A question about variance and odds that puzzles me

vegasjj

vegasjj

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Here is something I have debated several times with several people, but have not really reached a good understanding. Maybe some of you can share your thoughts - see if it will help me settle it in my mind once and for all.

Just so there is no misunderstanding - I am a former math teacher - I understand the odds - and there is ZERO doubt in my mind that with large enough a sample the actual outcome of hands will prove to be very close to the calculated odds.

However - the variances will happen up and down whenever they will happen, and you get your "lucky streak" or "bad luck streak". I personally do not have a tracker - and I am clearly conscious of the fact that I (and probably most) will tend to remember the "bad beats" - and forget the wins. Realistically a 70/30 odd means that out of 10 hand u will win 7 and lose 3. But the 7 will be "non events", just "normal" while the 3 will hurt like hell, since "we were ahead and should have won!"

Here is however the real "luck" factor that as far as I can tell there is NO AVOIDING IT in MTT: To continue with the example above, the 7 wins could be early, could be at small relative insignificant size pots, and if just 1 of the 3 "bad beats" happen near bubble - or just be it that it ends your tourney life - the 7 wins HAVE NO VALUE. Your buy-in is gone, your tourney life is over. Or look at you making some decent results in $2 buy-in ...then your "proper share of bad beats" get's you in this $100 buy-in game.

Would really love to hear comments on this topic.
Thanks
 
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baudib1

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Not sure I understand what you are asking.

I don't really think there is a thing such as luck but the term "variance" is more complex than people think. There are things that are beyond your control that have a major impact on how hands are played out and if they come at critical times, well there's no guarantee that you will run near expectations in those spots. And of course not all spots are the same.

Give you some examples:
In 2003, Chris Moneymaker gets it all in deep in the Main Event against Phil Ivey. Moneymaker has AQ vs. Ivey's 99 on QQx9. Moneymaker hits an A on the river to eliminate Ivey. If the river is a brick, Ivey has a huge stack and very likely crushes the field, forever changing poker history.

Chris Moneymaker isn't likely to be on the FT bubble for a $1M+ payout anytime soon, and the fame from the win has probably generated a ton of +EV in his life. Unless he degens it all away, the "luck" probably isn't going to even out in Moneymaker's favor.

Phil Ivey, of course, is one of the most famous players in the world, but if he wins that hand, he very likely crushes the FT and wins a ME bracelet. On the other hand, it is possible that the poker boom that followed Moneymaker's win (really, Hollywood couldn't make up a story like him) made Ivey richer than he ever would.

Ivey actually made another FT in the ME, and got knocked out with AK vs. AQ. These are just normal bad beats that everyone suffers constantly, but I think it's fair to say that Ivey's not running well in huge spots near the FT in the ME, and this is part of variance that isn't likely to balance out for him.
 
Daniel72

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"Here is however the real "luck" factor that as far as I can tell there is NO AVOIDING IT in MTT: To continue with the example above, the 7 wins could be early, could be at small relative insignificant size pots, and if just 1 of the 3 "bad beats" happen near bubble - or just be it that it ends your tourney life - the 7 wins HAVE NO VALUE. Your buy-in is gone, your tourney life is over. Or look at you making some decent results in $2 buy-in ...then your "proper share of bad beats" get's you in this $100 buy-in game. "


This "luck factor" is also only short term, you just have to play enough situations / tournaments / buy-ins / hands / bubbles ... and you also will be on the other side of the "bad luck" - hopefully more often, because you make good decisions.
The variance is brutal, because almost every hand has a chance of 30 or 40 %, and thats almost a coin flip...
 
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Henreiman

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The answer in short is that you are correct, but you're under the assumption that the time variance goes against us we are getting knocked out. Most strong MTT players are considered good because they are able to use aggression/tells to create big enough stacks that they can absorb variance. Of course, they only ship it once in every ten, twenty, forty, etc tournaments and cash minimally. If it were simply up to getting it in with the best hand, obviously you'd see the same pros shipping every tournament.
 
Kenzie 96

Kenzie 96

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I could clear this up for you, but, in all my years, nothing good has ever come of my talking to math teachers. :eek: ;)
 
prepare

prepare

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what I think he is talking about is the profitability of MTT's with the luck factor of MTT's.

Lets say that through the duration of the tournament you will always get your money in good 70/30.

this might be shocking to some who have never thought about it but the chances of winning a 70/30

two times = 49%
three times = 34%
four times = 24%
fives times = 16%

so on and so forth

The thing about MTT's is that the money is in the top places. So in order for you to get down that far, you really have to be lucky. Because lets face it, nobody is that good that the can get their in good 70% of the time, you can't win all the time and MTT's are lotteries? Because for you to be successful in MTT's you have to get far, and for you to get far you have to be lucky? (That's probably a hyperbole, but you should get my point)

The truth is that yes you do have to be lucky to win or go far in an MTT. If your not lucky, you are probably not going to be anywhere near the top money spots.

Now that that is over,

There are a couple things on why its not a complete lottery. Strategy. That is a very very broad topic when talking about poker that I can not give you a great answer as to why it works. but here are some examples.

getting a big stack size early. if you get a good stack size, than all the bad luck stuff is not going to eliminate you. You can lose a couple of all ins and still have a pretty good stack.

playing small ball, if you have a really good small ball game. you can get a big stack and not even risk your whole stack while getting there.

Fold equity. good players love to fold. If no one is going to call you to the show down, you can get a pretty big stack pretty damn fast. Basically all of my final table/sit and go strategy is this right here. You can't win an MTT like this, or even get deep into it, but it can help stop the bleeding when bad luck hits.

I can't prove to you that these strategies mathematically will make a tourney profitable, my math is not that good. there are too many variables I wouldn't really know where to start. But if you look at the majors MTT players online you will find out some sort of strategy works, because people have been profitable for years in MTT's. So it can't just be a lottery.
 
vegasjj

vegasjj

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Very helpful to me the comments - thank you very much!
Finally I get some confirmation that to win MTT's you need some good luck.
Poker knowledge and strategies - go a long way to help, but luck is a major factor.

And of course not all spots are the same.
Love your example - and it's LONG term effect

I could clear this up for you, but, in all my years, nothing good has ever come of my talking to math teachers. :eek: ;)
I was one - past tense - very tame now
smileylaughing.gif


The truth is that yes you do have to be lucky to win or go far in an MTT. If your not lucky, you are probably not going to be anywhere near the top money spots.

Now that that is over,

There are a couple things on why its not a complete lottery. Strategy.

Love your pointers!
 
Arjonius

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Here is however the real "luck" factor that as far as I can tell there is NO AVOIDING IT in MTT: To continue with the example above, the 7 wins could be early, could be at small relative insignificant size pots, and if just 1 of the 3 "bad beats" happen near bubble - or just be it that it ends your tourney life - the 7 wins HAVE NO VALUE. Your buy-in is gone, your tourney life is over. Or look at you making some decent results in $2 buy-in ...then your "proper share of bad beats" get's you in this $100 buy-in game.
You can't control when the odds will hold up and when you'll get sucked out on, so the type of scenario you've described can indeed happen. They happen the other way around too, but for some reason(s), those situations don't tend to stick in many people's memories either. Suckouts that went against them weight more heavily in their minds than those that went for them, which tends to tip the overall perceived balance even farther in the negative direction.
 
XXXDIRTYDOGXXX

XXXDIRTYDOGXXX

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You know the old saying what is the definition of stupid?
Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
In poker it's not stupid it's just variance.

I'm an over thinker, one of those guys who start with a story and end up forgetting wtf I was trying to say.

I do it with poker numbers ,odds, probabilities you name it and I suck at typing so it makes it even harder to get across what I want to say.

well I'm always asking the how,why, what and people don't like it. I would rather talk face to face than try and type it because it takes too long to explain what I meant when I hurt someones feelings.

I tell the truth as I see it and 99% people don't want to hear it they want to hear what will make them feel good. I'm one of them.

See there I go shooting off in another direction.

Well anyway I hope this doesn't hurt too many feelings but odds say it will.

Variance: and I'll use baseball as my example. Why do most great players don't make great coaches,managers, or instructors and we'll take out the part where they have made so much money they don't care.
Mostly because they can only see what to do when and where in themselves.
All your great coaches and instructors are guys that really didn't have a stellar career, yes there are some that did but you get my point.
Well that's what we have in these forums that are all over the internet, everyone giving great advice but how many are crushing these games that they don't have to get up Monday morning and kiss the kids and say see you at dinner.
Now again let me say this is not a knock on anyone that posts or replies it's just an example of variance we can all say 70/30 over the long run we will win
but there are so many things outside of odds, probabilities and making the correct move at the correct time that affect what happens.
I believe even if I do every correct move from now on I still may not be a winner, so don't try to figure it out just try and learn, play your best, and make friends.
 
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baudib1

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I'll give another example similar to the Moneymaker post I made, which wasn't well-written.

Antonio Esfandiari gets it in with AA vs. Jason Mercier's KK in the One Drop Tournament. He wins, giving him a massive stack, and he continues to build it and wins the event for $18 MIRRION. Reverse the hands and it's very likely that Mercier makes the final table and wins himself.

Anytime someone wins a tournament, there is going to be variance involved. Either you went on a massive heater, hit your draws, cooler someone or hit a miracle to win somewhere along the way. Getting AA vs. KK and holding at such a crucial spot is really lucky.

Those things happen and there's not much you can do to control either one. What you can do, and the reason why MTT pros are successful over the LONG LONG TERM is that they build their stacks in non-showdown hands and win chips without relying solely on card equity.
 
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tcummo

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What is the difference between cash games and mtt as far as variance goes?
Seems to me playing 'cash games' would have less variance than 'mtt'.
Or is this just 'plum loco' talk?
 
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Big_Rudy

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What is the difference between cash games and mtt as far as variance goes?
Seems to me playing 'cash games' would have less variance than 'mtt'.
Or is this just 'plum loco' talk?

Nope, this is pretty-much standard theory. An oversimplification, but if you look at a winning cash player's graph, it should be generally rising, but with occassional dips. There likely aren't any huge swings anywhere. Graph gradually rises, perhaps goes into a gradual dip for awhile, rights itself and begins a gradual climb again.

If you look at a winning mtt player's graph, though, you'll generally see a pretty steady and consistent downsloping graph, punctuated by a few massive upward spikes where he takes down a decent tourney, or at least places well.

Mtts are just inherently more swingy than cash. On a typical day for a winning cash gamer, he can reasonably expect to win. On a typical day for a winning mtt player, it's still quite likely he'll have a losing day. Mtters live for the occassional big payday and are willing to put up with the many routinely small losing days to get there.
 
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tcummo

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Nope, this is pretty-much standard theory. An oversimplification, but if you look at a winning cash player's graph, it should be generally rising, but with occassional dips. There likely aren't any huge swings anywhere. Graph gradually rises, perhaps goes into a gradual dip for awhile, rights itself and begins a gradual climb again.

If you look at a winning mtt player's graph, though, you'll generally see a pretty steady and consistent downsloping graph, punctuated by a few massive upward spikes where he takes down a decent tourney, or at least places well.

Mtts are just inherently more swingy than cash. On a typical day for a winning cash gamer, he can reasonably expect to win. On a typical day for a winning mtt player, it's still quite likely he'll have a losing day. Mtters live for the occassional big payday and are willing to put up with the many routinely small losing days to get there.

Thanks m8,
"live long and prosper"
:)
 
Arjonius

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What is the difference between cash games and mtt as far as variance goes?
Seems to me playing 'cash games' would have less variance than 'mtt'.
Or is this just 'plum loco' talk?
While MTTs do have more variance, they're not all the same. The larger the average field size you play against, the greater your variance is likely to be, even if your overall ROI is the same. This is because of the way prize tables are top-weighted combined with the much larger difference between the entry cost and the payoff for a high placing.
 
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