Any chance I can find a fold in the Main Event?

S

ssbn743

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 3, 2010
Total posts
543
Awards
1
Chips
0
Main Event Day 3

(Pavilion 243 Seat 3 and Amazon 148 Seat 8)

The day started out kind of weird. I drew a seat in the Pavilion room, and they had construction crews working taking down the “Kings Room” and all the lighting fixtures and whatnot. They were using a half dozen scissor lifts to reach the ceiling and each one of them had the safety “beeping” sound going on anytime they were moved.

I wasn’t real happy about the fact that we were playing a $10K buy-in and had to deal with all that distraction. In their defense, they obviously intended on breaking our table soon and within the first level, all tables in that room had been broken and sent to the Amazon room.

Hand #1
Level 11 ($1k/$2K/$300) (Stack $199,100, roughly 100BB's)

The first hand, I was Under the Gun, the player to my left had not yet arrived. The dealer dealt me :ac4: :10s4: and then realized that she didn’t deal the player in that wasn’t there yet and called a misdeal. Now, I wasn’t going to be opening an A10o from UTG on the first hand anyway, but it kind of had a bad omen feeling.

On the re-shuffle, I was dealt some trash hand I don’t even remember and folded.

However, the action folded to the small blind, who clearly turned out to be a very skilled player, probably the best player at the table. He completed the bet with a big $300K plus stack. The big blind raised to $5,500 with $160K stack and the small blind raised again to $21K. The big blind moved all-in with :ac4: :9c4: and was called by :ah4: :9d4: for the chop.

There were several things I’d like to note there. For one, even before we started dealing those two players were talking and I was able to ascertain that they had played Day 2 all day together. So, there was obviously lots of history. I was pretty amazed that both players got their stacks in with A9, but even more amazed that the 50% shorter stack, seemed more than willing to get it in with a suited A9 even though he had 80 big blinds and no real reason to go nuts.

Additionally, the small blind obviously saw it coming, as he intentionally limped specifically to get him to go nuts – why else do you limp raise? So, I immediately kind of groaned in my head as I was pretty sure the big blind was a bad player that wouldn’t mind getting it in.

Hand #2

The very next hand, the action folded to the small blind, Mr. A9 suited from the hand above. He opened the pot to $6,500.

The word: Weak flashed through my mind as he had just opened the last pot to $5,500.

I looked down and found :ks4: :kh4: - otherwise known as Yahtzee! I decided to 3-bet purely for value as I was next to certain he would make a mistake there. I sized my 3-bet at $15K, in hindsight, I easily could have gone to $20K, maybe even $25K. He called.

I knew his range was big, but also semi-solid, in other words, I really didn’t want to see an Ace hit the flop, but if an Ace were to hit, he may not love it either.

Pot - $32,700
Flop – :kc4: :8c4: :4c4:

He checked and I made an $11K C-bet. I watched his eyes key on that bet sizing, and I knew he thought that was peculiar as it was less than my pre-flop size – which I did 100% intentionally; it was still 1/3 pot, and I wanted him to think it was weakness.

He didn’t disappoint and very quickly, I’d almost go so far as to say he insta-raised to $44K, it just took him a few extra milli-seconds to grab that many chips.

$44K is an odd size, and seems like a “Go away – I know you’re weak, just fold” bet. There were so many things with his action, he did it very quickly which we all now is very reliable indicator of weakness, additionally the sizing was suspect…if he wanted value from a hand, why wouldn’t he have considered sizing before just gripping and ripping a bunch of chips.

Additionally, as I told myself, maybe he does want value, he could have K8, 88, 44, Ac X or just about anything else. He could have flopped a flush, yes, but I thought that was highly unlikely,118:1 unlikely, and he did raise pre-flop so I think it’d have to be a big flush if anything, he’s not raising 10c 3c.

I moved all-in and he snap called with :ac4: :3c4:.

Turn – :10c4:
River - :2h4:

I was crippled on the second hand of day 3 in the Main Event.

Any chance I can find a fold here? I mean, obviously I didn't, but should I have?
 
J

Jerry Kierl

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
May 25, 2017
Total posts
29
Chips
0
The first hand you said you were amazed that A9 suited got in the hand with 80BBs left. He showed that he likes suited cards. Raise to me indicates an Ace. I think I would have been leery of KKK with a flush board. Any 2 clubs beats you. I don't know about a fold, but I think the all in was in play pre flop. Without seeing him for more hands, I don't know if Ac3c was an all in hand for him.
 
J

Jerry Kierl

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
May 25, 2017
Total posts
29
Chips
0
And yes, I think a fold was an option on the reraise. That or a call to see the next card. Definitely a fold then. All in not my option with a flush board.
 
DougPkrMonsta

DougPkrMonsta

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 7, 2016
Total posts
914
Awards
15
Chips
0
If you don't share the results right away you will get less biased analysis... I'd three-bet more pre-flop as you said - the raise-size you chose gave him great odds to call, in position, and he took advantage and caught the perfect flop. I'd prefer a flat call to your raise size really.

With three kings on a monotone flop in a three-bet pot you are going to lose some chips to a flush.

Whether it had to be all of them is debatable, based on the one hand of history provided he might overvalue suited cards and your raise size kept all his suited hands in the pot.

If you just call his check-raise on the flop you keep his bluffs in the pot and disguise your hand should the board pair (at the risk of a 4th club coming up, but you are unlikely to be ahead on a 4th club anyway).

Was going to be a tough hand for you but I don't think I'd 3b so small preflop or re-raise all-in on the flop as you did.

Better luck next year! :D
 
S

ssbn743

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 3, 2010
Total posts
543
Awards
1
Chips
0
If you don't share the results right away you will get less biased analysis... I'd three-bet more pre-flop as you said - the raise-size you chose gave him great odds to call, in position, and he took advantage and caught the perfect flop. I'd prefer a flat call to your raise size really.

With three kings on a monotone flop in a three-bet pot you are going to lose some chips to a flush.

Whether it had to be all of them is debatable, based on the one hand of history provided he might overvalue suited cards and your raise size kept all his suited hands in the pot.

If you just call his check-raise on the flop you keep his bluffs in the pot and disguise your hand should the board pair (at the risk of a 4th club coming up, but you are unlikely to be ahead on a 4th club anyway).

Was going to be a tough hand for you but I don't think I'd 3b so small preflop or re-raise all-in on the flop as you did.

Better luck next year!

This is one of those hands that haunts you forever, especially given that it was in Day 3 of the Main Event with 100 Big Blinds. I do wish I had a time machine and could go back and make the 3-bet $25K, and/or check the flop – that said, is that results orientated?

What I mean is, I wanted him to make a mistake, and he did – if I raise to $25K, it’s likely he doesn’t make the mistake. Yes, I retain my chip stack, plus a few extra Big Blinds, but is that the most profitable play? I don’t think it is, even though it comes at the risk of losing 80BB’s, it’s not the way you win the Main Event.

Additionally, on the flop, there are dozens of combos he could be raising with I beat and only a few that beat me. Even with those combo’s that beat me, I have roughly 30% equity (7 on turn, 10 on river).

Building a range with Equilab:


KK+,88,44,AKs,KQs,K8s,K4s,84s,AcQc,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,
Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,KQo,K8o,K4o,84o,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,Ac8d,Ac8h,
Ac8s,Ac4d,Ac4h,Ac4s,KcJd,KcJh,KcJs

Gives me nearly 80% (78.43%) equity on the flop with my set of Kings against that range.

Since it’s the Main Event, we could NIT up his range a bit (although with a guy that just 4-bet shipped A9s, that’s being generous):

88, 44, AKs, KQs, K8s, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s, Ac4d, Ac4h, Ac4s

That’s still 66% equity for a set of Kings. Obviously, I know now, that I should have folded – but can I? Really?

I guess this is just more of a cooler story than anything else. A cooler on many levels, that previous A9s hand was definitely in the equation for my decision. I actually almost snap shipped, but paused and thought about it for nearly 90 seconds because it was the Main; and I still couldn’t find a way out. Bottom line, this one hurt.
 
Folding in Poker
Top