Aggro nits at micro stakes heads up

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Jordansimo

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Hi guys,

I'm running into a bit of hard luck at micro stakes against super nitty players who simply don't want to play, but not to the point where I'm getting a significant edge

For example, some guy joined me in a lobby and I saw a flop as the small blind about 18% and in the big blind about 11%, the rest were him just folding (or me folding to his giant 3-bets), which is great, but it wasn't enough to give me a significant lead in stacks from taking the BB's as he would come over my min-raises. Essentially we went into the higher blind levels at about even stacks where he just went shove or fold.

I lost with pocket jacks to KTo, which sucks but fine, he joined me again in the lobby a while later and did the exact same thing, played about 5 hands post flop and ended up getting it in with A5 against his A7 on a 5 high flop, but unfortunately he just made it on the river.

Is there no repercussions from playing like this? This guy is not the first one, there are plenty out there who are just stalling the game until the blinds go up
 
Katie Dozier

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Is there no repercussions from playing like this? This guy is not the first one, there are plenty out there who are just stalling the game until the blinds go up

Long term, it sounds like this opponent is most likely playing way too tight to be profitable in the early stages of HUSNGs. This probably means that his shove/fold game is also too tight which will further benefit you in the long run—so long as you continue to play correctly and take advantage of the very profitable potential adjustments to this type of opponent (generally widening your opening ranges to as wide as any two and tightening your calling ranges if you believe he is opening too tight).

Keep in mind that you benefit whenever your opponent plays incorrectly in the long run, especially in head’s up play. Best of luck to you :)
 
finaltable1

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Hi guys,

I'm running into a bit of hard luck at micro stakes against super nitty players who simply don't want to play, but not to the point where I'm getting a significant edge

For example, some guy joined me in a lobby and I saw a flop as the small blind about 18% and in the big blind about 11%, the rest were him just folding (or me folding to his giant 3-bets), which is great, but it wasn't enough to give me a significant lead in stacks from taking the BB's as he would come over my min-raises. Essentially we went into the higher blind levels at about even stacks where he just went shove or fold.

I lost with pocket jacks to KTo, which sucks but fine, he joined me again in the lobby a while later and did the exact same thing, played about 5 hands post flop and ended up getting it in with A5 against his A7 on a 5 high flop, but unfortunately he just made it on the river.

Is there no repercussions from playing like this? This guy is not the first one, there are plenty out there who are just stalling the game until the blinds go up



You will not get rid of this problem at micro limits, majority of your opponents will play this way at micros... Regs play aggressively because they want to win with a good hand or to bluff you out. Fish plays aggressively because of the same reasons. WHY? Because it's micro limits, It's CHEAP! Wins or losses are not hitting the wallet hard at micro limits

Since you're paying too much attention to these hands at micro limits then it tells me that these games have been important for you. In the reality you have to play tens or hundreds of HU games per day, so by the end of the day you will not remember how many times you've been victim or winner, what will matter by the end of the day is the number in your bankroll. You need massive number of games per day/ per month/ per year with a nice strategy to be a winning HU player, or you will never beat the rake.

I've answered about the strategy in your other post:

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tou...n-against-huge-bets-heads-437629/#post5320037

Will say it again - Simply switch to hyper-turbo HU games with 25bb starting stack and play push/fold pre-flop poker. It's the best what you can do at micro limits. You need a good push range and a long distance per session, 40+ HU matches per day is good, better to play 4+ at the same time. This way importance of each win or loss will be reduced and you'll not be falling in tilt when bad beats will happen, but it depends on traffic at your poker site.

P.S. YOu also need to set "stop limits" per session. For example, if after 40 matches you're up 5+ buy-ins then it's a good reason to end session with profit. And you also need to set a loss limit. It's difficult to say what's best today, cause rakeback differs at all poker sites from what it was years ago when i was playing HU games, you need to think what's best for you according to your bankroll management and set your personal stop limits.
 
pentazepam

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I agree with Katie Dozier that this type of players play way too tight early and that is easy to exploit by stealing more and calling off tighter.

But there is some players from mainly Russia and Eastern Europe that probably play by some all-in charts in a very mechanical way. They often multi-table also.

What makes them special is that they seems to try to avoid playing post flop poker almost totally (probably since they can not use a chart to what at least not as easily). And since most post flop situations normally comes when blinds are deeper they fold a lot in the beginning.

Once it comes down to 15-20bb or less (sometimes earlier) they seems to be very aggressive and sometimes play mathematically correct after a Nash chart.

It can seem like a lottery but if you have a little lead then the all-in game begins you still are a favorite to win of course. This little edges gives you money in the long run but it can be dangerous to over-fold yourself if you have no proof that they are to tight even when short. You have to play more or less after Nash yourself if they do it.

So let the take the early lead and then start the all-in lottery with an edge.

You can find them in spin and go's also. No calling and almost no mini-raises. Just fold or all-in but in them and HU hyper-sng it is at least if not optimal play so pretty close to go by an all-in or fold chart.
 
zinzir

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Calling your tight aggressive opponents "aggro nits" doesn't make them less dangerous or easier to play against. Tight aggressive play deserves respect, and in my humble opinion calls for the same type of counter action, tighten your own ranges and raise aggressively your own good hands. If you loosen your own calling range you effectively give him more of an advantage. The two examples you gave show that you played well and received a bad beat in first case losing with JJ against K10, and were unlucky in the second case with A5 vs A7, those two examples do not call in my opinion for a change in the way you played against those opponents.
 
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zinzir

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You will not get rid of this problem at micro limits, majority of your opponents will play this way at micros... Regs play aggressively because they want to win with a good hand or to bluff you out. Fish plays aggressively because of the same reasons. WHY? Because it's micro limits, It's CHEAP! Wins or losses are not hitting the wallet hard at micro limits

Since you're paying too much attention to these hands at micro limits then it tells me that these games have been important for you. In the reality you have to play tens or hundreds of HU games per day, so by the end of the day you will not remember how many times you've been victim or winner, what will matter by the end of the day is the number in your bankroll. You need massive number of games per day/ per month/ per year with a nice strategy to be a winning HU player, or you will never beat the rake.

I've answered about the strategy in your other post:

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tou...n-against-huge-bets-heads-437629/#post5320037

Will say it again - Simply switch to hyper-turbo HU games with 25bb starting stack and play push/fold pre-flop poker. It's the best what you can do at micro limits. You need a good push range and a long distance per session, 40+ HU matches per day is good, better to play 4+ at the same time. This way importance of each win or loss will be reduced and you'll not be falling in tilt when bad beats will happen, but it depends on traffic at your poker site.

P.S. YOu also need to set "stop limits" per session. For example, if after 40 matches you're up 5+ buy-ins then it's a good reason to end session with profit. And you also need to set a loss limit. It's difficult to say what's best today, cause rakeback differs at all poker sites from what it was years ago when i was playing HU games, you need to think what's best for you according to your bankroll management and set your personal stop limits.


Can you please explain what you mean by "You need massive number of games per day/ per month/ per year with a nice strategy to be a winning HU player, or you will never beat the rake. "? Since rake is a percentage, how can you beat it by playing more hands?
 
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I agree with Katie Dozier that this type of players play way too tight early and that is easy to exploit by stealing more and calling off tighter.

But there is some players from mainly Russia and Eastern Europe that probably play by some all-in charts in a very mechanical way. They often multi-table also.

What makes them special is that they seems to try to avoid playing post flop poker almost totally (probably since they can not use a chart to what at least not as easily). And since most post flop situations normally comes when blinds are deeper they fold a lot in the beginning.

Once it comes down to 15-20bb or less (sometimes earlier) they seems to be very aggressive and sometimes play mathematically correct after a Nash chart.

It can seem like a lottery but if you have a little lead then the all-in game begins you still are a favorite to win of course. This little edges gives you money in the long run but it can be dangerous to over-fold yourself if you have no proof that they are to tight even when short. You have to play more or less after Nash yourself if they do it.

So let the take the early lead and then start the all-in lottery with an edge.

You can find them in Spin and Go's also. No calling and almost no mini-raises. Just fold or all-in but in them and HU hyper-sng it is at least if not optimal play so pretty close to go by an all-in or fold chart.

I cant help thinking, that the easiest thing in the world to teach a computer program (bot) is short stacked push-fold poker. Not accusing anyone without evidence, but its just something to keep in mind ;)
 
Luvepoker

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Super nits are easy to beat but I understand what you mean. If there start raising and you have a premium hand like jacks just push it in there. Loosing against KT sucks for sure but 70% of the time you are the winner there. As for delaying the game, I hate that. It ruins the game for sure but if they are that bad of a player they need the blind to be that high to play poker there is not much you can do about that.
 
finaltable1

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Can you please explain what you mean by "You need massive number of games per day/ per month/ per year with a nice strategy to be a winning HU player, or you will never beat the rake. "? Since rake is a percentage, how can you beat it by playing more hands?

Sorry for the long explanation, if you're experienced player you can read the top part of it and skip the rest.

ROI = Return Of Investment
Rake = let's say it's usually 10% (5% + 5% for HU SNG games)
"Beating the rake" means having ROI above +10%.

Let's say you've played 100 HU games at $1 limit, won 54, lost 46.
Total invested = $200, Rake= 10%=$20, Prize money = $180
Prize money per 1 game = $1.8
Won 54, so 54 * 1.8 = $97.2

So
You've invested $100, played 100 games and you've won 54 of them, does it makes you a winning player?

Nope.

Your ROI is -2.8%

Having ROI above 10% means that you're beating the rake..

OFC YOU can be a winning player by playing 1500 games per day with ROI just above 1%, it will also give you some profit, but at some point you will realise that you might adjust your open/push/fold ranges for different positions and different opponents in order to increase the ROI.

To understand better where you currently are, it's great to use HUD. Stats stored in history will show your problems and weak spots, so you can adjust your strategy. In case if your pokersite is not allowing HUDs, you can still manually collect data or hire a freelance programmer who will help you out(for a small reward) in exporting your poker hands history to excel or SQL database where you can sort things out and find out where you're having a problem.

Quite often playing online poker we have long losing or winning streaks, so it's good to set a stop limit for up and down and ofc you have to play massive amount of HU games in order to see how good your strategy is. Cause luck factor in this case is negated by number of games, after after 10K games luck factor is nothing but a statistical error, after 100K games luck factor can be considered as zero. But if you've played 30 games per month and consider yourself as a poker pro because you've won 25 of them or you feel like poker site is rigged cause you've lost 25 out of 30, then you're seeing things wrong.

I hope this explains well how you can beat the rake at the micro limits. From my side, I can recommend hyper-turbo HU at micros as the best choice. It's games with 25BB starting stack and with 2 or 3 minute blind levels, 2 minute blinds are better. Majority of your opponents at such micro limit games will not understand what happened 2 minutes ago and what's going on at this current moment, and what they will have to do 2 minutes later...

P.S. If you're curious - "Beating the rake" is the term used by many players in my area for a long time, I think that first time I've herd it in the poker club, was about 7-8 years ago. And it's not English term, I've translated it, don't know if it's widely used, but it sounds logical, cause any winning player beats the rake in the long run.
 
finaltable1

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I agree with Katie Dozier that this type of players play way too tight early and that is easy to exploit by stealing more and calling off tighter.

But there is some players from mainly Russia and Eastern Europe that probably play by some all-in charts in a very mechanical way. They often multi-table also.

What makes them special is that they seems to try to avoid playing post flop poker almost totally (probably since they can not use a chart to what at least not as easily). And since most post flop situations normally comes when blinds are deeper they fold a lot in the beginning.

Once it comes down to 15-20bb or less (sometimes earlier) they seems to be very aggressive and sometimes play mathematically correct after a Nash chart.

It can seem like a lottery but if you have a little lead then the all-in game begins you still are a favorite to win of course. This little edges gives you money in the long run but it can be dangerous to over-fold yourself if you have no proof that they are to tight even when short. You have to play more or less after Nash yourself if they do it.

So let the take the early lead and then start the all-in lottery with an edge.

You can find them in Spin and Go's also. No calling and almost no mini-raises. Just fold or all-in but in them and HU hyper-sng it is at least if not optimal play so pretty close to go by an all-in or fold chart.

Your mistake is obvious.


And Yes, You're correct about some things. Poker becomes more and more popular in Russia and post-Soviet countries, they even have their own poker rooms and they had, still have and getting new poker training sites every year, where mathematical part of the game is explained very well, together with psychological and all other points of views. Also since education at all levels is free or almost free in these countries, it's no wonder that they have top scientists/programmers/hackers and their students win gold medals at maths/physics/programming world championships each year.

LOL if we'll compare average Russian player to average Brasilian player, for example... Majority of Russians don't have Atlantic ocean with beaches nearby and Samba Carnivals, during cold winters they prefer to solve puzzles, and play intellectual table games at home. Another example -If we'll compare average German player to average American, we'll see that in a $2 MTT German player will fold JKs to a 50% stack all-in, just because it's a JK, while American player will always call, just because it's just 2dollars. Don't call me any kind of poker racist, I'm playing approx 10 different poker sites for really long time and see these cultural differences in the game... that's why some poker sites like party and acr are upgrading to hiding the location and flag info, and even allow to change the nicknames now.

Together with said above, I must mention that my native language is Russian and I live in ex Soviet Republic, but I also know several more languages and after browsing different poker communities in several different languages I must say that poker schools are completely different in many countries. Even British - American poker is different, however they're both in the English poker "zone"... Obvious example is "10 premium hands chart" listed here at CardsChat, Russians think different, they would have a good laugh by looking at these "Premiums" here.

What you've described is correct, and your mistake is obvious and simple. Stealing-shmealing, 10-20-30 BBs = simply forget about such BS in HU or 3-way games :)) Specially if it's a short stacked game with fast blinds that can be launched several times per minute... If it's $10 buy-in game, then think about your stack as a single $10 bet, instead of thinking about it as a 10-20-30BB chip stack. You're showing to Russian reg. player your weaknesses during first blind levels. His position is always strong, it's like he's saying "Ok, I got the cards, I bet $10, let's see who will win", while you're trying to say "maybe I have a hand, let's see a flop, then I'll decide if it's worth to bluff or to bet\call with good outs and so on". So basically you're saying "I'm not sure, I want to be sure when I'll see the flop, maybe I'll bet $1.5 instead of betting whole $10"... You know what? You're losing respect points in your opponents eyes when you're doing this. Russian regulars know perfectly that any two cards can win, but some cards win more often. They also know that online poker is a rake generating system, it's not a real life poker, where tells, reads, and deep thinking have value. In online poker, specially in HU SNGs value comes from the number of games, all they have to do is to pick "the dealer" side and play against gamblers, it's like you're playing against roulette, and you have 18 red numbers on your side, while he has 18 blacks plus one green, in the long run he will always win, all he has to do is to keep playing against such "gamblers" who split their $10 bet into 30bb stack and play HU SNG poker like if it's the final table of 5 day wsop tourney, "as seen on TV" LOL.

Nash, GTO or ABC... it's all true and it's all lie at the same time, Russian poker sites are teaching them to switch gears against same opponents...

P.S. Braslian poker school, together with poker media in brasil are drawing same picture for all types of games, you will find that average brasilian player is playing MTT for several hours the same way like if it's a Hyper-Turbo short stacked HU SNG... A7 = Preflop ALL-IN, Because it's Ace, and doesn't matter if there was a 3bet infront of him from a very tight player, he simply accepts the fact of maximum loss of his buy-in in this current hand and does not cares about time spent, ICM and other factors, he's providing you with 2 simple choices = call or fold. That's what the rest of the world doesn't really like about Brasilian players, cause sometimes they beat your pocket kings with trash like A8os, and our brain will keep such bad beats for much longer time, than normal vice-versa wins, when your best pre-flop hands beats opponents garbage.

Regs and Pros have no nationality, players of the top level almost equally understand the game, What I've said above was about average players... You might be surprised that premium hands in China include 78s, not only because 8 is the lucky number, but also because it's middle of the range, and such cards have good post-flop value for straigh-flush-set-2pairs together with being less predictable for traditional western poker players...
 
zinzir

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Sorry for the long explanation, if you're experienced player you can read the top part of it and skip the rest.

ROI = Return Of Investment
Rake = let's say it's usually 10% (5% + 5% for HU SNG games)
"Beating the rake" means having ROI above +10%.

Let's say you've played 100 HU games at $1 limit, won 54, lost 46.
Total invested = $200, Rake= 10%=$20, Prize money = $180
Prize money per 1 game = $1.8
Won 54, so 54 * 1.8 = $97.2

So
You've invested $100, played 100 games and you've won 54 of them, does it makes you a winning player?

Nope.

Your ROI is -2.8%

Having ROI above 10% means that you're beating the rake..

OFC YOU can be a winning player by playing 1500 games per day with ROI just above 1%, it will also give you some profit, but at some point you will realise that you might adjust your open/push/fold ranges for different positions and different opponents in order to increase the ROI.

To understand better where you currently are, it's great to use HUD. Stats stored in history will show your problems and weak spots, so you can adjust your strategy. In case if your pokersite is not allowing HUDs, you can still manually collect data or hire a freelance programmer who will help you out(for a small reward) in exporting your poker hands history to excel or SQL database where you can sort things out and find out where you're having a problem.

Quite often playing online poker we have long losing or winning streaks, so it's good to set a stop limit for up and down and ofc you have to play massive amount of HU games in order to see how good your strategy is. Cause luck factor in this case is negated by number of games, after after 10K games luck factor is nothing but a statistical error, after 100K games luck factor can be considered as zero. But if you've played 30 games per month and consider yourself as a poker pro because you've won 25 of them or you feel like poker site is rigged cause you've lost 25 out of 30, then you're seeing things wrong.

I hope this explains well how you can beat the rake at the micro limits. From my side, I can recommend hyper-turbo HU at micros as the best choice. It's games with 25BB starting stack and with 2 or 3 minute blind levels, 2 minute blinds are better. Majority of your opponents at such micro limit games will not understand what happened 2 minutes ago and what's going on at this current moment, and what they will have to do 2 minutes later...

P.S. If you're curious - "Beating the rake" is the term used by many players in my area for a long time, I think that first time I've herd it in the poker club, was about 7-8 years ago. And it's not English term, I've translated it, don't know if it's widely used, but it sounds logical, cause any winning player beats the rake in the long run.
Thank you for the explanation. While I agree with what you said in the first part about the rake, I still don't see how playing more games using the same strategy would give you an advantage. If you lose $2.8 playing 100 games wining 54 of them, then you will lose $28 playing 1000 games wining 540 of them, using the same strategy. Now if you use a better strategy you can win 60 out of 100, and then you are profitable just playing the initial 100 games, you don't need to play more games to turn a profit. I understand the term "beating the rake", but in order to achieve that you need to play better, not more. Playing more games of course will increase your experience level and in time help you win more games, nobody can argue about that, but I was simply pointing out that rake is a percentage, around 10% like you mentioned, and it will stay at 10% regardless if you play 1 game or 1 million games, it's simple mathematics.
 
zinzir

zinzir

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Your mistake is obvious.


And Yes, You're correct about some things. Poker becomes more and more popular in Russia and post-Soviet countries, they even have their own poker rooms and they had, still have and getting new poker training sites every year, where mathematical part of the game is explained very well, together with psychological and all other points of views. Also since education at all levels is free or almost free in these countries, it's no wonder that they have top scientists/programmers/hackers and their students win gold medals at maths/physics/programming world championships each year.

LOL if we'll compare average Russian player to average Brasilian player, for example... Majority of Russians don't have Atlantic ocean with beaches nearby and Samba Carnivals, during cold winters they prefer to solve puzzles, and play intellectual table games at home. Another example -If we'll compare average German player to average American, we'll see that in a $2 MTT German player will fold JKs to a 50% stack all-in, just because it's a JK, while American player will always call, just because it's just 2dollars. Don't call me any kind of poker racist, I'm playing approx 10 different poker sites for really long time and see these cultural differences in the game... that's why some poker sites like party and acr are upgrading to hiding the location and flag info, and even allow to change the nicknames now.

Together with said above, I must mention that my native language is Russian and I live in ex Soviet Republic, but I also know several more languages and after browsing different poker communities in several different languages I must say that poker schools are completely different in many countries. Even British - American poker is different, however they're both in the English poker "zone"... Obvious example is "10 premium hands chart" listed here at CardsChat, Russians think different, they would have a good laugh by looking at these "Premiums" here.

What you've described is correct, and your mistake is obvious and simple. Stealing-shmealing, 10-20-30 BBs = simply forget about such BS in HU or 3-way games :)) Specially if it's a short stacked game with fast blinds that can be launched several times per minute... If it's $10 buy-in game, then think about your stack as a single $10 bet, instead of thinking about it as a 10-20-30BB chip stack. You're showing to Russian reg. player your weaknesses during first blind levels. His position is always strong, it's like he's saying "Ok, I got the cards, I bet $10, let's see who will win", while you're trying to say "maybe I have a hand, let's see a flop, then I'll decide if it's worth to bluff or to bet\call with good outs and so on". So basically you're saying "I'm not sure, I want to be sure when I'll see the flop, maybe I'll bet $1.5 instead of betting whole $10"... You know what? You're losing respect points in your opponents eyes when you're doing this. Russian regulars know perfectly that any two cards can win, but some cards win more often. They also know that online poker is a rake generating system, it's not a real life poker, where tells, reads, and deep thinking have value. In online poker, specially in HU SNGs value comes from the number of games, all they have to do is to pick "the dealer" side and play against gamblers, it's like you're playing against roulette, and you have 18 red numbers on your side, while he has 18 blacks plus one green, in the long run he will always win, all he has to do is to keep playing against such "gamblers" who split their $10 bet into 30bb stack and play HU SNG poker like if it's the final table of 5 day WSOP tourney, "as seen on TV" LOL.

Nash, GTO or ABC... it's all true and it's all lie at the same time, Russian poker sites are teaching them to switch gears against same opponents...

P.S. Braslian poker school, together with poker media in Brasil are drawing same picture for all types of games, you will find that average brasilian player is playing MTT for several hours the same way like if it's a Hyper-Turbo short stacked HU SNG... A7 = Preflop ALL-IN, Because it's Ace, and doesn't matter if there was a 3bet infront of him from a very tight player, he simply accepts the fact of maximum loss of his buy-in in this current hand and does not cares about time spent, ICM and other factors, he's providing you with 2 simple choices = call or fold. That's what the rest of the world doesn't really like about Brasilian players, cause somwetimes they beat your pocket kings with trash like A8os, and our brain will keep such bad beats for much longer time, than normal vice-versa wins, when your best pre-flop hands beats opponents garbage.

Regs and Pros have no nationality, players of the top level almost equally understand the game, What I've said above was about average players... You might be surprised that premium hands in China include 78s, not only because 8 is the lucky number, but also because it's middle of the range, and such cards have good post-flop value for straigh-flush-set-2pairs together with being less predictable for traditional western poker players...
I liked your post because of your nice description of the advantages of "strong" HU strategy of loosely going all in. I agree with you to a certain extent, meaning I see how it could give you an edge over an opponent who does not adapt and persist using a passive approach, but most of the time in my opinion such an approach forces your opponent into an all-in randomness which besides not being real poker anymore is also a losing strategy in the long run because of the rake. However, going all in with A7 after a raise and a re-raise in an MTT is simply a maniacal strategy, a losing one. And saying that it's online, it's fast, you lose this one and move to the next one is even worse when using a losing strategy, because in that case playing more games leads to losing more money.
 
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Hello! In order to determine the average ROI, it is necessary to play a fairly long distance. For short periods of time, variance can significantly affect the result, especially when it comes to the hyper-turbo speed.
 
finaltable1

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Thank you for the explanation. While I agree with what you said in the first part about the rake, I still don't see how playing more games using the same strategy would give you an advantage. If you lose $2.8 playing 100 games wining 54 of them, then you will lose $28 playing 1000 games wining 540 of them, using the same strategy. Now if you use a better strategy you can win 60 out of 100, and then you are profitable just playing the initial 100 games, you don't need to play more games to turn a profit. I understand the term "beating the rake", but in order to achieve that you need to play better, not more. Playing more games of course will increase your experience level and in time help you win more games, nobody can argue about that, but I was simply pointing out that rake is a percentage, around 10% like you mentioned, and it will stay at 10% regardless if you play 1 game or 1 million games, it's simple mathematics.

Yes, you're right, it's simple mathematics. And you're wrong at the same time. It's some sort of "rule of the long run". Let's say we flip a coin 10 times, you're expecting that it will be equal??? 5 / 5 for both sides? Nope, it won't be fair. I will say that 70% of times result will be 7 / 3. For 100 coin flips dispersion will also be quite unfair. But for 1000 flips or even 10K flips it will be very close to 50/50 if conditions are fair.

This is the problem that roulette players have when they're playing black and white and trying to double the stake after each loss. Roulette has zero and maximum bet is usually capped, so fair mathematics won't work, roulette owner will always win, cause large number of players is giving him that necessary big number of "flips" or better to say "long run"

I'll find an article in wiki about this for you...

Here it is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

As you can read below, black has fallen 26 times in a row once... I believe that back there in that moment of time black has fallen maybe 80 out of 100.

Same with poker. If your strategy works during 10 or 100 games it doesn't mean anything yet, and vice-versa, you might be having a long winning or losing streak. Luck is negated by a large number of games played and you can see better results of your strategy in the long run.
 
finaltable1

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I liked your post because of your nice description of the advantages of "strong" HU strategy of loosely going all in. I agree with you to a certain extent, meaning I see how it could give you an edge over an opponent who does not adapt and persist using a passive approach, but most of the time in my opinion such an approach forces your opponent into an all-in randomness which besides not being real poker anymore is also a losing strategy in the long run because of the rake. However, going all in with A7 after a raise and a re-raise in an MTT is simply a maniacal strategy, a losing one. And saying that it's online, it's fast, you lose this one and move to the next one is even worse when using a losing strategy, because in that case playing more games leads to losing more money.

Maybe yes and maybe not. Calculations provided to you by poker calculators and as you see them on TV and in the streams are also both correct and incorrect.

Why?

There are different mathematical systems.

1) In one of the systems you're calculating your odds, knowing your cards and how much cards left in the deck.. during the streams at twictch/youtube/TV they're calculating odds for you in %, knowing cards of all players. SO both opponents at the table, AK against AQ are including 3 remaining Aces in the deck as cards that might help them, while viewers who see the cards of both opponents are seeing a different picture of odds. So the maths is different, right? (trying to make it easier to understand) However this is the same mathematical system. What about the different one?

2) The other mathematical system includes much less data, and it's dominating the first one. Why? cause in the first one you're including too many factors, like number of players(cards dealt) number of remaining cards in the deck and so on. In the dominating mathematical system you're having 2 cards in your equasion. Just 2 cards. You don't know what these cards are, you just know that you have 2 cards and you're against opponents who also have 2 cards. You're not thinking about these 2 cards, like if they're aces, deuces, sevens. THis is the key moment. It's just 2 random cards. Like you're playing blind in live game or you have a piece of paper glued at your screen on top of the cards in online poker...

What will be mathematical part in such case? Let's say you see a bet and 3bet infront of you preflop, and you're pushing all-in with 2 cards, and you have no idea what cards you've got. What is the maths in that moment of time? Ok, After the deal is over, we have 100% confidence of who won and who lost, It might still be unclear on the flop-turn-river, but before the deal has started it's 50/50 for win or loss if we'll see the river, it's also 50/50 that opponents will fold pre-flop. It's like when you're entering the real casino, when you'll leave it several hours later you've got 2 options: 1) you will leave it as a winner or 2) as a loser, but when you're entering the casino, without paying attention that slots are fixed, roulette is against you, blackjack is a pure loss if you're not counting and poker has rake... these factors increase your chances to lose, but when you're starting it it's purely 50/50 that you'll either end it up as a winner or as a loser.

Like I've mentioned in the above post about Gamblers Fallacy. In poker MTT you might reach the final table by just flipping the coin with any two cards. If you'll double your stack like 6-8-10 times during several hours(depending on the field) you will find out that your stack is average for the final table.

So, some players are accepting a simple mathematical part instead of going deeper. Even IF 2 players will go all-in pre, and one of them holding A7os, the other one has KK or AK, the person with A7 still has outs and over 10% chance to win on the river when they see each pthers cards before the flop...

Such maths have right to live, and it's not wrong, it's even dominating any other mathematical systems, cause all of them include factors that players don't really know before the showdown. Since any holdem poker hand is 5 cards, and you're dealt just 2 cards, you may widely use such maths against tight players in the MTTs. They're smart and tight and good at postflop and they know well about ICM and other factors, it gives them additional reasons to fold their pocket nines-jacks against your all-in. Other players have got money pressure problems, they don't really want to risk the time spent and so on... You can ignore everything and just keep it simple.

From such point of view, when you know, that you're flipping with A7os it's much better than a blind all-in and you'll see that you've been flipping with 27os, isn't it?
 
zinzir

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Maybe yes and maybe not. Calculations provided to you by poker calculators and as you see them on TV and in the streams are also both correct and incorrect.

Why?

There are different mathematical systems.

1) In one of the systems you're calculating your odds, knowing your cards and how much cards left in the deck.. during the streams at twictch/youtube/TV they're calculating odds for you in %, knowing cards of all players. SO both opponents at the table, AK against AQ are including 3 remaining Aces in the deck as cards that might help them, while viewers who see the cards of both opponents are seeing a different picture of odds. So the maths is different, right? (trying to make it easier to understand) However this is the same mathematical system. What about the different one?

2) The other mathematical system includes much less data, and it's dominating the first one. Why? cause in the first one you're including too many factors, like number of players(cards dealt) number of remaining cards in the deck and so on. In the dominating mathematical system you're having 2 cards in your equasion. Just 2 cards. You don't know what these cards are, you just know that you have 2 cards and you're against opponents who also have 2 cards. You're not thinking about these 2 cards, like if they're aces, deuces, sevens. THis is the key moment. It's just 2 random cards. Like you're playing blind in live game or you have a piece of paper glued at your screen on top of the cards in online poker...

What will be mathematical part in such case? Let's say you see a bet and 3bet infront of you preflop, and you're pushing all-in with 2 cards, and you have no idea what cards you've got. What is the maths in that moment of time? Ok, After the deal is over, we have 100% confidence of who won and who lost, It might still be unclear on the flop-turn-river, but before the deal has started it's 50/50 for win or loss if we'll see the river, it's also 50/50 that opponents will fold pre-flop. It's like when you're entering the real casino, when you'll leave it several hours later you've got 2 options: 1) you will leave it as a winner or 2) as a loser, but when you're entering the casino, without paying attention that slots are fixed, roulette is against you, blackjack is a pure loss if you're not counting and poker has rake... these factors increase your chances to lose, but when you're starting it it's purely 50/50 that you'll either end it up as a winner or as a loser.

Like I've mentioned in the above post about Gamblers Fallacy. In poker MTT you might reach the final table by just flipping the coin with any two cards. If you'll double your stack like 6-8-10 times during several hours(depending on the field) you will find out that your stack is average for the final table.

So, some players are accepting a simple mathematical part instead of going deeper. Even IF 2 players will go all-in pre, and one of them holding A7os, the other one has KK or AK, the person with A7 still has outs and over 10% chance to win on the river when they see each pthers cards before the flop...

Such maths have right to live, and it's not wrong, it's even dominating any other mathematical systems, cause all of them include factors that players don't really know before the showdown. Since any holdem poker hand is 5 cards, and you're dealt just 2 cards, you may widely use such maths against tight players in the MTTs. They're smart and tight and good at postflop and they know well about ICM and other factors, it gives them additional reasons to fold their pocket nines-jacks against your all-in. Other players have got money pressure problems, they don't really want to risk the time spent and so on... You can ignore everything and just keep it simple.

From such point of view, when you know, that you're flipping with A7os it's much better than a blind all-in and you'll see that you've been flipping with 27os, isn't it?

According to your second system (I have a hard time picturing it as mathematical) what you are actually doing is select for better hands than yours to go against pre-flop, and already rewarding the better hands by paying raises and re-raises. The problem with the worst hand is that even if it improves post flop it has a decent probability to still be an underdog to the superior hands it started the race against, and you lose even more chips. Poker players sometimes call small raises with connected small cards preferably suited or small pairs hoping to flop a monster and double up against a better starting hand, and good MTT players may adopt a small ball strategy like Daniel Negreanu, calling small raises with worse hands and relying post flop on good reading abilities and a variety of confusing "moves" to steer the chips in their direction, but that's a whole lot different than saying any two cards can win, I have A7 os, I know I am dominated by at least two other opponents, but let's go, I can still win 10% of the time. That is not even overly aggressive, it is reckless. Overly aggressive would be to raise from early position with A7 os (still a mistake), not call raises and re-raises with the same hand.
 
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zinzir

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Yes, you're right, it's simple mathematics. And you're wrong at the same time. It's some sort of "rule of the long run". Let's say we flip a coin 10 times, you're expecting that it will be equal??? 5 / 5 for both sides? Nope, it won't be fair. I will say that 70% of times result will be 7 / 3. For 100 coin flips dispersion will also be quite unfair. But for 1000 flips or even 10K flips it will be very close to 50/50 if conditions are fair.

This is the problem that roulette players have when they're playing black and white and trying to double the stake after each loss. Roulette has zero and maximum bet is usually capped, so fair mathematics won't work, roulette owner will always win, cause large number of players is giving him that necessary big number of "flips" or better to say "long run"

I'll find an article in wiki about this for you...

Here it is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

As you can read below, black has fallen 26 times in a row once... I believe that back there in that moment of time black has fallen maybe 80 out of 100.

Same with poker. If your strategy works during 10 or 100 games it doesn't mean anything yet, and vice-versa, you might be having a long winning or losing streak. Luck is negated by a large number of games played and you can see better results of your strategy in the long run.


Your example is with the coin flip is excellent, but it helps my point and not yours. If you have a losing strategy, the more hands you play the more money you are going to lose, because chance/luck is going to be less and less important. So you got to have a winning strategy first, and then play as many hands and possible and not the other way around. Also, poker is way more complex than flipping a coin, and probabilities are extremely complicated, almost impossible to calculate for whole poker games. Statistics are calculated for an individual situation, very specific, like having a small pair and looking for a set, having a straight or flush draw etc, and you need a number of extractions in the millions, not hundreds of thousands, in order to completely negate luck. In other words, you need extractions in the order of millions to get exactly 50% in the coin toss example, or millions of open ended straight draws to get to exactly 31.5% probability of hitting the straight on the turn or river, in order to make your pot odds exact. Not millions of poker games played by an individual player, millions of repetitions of that particular situation for that particular player assuming he plays it exactly the same way. And you need millions of repetitions for virtually every single card situation in poker that you play in an identical way in order to negate the luck factor. So saying that playing a hundred thousand HU games takes luck out of the equation is a huge understatement, more likely you need trillions of games with every single repetition of the same situation played exactly the same in order to completely negate luck. And all that does is taking the luck out and it guarantees that a winning strategy will make money and a losing strategy will lose money, in other words a winning strategy is always a must. Of course, humans don't live long enough to play trillions of poker games, and it's virtually impossible for humans to play every single situation in an identical way millions of times, but a artificial intelligence could and at the end of the trillions of games played using a winning strategy would be guaranteed to be hugely profitable despite a 10% rake.
 
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finaltable1

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Your example is with the coin flip is excellent, but it helps my point and not yours. If you have a losing strategy, the more hands you play the more money you are going to lose, because chance/luck is going to be less and less important. So you got to have a winning strategy first, and then play as many hands and possible and not the other way around. Also, poker is way more complex than flipping a coin, and probabilities are extremely complicated, almost impossible to calculate for whole poker games. Statistics are calculated for an individual situation, very specific, like having a small pair and looking for a set, having a straight or flush draw etc, and you need a number of extractions in the millions, not hundreds of thousands, in order to completely negate luck. In other words, you need extractions in the order of millions to get exactly 50% in the coin toss example, or millions of open ended straight draws to get to exactly 31.5% probability of hitting the straight on the turn or river, in order to make your pot odds exact. Not millions of poker games played by an individual player, millions of repetitions of that particular situation for that particular player assuming he plays it exactly the same way. And you need millions of repetitions for virtually every single card situation in poker that you play in an identical way in order to negate the luck factor. So saying that playing a hundred thousand HU games takes luck out of the equation is a huge understatement, more likely you need trillions of games with every single repetition of the same situation played exactly the same in order to completely negate luck. And all that does is taking the luck out and it guarantees that a winning strategy will make money and a losing strategy will lose money, in other words a winning strategy is always a must. Of course, humans don't live long enough to play trillions of poker games, and it's virtually impossible for humans to play every single situation in an identical way millions of times, but a artificial intelligence could and at the end of the trillions of games played using a winning strategy would be guaranteed to be hugely profitable despite a 10% rake.

What are you trying to do? You need help or you need more posts? I think, I've explained everything, then I see that you extract some sentence from the context and act like you haven't read previous posts.


:)
How can you say about "Yours or mine maths system?" Any mathematical equation is either true or either false, I've only told you that there are different ways to calculate equations, most common way is to use more data for the equation, you see results of such equations during poker streams, where they show you the numbers according to cards dealt to all players.

Example with the coin was necessary to explain how dispersion works and how to beat it. As for the rest - I've answered everything you needed to know in the very first post in this thread.

Good Luck.
 
zinzir

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What are you trying to do? You need help or you need more posts? I think, I've explained everything, then I see that you extract some sentence from the context and act like you haven't read previous posts.


:)
How can you say about "Yours or mine maths system?" Any mathematical equation is either true or either false, I've only told you that there are different ways to calculate equations, most common way is to use more data for the equation, you see results of such equations during poker streams, where they show you the numbers according to cards dealt to all players.

Example with the coin was necessary to explain how dispersion works and how to beat it. As for the rest - I've answered everything you needed to know in the very first post in this thread.

Good Luck.
I didn't say anything about yours or mine math systems, I simply referred to the second of your own described math systems. You described two math systems, not me, read your own post. I was actually trying to help you by explaining how your statements were mathematically incorrect. If that bothered you, I apologize. Good luck! PS: in a forum people exchange ideas, not truths. It applies to all of us, including me and you.
 
finaltable1

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I didn't say anything about yours or mine math systems, I simply referred to the second of your own described math systems. You described two math systems, not me, read your own post. I was actually trying to help you by explaining how your statements were mathematically incorrect. If that bothered you, I apologize. Good luck! PS: in a forum people exchange ideas, not truths. It applies to all of us, including me and you.


Why incorrect? I've said earlier that If you have a winning strategy then you need to test it in the long run to get rid of dispersion...
You see, your point about "ideas not truths" isn't correct. We exchange information here, it includes different types of information, even humor. But what is the difference between information and orange, for example? Let's say I have 2 oranges, you have zero. If I'll give you 2 oranges - you'll have 2, and I'll have zero oranges. In case of information - if I'm giving you information then both of us will have it, it's not leaving me, like those 2 oranges. That's why forum is a better place then for example Amazon.com, one site is designed to share and discuss the information, other one is designed to extract profit by "selling 2 oranges".

What I saw from your recent posts is that at some point you might have missed the whole information and answered one of my new messages forgetting about my previous posts. It's ok, such things happen because this conversation lasts for several days now. Well, maybe I haven't explained something correctly, cause English is not my native language, but so far I keep in mind logic of my posts in this thread, and feel that things are correct. After all, i'm typing what I think, without any preparations and editing, if you need a short and full answer to your questions it's better to ask such questions in the youtube search field, so you can hear and watch things you're looking for. CardsChat also has youtube channel, and there is article section here with tons of useful information.
 
TeUnit

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This sounds like the kind of villan you would want to play, min raise him from the sb, establish a range for his big 3bets and 4b/shove him for value.
 
zinzir

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Why incorrect? I've said earlier that If you have a winning strategy then you need to test it in the long run to get rid of dispersion...
You see, your point about "ideas not truths" isn't correct. We exchange information here, it includes different types of information, even humor. But what is the difference between information and orange, for example? Let's say I have 2 oranges, you have zero. If I'll give you 2 oranges - you'll have 2, and I'll have zero oranges. In case of information - if I'm giving you information then both of us will have it, it's not leaving me, like those 2 oranges. That's why forum is a better place then for example Amazon.com, one site is designed to share and discuss the information, other one is designed to extract profit by "selling 2 oranges".

What I saw from your recent posts is that at some point you might have missed the whole information and answered one of my new messages forgetting about my previous posts. It's ok, such things happen because this conversation lasts for several days now. Well, maybe I haven't explained something correctly, cause English is not my native language, but so far I keep in mind logic of my posts in this thread, and feel that things are correct. After all, i'm typing what I think, without any preparations and editing, if you need a short and full answer to your questions it's better to ask such questions in the youtube search field, so you can hear and watch things you're looking for. CardsChat also has youtube channel, and there is article section here with tons of useful information.


I am not the one bothered by our going back and forth, exchanging ideas. You were, accusing me of posting for the sake of increasing my numbers (by the way, if I need more posts, they don't have to be here, discussing with you, there are numerous other threads and discussion partners). I have read your posts, replied to them respectfully and expressed my own opinions under the impression that you would actually be happy to read them, not necessarily adopt what I was saying, but give it some consideration, which is exactly what your example with oranges and information is about. You seem to be under the impression that was asking you to teach me how to play, but I never asked you to teach me anything, our conversation started with me respectfully asking you to clarify what you meant by saying "you cat beat the rake by playing more hands", a statement I believed and I still believe to be false. I have discussed with you under the premise of equality, and I think you mistakenly assumed a mentoring position, and got irritated by me challenging you. I am happy to converse with you even further, on this thread or others, so we can both learn from each other. As equal discussion partners.
 
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ussys

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Your mistake is obvious.


And Yes, You're correct about some things. Poker becomes more and more popular in Russia and post-Soviet countries, they even have their own poker rooms and they had, still have and getting new poker training sites every year, where mathematical part of the game is explained very well, together with psychological and all other points of views. Also since education at all levels is free or almost free in these countries, it's no wonder that they have top scientists/programmers/hackers and their students win gold medals at maths/physics/programming world championships each year.

LOL if we'll compare average Russian player to average Brasilian player, for example... Majority of Russians don't have Atlantic ocean with beaches nearby and Samba Carnivals, during cold winters they prefer to solve puzzles, and play intellectual table games at home. Another example -If we'll compare average German player to average American, we'll see that in a $2 MTT German player will fold JKs to a 50% stack all-in, just because it's a JK, while American player will always call, just because it's just 2dollars. Don't call me any kind of poker racist, I'm playing approx 10 different poker sites for really long time and see these cultural differences in the game... that's why some poker sites like party and acr are upgrading to hiding the location and flag info, and even allow to change the nicknames now.

Together with said above, I must mention that my native language is Russian and I live in ex Soviet Republic, but I also know several more languages and after browsing different poker communities in several different languages I must say that poker schools are completely different in many countries. Even British - American poker is different, however they're both in the English poker "zone"... Obvious example is "10 premium hands chart" listed here at CardsChat, Russians think different, they would have a good laugh by looking at these "Premiums" here.

What you've described is correct, and your mistake is obvious and simple. Stealing-shmealing, 10-20-30 BBs = simply forget about such BS in HU or 3-way games :)) Specially if it's a short stacked game with fast blinds that can be launched several times per minute... If it's $10 buy-in game, then think about your stack as a single $10 bet, instead of thinking about it as a 10-20-30BB chip stack. You're showing to Russian reg. player your weaknesses during first blind levels. His position is always strong, it's like he's saying "Ok, I got the cards, I bet $10, let's see who will win", while you're trying to say "maybe I have a hand, let's see a flop, then I'll decide if it's worth to bluff or to bet\call with good outs and so on". So basically you're saying "I'm not sure, I want to be sure when I'll see the flop, maybe I'll bet $1.5 instead of betting whole $10"... You know what? You're losing respect points in your opponents eyes when you're doing this. Russian regulars know perfectly that any two cards can win, but some cards win more often. They also know that online poker is a rake generating system, it's not a real life poker, where tells, reads, and deep thinking have value. In online poker, specially in HU SNGs value comes from the number of games, all they have to do is to pick "the dealer" side and play against gamblers, it's like you're playing against roulette, and you have 18 red numbers on your side, while he has 18 blacks plus one green, in the long run he will always win, all he has to do is to keep playing against such "gamblers" who split their $10 bet into 30bb stack and play HU SNG poker like if it's the final table of 5 day WSOP tourney, "as seen on TV" LOL.

Nash, GTO or ABC... it's all true and it's all lie at the same time, Russian poker sites are teaching them to switch gears against same opponents...

P.S. Braslian poker school, together with poker media in Brasil are drawing same picture for all types of games, you will find that average brasilian player is playing MTT for several hours the same way like if it's a Hyper-Turbo short stacked HU SNG... A7 = Preflop ALL-IN, Because it's Ace, and doesn't matter if there was a 3bet infront of him from a very tight player, he simply accepts the fact of maximum loss of his buy-in in this current hand and does not cares about time spent, ICM and other factors, he's providing you with 2 simple choices = call or fold. That's what the rest of the world doesn't really like about Brasilian players, cause sometimes they beat your pocket kings with trash like A8os, and our brain will keep such bad beats for much longer time, than normal vice-versa wins, when your best pre-flop hands beats opponents garbage.

Regs and Pros have no nationality, players of the top level almost equally understand the game, What I've said above was about average players... You might be surprised that premium hands in China include 78s, not only because 8 is the lucky number, but also because it's middle of the range, and such cards have good post-flop value for straigh-flush-set-2pairs together with being less predictable for traditional western poker players...


That's a good point about Brazilian players, very often them pushed without any ideas and outs, i think this refer all Latin America, sometimes such action get annoy. Just need to watch and you can catch them.
excellent text...!

:captain:
 
finaltable1

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I am not the one bothered by our going back and forth, exchanging ideas. You were, accusing me of posting for the sake of increasing my numbers (by the way, if I need more posts, they don't have to be here, discussing with you, there are numerous other threads and discussion partners). I have read your posts, replied to them respectfully and expressed my own opinions under the impression that you would actually be happy to read them, not necessarily adopt what I was saying, but give it some consideration, which is exactly what your example with oranges and information is about. You seem to be under the impression that was asking you to teach me how to play, but I never asked you to teach me anything, our conversation started with me respectfully asking you to clarify what you meant by saying "you cat beat the rake by playing more hands", a statement I believed and I still believe to be false. I have discussed with you under the premise of equality, and I think you mistakenly assumed a mentoring position, and got irritated by me challenging you. I am happy to converse with you even further, on this thread or others, so we can both learn from each other. As equal discussion partners.



Really? ME? Accusing YOU in THIS?
You see, you're taking things wrong, I've asked you, what's your goal, what's the point in continuing the conversation, but used some other words I've typed a QUESTION! I've asked if you're trying to get more posts... I can't accuse you in such things LOL this forum needs more people who type posts and threads, cause each new word increases Cardschats page rank in google search results...

Now, as for the rest of your message, about the "mentoring part" and rest of the BS. I don't really care what you and many other peoples believe in, you may say that Beating the rake is false, ducks are not deuces, rockets are not aces, Buddha exists and Jesus not, Reptiloids are ruling the planet, and it's flat.... I'm kinda indifferent to your faith, not only yours, don't forget about 99.9999% of remaining humans. My position is " Good that you have a faith, you have a goal and you're a thinking person, but I'm really indifferent". Why? Cause I'm asking myself a question - What it's giving me?

In this conversation my goal was to help. You've asked, I've answered. Can this be considered as act of "teaching" or "mentoring"? You can answer to yourself, it's a rhetorical question. Rest of the conversation I've spent trying to help you even more and trying to find out what's your goal? I felt and still feel like you're continuing this conversation without a goal, or you have something childish on your mind, like "whoever says the last word wins". Ok you've won, I see no sense going deeper. Good Luck
 
finaltable1

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That's a good point about Brazilian players, very often them pushed without any ideas and outs, i think this refer all Latin America, sometimes such action get annoy. Just need to watch and you can catch them.
excellent text...!

:captain:



I believe that poker culture, poker streamers and commentators are also guilty. ;)

If you ever watched Brasilian commentators in football ad compared them to German commentators - you would see the difference much clearer. Carnival starts when team scores a gol.

Not sure if Braslian poker streamers aren't dancing samba after each pot they win. And probably praying on their knees to Jesus Christ and to Santa Maria is the main reason why they win pre-flop allins holding A6 vs opp AK :D:D:D:D
 
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