Am I being outplayed or...?

Over the past few days I've made an attempt to move up to the $12 STT Turbos on FTP. I've been beating the 6.5s.

I've played 56 games and am -26% ROI. I don't feel like I'm being outplayed but I'm losing. This is a very small sample I know.

What's the best way to tell if this is variance or I'm just being crushed. I don't run any tracking software. My br is healthy enough to continue but not at -26% roi.

Firstly, how big a sample size do you have for the $6.50s? Were you consistantly beating them over say 1000 games?

I don't have much experience at $10s myself but I believe there is quite a large jump in the amount of regs in those games compared to the $5s/$6s.

Your sample size is very small so far, but if you're thinking about your bankroll when playing I would move back down and rebuild. The last thing you want is it to negatively affect how you play.

I am bonus whoring using sngs at the moment. Over the last 3 sites I've played ~1,500 $1,20 and $3,30 sngs averaging ~10% ROI. I just moved to a new one and over 75ish games I'm -20%. The variance is huge and I know I'm not a -20% player. I'm properly rolled so the downswing isn't really bothering me. Who knows how long it will last.

I think the best thing you can do is drop down and get your confidence back, then hit the $10s hard again.

Good luck.

Yes I'm over 1000 games at 6.5 limit.

Usually 2 or 3 regs + me. But a lot of times it's that way at the lower limit too. There are still a lot of losers busting out early with hands like A10 and KJ and worse in the early stages of the $12 games.

I was thinking of giving it another 50 games but it feels like gambling right now, so I'm going to rebuild at the lower limit.

I was seeking some advice as to how to figure out if my game is weak or if it's just variance.

The only way we can tell without seeing your stats is for you to post a few hands where you feel it's likely you got outplayed, and another couple where you feel you just the variance so we can compare. It will still be just best guess, but it's better than nothing.

i'll work on that.

I don't mean to be rude and you say you have the bankroll to still play the $12.00 but it seems that you are playing somewhat scared money. What I mean is, with the $6.50's even at a point maybe when you knew you was crushing them still you must of had 50/100/200 maybe even more games where you was negative ROI%. For example when I've checked my stats, at the $1.10 I've played 56 games and was running at 50% ROI. Then I'd check a spot where at 250 games I was running below negative yet I'd check over a sample of 300 games and be in the positive ROI% with about $80 in winnings. If that makes sense. Basically you could just as easily play 300 games and run bad then play another session of 10 and run hot and all those loses you had previously will be wiped out with your hot spell.

I mean it is a very small smaple to really be worried. If you are playing good poker and don't feel you're being out played you might well just be running bad and within in the next 10 games win 5 on the trot to put you back in the postive. I've done that a few times, played 50 games in one day and was negative about $30.00 then the next day I only played 10 games and won 4 placed in 3 and was up like $60.00 so it all evens out.

My post probs sounds a little complicated as I made it difficult to read but hope you understand me lol.

Impossible to tell with so little data and such a small sample.

What I can tell you is there's definitely a skill jump between these two levels, much bigger than the one between any two lower levels, and while there are still terrible fish in these games there are a lot more solid players offsetting them. After close to 2000 games my ROI in the $12s isn't anywhere near as good as it was in the $6s and I'd like to think I've gotten better as a player, not worse.

You're ROI will naturally be lower, but you're $ per hour is going to be much higher.

Basically, if you are worried about a 54 game sample size, you're most likely not ready to move up.

?

Are you muli-tabling the sitngos? If so cut back for a while. Or maybe try them at another site and see how you do there.

WiZZiM said:

You're ROI will naturally be lower, but you're $ per hour is going to be much higher.

Basically, if you are worried about a 54 game sample size, you're most likely not ready to move up.

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I think you're right. I'm going to work the lower limits with a goal of reaching 250 $12 bi's b4 taking another shot.