All-In Call in Question
I decided to take a break from ring games last night and play a MTT. I was in 24 place of 27 when this situation occurred. I had long ago made the money and had 80k in chips. Chip leader had over 300k.
Blinds are 3k/6k with about a 600 ante. I've got J8s in middle position. Guy in EP limps. Now, before I go on, I should mention this guy had been limping and playing just about ANYTHING. In fact, had stats of 52/12 for the last 50-100 hands of the tournament and was making several questionable all in moves and calls. Anyway, action is on me and I raise to 30k with the only goal to steal the blinds and the limper. Everyone folds back to the limper who waits for a good long while and then shoves all in. He has me covered. So here's my thought process...
- i've got 50k left and the pot is 150k, so I'm getting 3:1 on a call
- I rule out TT+, AJ+, because based on his play he would have insta-shoved
- I'm putting him on Ax or maybe a low pocket pair, in which case I'm a coin flip or a little better than a 3:2 dog. Getting 3:1, calling should have +ev
- I'm shortstacked, and have been for awhile, and money doesn't payout doesn't increase again until 18th.
- if I call and win, I'll have 200k and have a good chance at the final table and big money.
- so I make the call
Now, did I just completely spaz out and make a horrible decision or is my logic to make the call ok? I should note that against ANY other opponent I lay down my hand to a limp re-raise, but I wa fairly confident I knew where I stood with this guy. I think my bigger issue with what I did would have been my 30k raise knowing the limper could call or do what he did, forcing me into this situation. I just don't play a ton of MTTs so I'd like to know if my thought process is flawed so I don't make future mistakes.
Thanks for any advice
p.s. Apologize if this should have been posted in hand analysis section, I meant for this to be a more general post than what it ended up being.