Absence of Aces preflop and what it can mean for your MTT game

Things I have learned the hard way 101.

OK, new guys! This one is for you. Here is the basic chart "Absence of Aces preflop" from Super System 1. First the chart, and then I'll talk a bit about it.



Now, how to use this!

NOTE: That "number of players" is just that; do not get confused and think just because it has been folded around to you on the button and only the blinds are left to act that you can use the 3 player figures! Also, you must stick to the total number even if you have a lot of sit outs, as you just do not know what they are tossing into the muck every hand. This might seem obvious to you, but not everyone. It is an honest mistake to think this.

Looking at this, we can safely make a few assumptions using the odds of probability.

1) When you have an ace-rag (rag = 2 thru 9) 9 handed, the odds are 69% against you being the only one with an ace. So, therefore, not only does someone else have one, it is likely to be higher than yours. Why? Simple! We know at least two of you have an ace, therefore odds are good they are not the same hand. Therefore one has a bigger kicker than the other at least 50% of the time. So if you have A-6 and are facing an UTG raise and at least one caller, not only do one of them most likely have an ace as well, it most likely has a better kicker than yours because they raised UTG.

2) By the same token, if you raise on the button with a-rag and get re-raised out of the blinds, it possibly means you have kicker trouble. Since no one has yet showed strength yet, they could very well have a better than 9 kicker. That is often the limit for raising out of the blind preflop because you are first to act post flop. Or, they might just think if it was folded around to you that is why you are raising. Keep all that in mind. This is the danger of ace rag; you often will hit your ace, only to find out you are out kicked.

3) This can also be of value when you have AK/Q/J/10. The same odds apply. If someone is showing strength and you think it might be an ace, it will most likely be with a worse kicker. You can combine this with what you know about that guy raising UTG; If he only does it with an ace ( or often with any ace), you might want to see if he will call a re-raise or a shove because you know you got him outkicked. If he could do it with any or a small pair, then you know to be careful and not get into a coin flip with 2 overcards vs a pair and just call, see that flop. Just as well, you know if he has an ace rag the odds are good he can pair that weak kicker on a no-paint board. If he raises preflop with ace-rag and shows strength on the ragged flop, he could well have made a small pair. Now you have to use your pot odds and outs to see if you can chase and out-pair him with your better kicker.

4) As you can see, after you get down to the final table, the odds of someone else also having an ace diminishes with each fewer player. Once down to 6 players, there is better than a 50% chance no one has a ace if you do. By the time you hit 4 players, it's almost a 70% chance no one else has an ace if you do. Suddenly, kicker does not matter near as much. Since K-rag is also good short handed, that is what you have to watch out for now with your ace-rag; K, Q, and J's on the board.

5) There is also valuable info concerning the odds that anyone has an ace, period. By the time you get down to 4 players, the odds become better than 50% that no one has an ace when you do not as well. That can tell you that the guy raising does not necessarily have an ace. If he does, it most likely has a weak kicker. Again, this is why K/Q-rag go up in value while the number of players gets fewer.

6) Keep in mind what board over cards do to your hand when you do not pair your ace or your kicker, or if you only pair the ace. If you have A-6 and the villain has A-2, the board filling up with cards higher than a 6 will make it a split pot (7-9-10-K-A = split for A-6 and A-2; you both have A-A-K-10-9; 7-9-J-8-K = split as well; you both have A-K-J-9-8). Just as well, two aces and another pair can give you both the same full house, but be careful; if it is A-A-2-2-3, you could find yourself losing with AK to a guy with A-3. So use that chart and knowledge of your opponent to determine if this is the case. You might not want to shove thinking you can safely bluff him off the hand and split it at worse; you might very well just lose, period!

So, I hope this helps you guys as much as it has helped me. I really became more cautious with my Ace-rags after realizing all this; now I seldom find myself in a situation where I am out kicked by a guy with a better ace. If I do come in UTG or on the button with a weak ace, I know what to be aware of.

And now so should you.

Good article
And here another good advice
"A pair of A`s is only a pair. "
I often notice that players ,when they hit their pair of A ,think that they have the nuts and overplay their hand.

Great post, thanks.

Agreed, great post! is that an excerpt from Doylies book?

good post. not sure why the chart goes all the way to 20 though, since you cant have more than 10 people at a table, at least ive never seen more.

these odds are good to know though when you're facing a re-raise with any ace in your hand. they can just be too tempting to lay down sometimes.

GrandMaestro7 said:

Agreed, great post! is that an excerpt from Doylies book?

Click to expand...

Yes. I stated that already in the interest of full disclosure. What are you trying to do, get me sued, lol. (I'll have to send Doyle a nickel)

It was from volume 1 of course. It still holds to this day.

millertime said:

good post. not sure why the chart goes all the way to 20 though, since you cant have more than 10 people at a table, at least ive never seen more.

The absence of aces is not just for texas hold em. Although I also have no clue why it goes that high, that would be 40 out of 52 cards dealt out! Mike Caro (the mad genius) helped create it, so who knows? He might well have had a few people deal out 20 handed sessions a few thousand times to get to that point, lol. I'll revisit the book, I think it explains that.

these odds are good to know though when you're facing a re-raise with any ace in your hand. they can just be too tempting to lay down sometimes.

Click to expand...

Yes and they also clearly show why ace rag is so dangerous. I was very stubborn on this until I just flat out got tired of losing because I had kicker trouble almost every single time I played ace rag and paired my ace. It was actually at the point I would flop two pair and still lose when the better ace paired his kicker right along with me! It was just getting ridiculous. Pretty soon I would play ace rag and fold it because I knew the guy had a better ace. DOH! I then said to myself "that is just stupid, Mike, why the hell are you playing it then?" This was early in my playing days, before I read the book. Now I stick to Ace-rag only in very certain, limited situations (position, number of players, if suited or not, etc)

Nice post. When I read the table I was so scared at first. I thought that there is a 30 percent chance that someone has aces aka bullets on your table. Read the full article and feel much better now.

Sent from my GT-N7000 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

this has actually helped me out a lot today.

i have been playing a lot of h2h sngs and a few of these double up sngs that are 6 handed and top 3 pay. well, its been quite easy to read people's bluffs when i think, hmm we are 6 handed and only a 50% chance someone has an ace overall.

makes me feel a little more powerful with my ace rags, when i also did the same and folded quite a few of them outright. now i'm playing them and reading the table accordingly a lot better knowing these odds.

i have been folded to re-raises if i have a rag kicker. i'm noticing ppl are overplaying their ace rags more easily and picking up on when someone has a strong ace.

millertime said:

this has actually helped me out a lot today.

i have been playing a lot of h2h sngs and a few of these double up sngs that are 6 handed and top 3 pay. well, its been quite easy to read people's bluffs when i think, hmm we are 6 handed and only a 50% chance someone has an ace overall.

makes me feel a little more powerful with my ace rags, when i also did the same and folded quite a few of them outright. now i'm playing them and reading the table accordingly a lot better knowing these odds.

i have been folded to re-raises if i have a rag kicker. i'm noticing ppl are overplaying their ace rags more easily and picking up on when someone has a strong ace.

Click to expand...

It sure helped my game and I am glad it helped yours!

one of the hardest things for me is to not get discouraged as you alluded to in your other post^

i need some visual reminders like this to keep myself feeling on top of my game mentally. i tend to take a few bad tourneys or cash sessions and feel like poker is against me and need to refresh my brain. i feel like maybe i should buy a doyle book and read it or something to keep my mind right. i used to go read a chapter every time i was in barnes and noble (which isnt often) and go home and play like a champ for a few weeks.

I am even skeptical about A/10 too many times I have been busted with J-K kicker. One should know that a good player is not normally going to play ace rag so if you have A-10 and your opponent is going after you then what does he have? I do play A-10 but I approach the hand defensively. Ofcourse there are alot of bad players who think a pair of aces with deuce kicker is the nuts lol.

What causes problems for me is suited ace rag when I hit an ace on the flop and just dont know what to do then. Now I treat a suited ace rag as a hand for making the nut flush and top kicker for my other pair. I subsequently dont consider suited ace rag as good a pre-flop hand as I used to previously.

millertime said:

one of the hardest things for me is to not get discouraged as you alluded to in your other post^

i need some visual reminders like this to keep myself feeling on top of my game mentally. i tend to take a few bad tourneys or cash sessions and feel like poker is against me and need to refresh my brain. i feel like maybe i should buy a doyle book and read it or something to keep my mind right. i used to go read a chapter every time i was in barnes and noble (which isnt often) and go home and play like a champ for a few weeks.

Click to expand...

It is still a great book. It has truly stood the test of time. There are tons of books out that are, quite literally, "here today-gone tomorrow"; it takes time for the wrong information many spew just to fill a book to be uncovered and exposed.

As a matter of fact, Super system 1 was so good I asked for SS2 for fathers day. I would not even think about not having these around as I refer to them constantly. Even all these years later, it still is not a cheap book. If you want to save a few, check a reputable dealer on Ebay or Amazon.

Thinker_145 said:

I am even skeptical about A/10 too many times I have been busted with J-K kicker. One should know that a good player is not normally going to play ace rag so if you have A-10 and your opponent is going after you then what does he have? I do play A-10 but I approach the hand defensively. Ofcourse there are alot of bad players who think a pair of aces with deuce kicker is the nuts lol.

What causes problems for me is suited ace rag when I hit an ace on the flop and just dont know what to do then. Now I treat a suited ace rag as a hand for making the nut flush and top kicker for my other pair. I subsequently dont consider suited ace rag as good a pre-flop hand as I used to previously.

Click to expand...

Well, that is the catch 22. Yet I have found If I have to play an ace rag, I will do so gladly if it is suited. When I do make a pair of aces and miss my flush, here is what I do; use pot control!

This is a perfect example of needing it. Pot control can ensure you do not go broke with that weak ace.

Now, sometimes if I check my top pair/weak kicker and someone has or does bet, I just might min-check-raise, if I can afford it (see what the board looks like, if good situation for a semi-bluff against even a strong ace). The advantage of that is they just may very well be in with a bad kicker of their own or afraid you have 2 pair already! The down side is that while you might get to peel off one or even two cards for free, you can end up at the showdown dead as a nail. However, you raised one extra bet and got 2 cards for what might have cost you 3 bets (flop turn river). Even better, they might just fold. Most people consider a check raise to be a strong move made with only a strong hand. This is often what someone holding a set does, so that is really what you are saying; be careful then if flush/st8 cards hit the turn or river and you are bluffing a set.

The person you check raise will often flat call and check the turn if they are not sure what you got or have kicker trouble just like you do. A third barrell you fire at them might get them off, it might not. If they still bet out after calling your check raise, they could very well be there; you are beat, just give it up or check it down if you can (pot control) when you have flat called if getting the right pot odds to chase your kicker/draw.

The above is what knowledgeable players often do. You could be facing a terrible calling station (try to know this beforehand). Nothing more aggravating than check raising someone on every street IP and they still min bet every street OOP and then just flat call your raise. When I find a player willing to do that, I will get all their chips sooner or later. I will felt them.

I minimize this horribly dangerous hand by:

1.) Sticking to suited far more than offsuit.
2.) If off-suited, avoiding (like the plague) 6-9; you cannot make a wheel or better than a one-card st8. I do not even like completing the small blind with this. Give me 2-3 off or 2-7 suited instead, please.
3.) Raising, not calling, suited or not, if I play it at all. (I stick to a standard size to avoid betting tells)
4.) Position; if I have it, I am adding that strength to my weak hand. I will almost never raise in an early position with a weak ace. Suited or not.
5.) Pot control; If I go all in or bet big with ace rag, it will only be after the river, when I have 2 pair and my kicker is the next high card on the board without possible/feasible st8's (it is very rare to find this board situation) Many will call all in with top pair top kicker alone on the flop, then hit that better kicker and kill you.
6.) Treat this hand like a specialized tool in my poker tool box. Only use when the job calls for it. I let everyone else use it as a multi tool for any job. And you know what happens when you use the screwdriver on your swiss army knife instead of a proper screwdriver; takes longer, harder to tighten fully, might snap off and hurts your hand while using it more than a regular screwdriver.

I shift gears to stay unpredictable if at all possible, so I might violate these rules as needed. But I have far more success sticking to it.

What makes me decide to play a hand whether it is ace rag suited or any other hand I may play is many different variables. First my opponents that are still in the hand, their range, their skill level, and betting patterns. Second, I analyze my stack and compare it to the pot, my opponents stacks, etc. Third and the most important is position, early position these hands can get you in trouble, later position can optimize your hand value. Those three assessments are crucial when deciding to play moderate hands. Playing a wide range is what ultimately pays off but it needs to be done correctly.

NateVest said:

What makes me decide to play a hand whether it is ace rag suited or any other hand I may play is many different variables. First my opponents that are still in the hand, their range, their skill level, and betting patterns. Second, I analyze my stack and compare it to the pot, my opponents stacks, etc. Third and the most important is position, early position these hands can get you in trouble, later position can optimize your hand value. Those three assessments are crucial when deciding to play moderate hands. Playing a wide range is what ultimately pays off but it needs to be done correctly.

Click to expand...

Yep, and that chart can help immensely. That is why they recommend if you are going to play it, raise with it as if you do have AK or AA IP if limped to. If not, do not bother just flat calling. AA, AK, AQ AJ suited most common Aces UTG raising hands. So if you do not know for certain the guy could be UTG raising with something else, you better hope you are suited and hit a flush or hit two pair without a KQ or even J on the board. Yuo will not know that until after the river. It is so hard to hit top two pair with ace rag.

msankadi said:

Nice post. When I read the table I was so scared at first. I thought that there is a 30 percent chance that someone has aces aka bullets on your table. Read the full article and feel much better now.

Sent from my GT-N7000 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

Click to expand...

Good, because the last thing I want is for you to misread it and get felted! I included all the explanations as they cover that in the chapter of SS1 and have that chart as an appendix. That chart alone is nothing if you do not get that insight too.

psychotie said:

Good article
And here another good advice
"A pair of A`s is only a pair. "
I often notice that players ,when they hit their pair of A ,think that they have the nuts and overplay their hand.

Click to expand...

If that is the only mistake I made in grammar, I can live with it, lol.
Sorry!

thread deserves a bump. have thought about this thread a lot since 1st reading it and have applied it positively to my game.