Advice on this situation

i would like to know if this play is totally wrong or not bad. i am at a tournament we are at the bubble and the same guy goes all in 3 times in a row , at the third time i have AJs everybody folded i am last to call , we have almost the same bankroll and we are far ahead of the other players , i could even fold and still in the money comfortably or call and be the chip leader and far from the competition ( almost securing first place ) , so i decided to call he had AK and i lost...

You can not expect a player who pushes three times in a row - bad cards. Even if it is a player with a large stack (one of the chip leaderboard on the bubble). This can only be expected from a maniac player who pushes every hand, one by one. Only three hands in a row means nothing.

On the bubble you must be prudent. I could understand if you called with QQ +. AJ is not a good hand. There are many hands that will beat you. And besides, you risk your money on a bubble. You have to call only if you have no choice - there are too few chips left that are definitely not enough to get a place in the prize zone.

actually if i might add , the first all in when everyone folded he showed his cards it was AK , then he went all in the second time , and all in the third time. he was kinda loose before those shoves. 40% hands played. i thought well what are the odds giving he had ak on the first all in that he would had AJ. it is still a bad call ? ^^ and thanks for your time and advices )

I find that good hands come in multiples. You can be card dead for two hours, then all of a sudden they start coming. Depends a lot on your read of the guy, but AJ still isn't the greatest hand. That said, I would probably make the same call you did in an effort to double up and take first place.

PS - I lose w/ AK against Ax maybe 8 out of 10 times, but that's just me (bad luck in cards, ....)

I get what you where thinking when a guy push 3 times in a row, he cant have a valid hand
to do so, but if you reverse that way of thinking you could also claim that he have to have
pretty solid hand the 3rd time to do so, or else someone will pick up on it at call his bluff.

I hear you say he was pretty active before that as well, so i guess you must have decided
that he play pretty loose, so i do understand how you think the AJ could be good there.

The math side of it, AJ dont perform that well overall i preflop bingo
AJ vs K8 = 65%
AJ vs 33 = 47%
AJ vs AK = 24%
AJ vs QQ = 28%
AJ vs T9s= 60%
AJ vs AT = 68%
Thats an average of 48% against 2 random cards.

Now its up to you to decide if 48% on average is enough for you on money bubbles

Ask yourself, can I still win this tournament if I fold this hand. If yes than fold and wait for the money then play.

wrong decision

weezy1312 said:

i would like to know if this play is totally wrong or not bad. i am at a tournament we are at the bubble and the same guy goes all in 3 times in a row , at the third time i have AJs everybody folded i am last to call , we have almost the same bankroll and we are far ahead of the other players , i could even fold and still in the money comfortably or call and be the chip leader and far from the competition ( almost securing first place ) , so i decided to call he had AK and i lost...

Click to expand...

looks like you made he wrong play guy, clearly dominated

I think AJ was a little to risky of a play in that spot . I agree with your thinking but I feel the best you could end up with is a coin flip , with AJ . If he was a short stack ok , but not for your tournament life . Good luck next time .

I would have folded AJ here. You are easily dominated by AQ, AK, JJ+. Flipping against a lower pair. Even if he’s pretty loose, he might have A10 (you would have him dominated) maybe something like KQs and even then you aren’t a great favourite. Really not much you would be far ahead with and not worth the risk unless you were really short. Best to fold and wait for a better hand.

It would be different if you opened the pot all in because then you would have fold equity as well but AJ not a great hand to call all in.

Good luck in the future.

In a bubble calling all in, without seeing, flop is wrong. Even if you have AA is wrong. You can lose even if he has 72 and you’re tournament life is over. That’s happened to me and I learned my lesson. As I understand you had lots of chips, so calling all in with AJ is really bad play.

Your calling range must be tighter, especially on the bubble. JJ+ AQs+.Even if he is shoving wrong ranges, you will be 70% in the best case scenarios. Not worth the risk imo.

Just fold there. You said that both of you were deep, so whay would u call him there? Even if he had weaker hand, no need really to risk whole stack there...and also, AJ is not so strong hand.
You would get much more better opportunities.

thank you guys for the advices and good luck on the tables )

This is one of those situations where you need to remember that calling an all-in in much different than going all-in yourself. You both have deep stacks and are way ahead of other players. You have no fold equity and AJs doesn't hold up very well against even a looser range:

- dominated by AK/AQ and JJ-AA
- coin flip against 22-TT
- slight edge against hands like KQ, KT, QT
- dominating A2-AT, KJ, QJ, JT

I agree with the earlier response about having a tighter calling range here, especially having such deep stacks. Sure, it's annoying to think somebody is pushing with garbage, but given his deep stack, you have to put him on a fairly tight range even shoving 3 times in a row.