip and see they're horribly behind or you get to a flop or turn and get money in and they call from behind only to win on river, did you make the right move?

From a mental and mindfulness aspect, these suckouts are going to happen. Bad runs suck. Bad suckouts in tourneys are especially brutal. But I couldn't control what happened after the money was in.

As they say we want these players to keep making terrible plays. To keep calling with terrible hands that have very little outs to speak of. In the first example the guy had 2 outs on the river to win. On the third example, 2 outs. Both got rewarded for their gamble. We want that in poker. We want those bad calls, bad draws, and bad odds happening for the villians.

And once I committed to making a small but bankroll worthy deposit to play with instead of little amounts here and there, I've locked down my BRM and that makes the suckouts less of a problem. They still suck but they won't keep you out of the game if you keep a roll and play good poker.

End rant/thoughts on suckouts. Thank you.
 
FromHereOn

FromHereOn

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I hate to over-sell positive thinking, but if you push somebody all-in and they're way behind, you HAVE to pat yourself on the back right away and let the remaining cards be what they are.

If your only beats are suck-outs, keep playing because you're a winning poker player.

If you cash in a tournament after winning 2 or more from hands all-in behind, don't be surprised if that's your last cash until you fix your leaks.
 
quick

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Very well said.

Seeing the reason a hand lost is key. I'd rather, as much as it can drive you nuts initially, get money in good and lose to some brutal suckouts then fold my way out of a tournament because I'm too afraid of donkomatic suckouts.
 
Spieler

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yesterday I won 11$ ticket (with 0.3$ buyin). that was phase 2 sat for 150k GTD (200$ buyin). I was last in paid range when KK came. raised preflop and cheapleder reraised. I made allin as he was bullying all time. he called with KQ, it was a total domination. but... flop was 8 9 2 and turn and river 10, J.

I felt like hell, was so close to a good tournament.

But the only thing that made me calm was that I acted good. I should make allin against bully and I needed that double up (and pocket kings arent bad too).
 
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ratty_ge

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Nice thread, well thought out.
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SwiftHax

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Past few days I've played a lot of MTT's, because I'm focusing on mainly them. I don't know how many times I've got sucked out. KK vs AK AI preflop, river is an ace. Squeezing with KJ and got called by a KT, he flopped a T and turned trips. Also lost AQ vs KQ, AK vs AJ, QQ vs AQ, you name it. Hope this makes you feel better, it's really nasty getting sucked out like that late in tournies.

Edit: went out QQ vs AK, not a bad beat, but i can't seem to win even 50-50s.

Edit 2: lost JJ vs AQ vs AQ, it was a 3 club flop and one of the guys had an Ace of clubs in their hand and turned a club.
 
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veltins

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i love to see the Person calling me with bad Hands n win it vs me .. it feels good that there are many more fishes than me at least in the game..lol
 
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PoliticoV

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Very well written article. I completely agree that these suckouts are necessary for fishes to continue playing Poker. If not, all the thinking players will keep on battling each other, which is bad for all of us.

Good luck in your future games!
 
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subdylzep

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I used to be so very upset at suckouts, but then i noticed that if im taking suckouts then im ahead most of the time and im playing good poker, my frustration came because i would be playing out of my limits and get really good cashes and then lose a lot of my bankroll quickly on large buy ins or large cash games. But the fact was, I was in 90% of the time w the winning hand, and still am usually. If I keep myself getting in w the best hand, then eventually i have to win money right? NOPE WRONG! If you keep playing out of your limits you are gambling and the outcomes are going to be all over the place, you never know when you are going to go on that run of a lifetime or when you are going to lose a ton of money very quickly! You have to make sure you are keeping yourself on a strict DISCIPLINED % of buy ins on tournaments, and bankroll for cash play. It is all about that, once you have kept yourself disciplined in your buy ins then you will notice the suckouts are all the same, but your bankroll will continue to climb because you aren't gambling anymore, you are playing a set structure with a method that is going to prove profitable overtime because you are in with the best hands! This is the biggest problem for good players trying to make it in poker, DISCIPLINE! There are plenty of good players that get their hands in good but play such big buy ins and dont do it often enough to know that they are good enough to do it professionally. You have to keep yourself under control, once youve done that, then you'll notice just how good of a player you are! Furthermore, you'll notice that the bad beats dont bother you nearly as much as they used to because its not such a big amount of your bankroll, Its always around the same % or same buy in, and you win more than you lose, so its expected! You want those donkeys in there, you want those calls! They are the ones that make it profitable for us players that are good enough to do it for a living, but if you aren't being disciplined in your %s then you are just gambling as well! NOTE:Rounders... "I couldn't tell you how I got my bankroll to where it was, but i can tell you with every detail the way i lost it all" He was gambling in that movie and he realized it, He took a shot later, gambling again and won, but that isn't the takeaway here, Its that he took all that time being a great player and building his bankroll just to push it all away on one session. It's simply not worth it, You are better than that and you have to realize it and stop gambling and start playing with a set structure that makes you a winning player as well as a profitable one! Good luck in the future.
 
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CallmeFloppy

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I think it was Mike Caro that wrote just because you are the best poker player in the world, doesn't mean you will be the winningest player in the world. Like you and others said, take comfort in the fact that you played the hand correctly and that in the long run, you will come out ahead. If you manage to survive, nicely congratulate them on a nice catch and remember they will likely be giving those chips back soon.
 
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RandyMarsh

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Yea I feel ur luck will turn. You are getting it in way good. Variance will even out
 
Mason Pye

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In poker, suck-outs are quite common. If the best hand always holds, then poker wouldn't be as entertaining. The fact that a player can have 98% equity in a hand but could still lose to his opponents 2% equity by catching a one-outer is what makes our game so unpredictable. What you should take from this is that with all the hands you mentioned, you got your money in good. You can control when to put your money in, but you can't control the outcome of the cards that are dealt. Take comfort in the fact that in the long-run, these plays would be profitable. Hope this helps.
 
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jacksonionh

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Thank you, this helped me feel a bit better about brutal tournament suckouts
 
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