The first hand would be (12/52*3/51)=1.4% (any of AA, KK or QQ), then (8/50*3/49)=0.98%, and then finally (4/48*3/47)=0.53%, so then timed together and multiplied by the permutations would give slightly better odds than that of about 74000/1, which is still unlikely, since you'd then expect to see it on average once in over 10,000 hours of play.
I wouldn't be at all phased to see it happen on one site once, or another once... twice at the same site would be a more freak occurence, although you'd also have to bear in mind that with sites dealing sometimes 100,000's of hands a day, they could still be very uncommon and you just happen to be at the table where it hits the next time by some fluke and that would be a fluke but little evidence of site rigging.
As an aside, some people hold up AA vs KK as evidence of site rigging, but following the same chance * chance * permutation calculation, that's (at a full table) 0.9%*0.49%*45, so you'd expect to see that about once in every 500 hands? So thats a couple of times a week or more for most of us on here?
Using similar calculations, when you are holding KK, then you'll be up against AA in less than one in 20 hands... not often enough to count on it happening, but often enough that getting done in by it will probably happen to you sooner or later.
__________________
David Burton
|