A question about variance and odds that puzzles me
Here is something I have debated several times with several people, but have not really reached a good understanding. Maybe some of you can share your thoughts - see if it will help me settle it in my mind once and for all.
Just so there is no misunderstanding - I am a former math teacher - I understand the odds
- and there is ZERO doubt in my mind that with large enough a sample the actual outcome of hands will prove to be very close to the calculated odds.
However - the variances will happen up and down whenever they will happen, and you get your "lucky streak" or "bad luck streak". I personally do not have a tracker - and I am clearly conscious of the fact that I (and probably most) will tend to remember the "bad beats" - and forget the wins. Realistically a 70/30 odd means that out of 10 hand u will win 7 and lose 3. But the 7 will be "non events", just "normal" while the 3 will hurt like hell, since "we were ahead and should have won!"
Here is however the real "luck" factor that as far as I can tell there is NO AVOIDING IT in MTT: To continue with the example above, the 7 wins could be early, could be at small relative insignificant size pots, and if just 1 of the 3 "bad beats" happen near bubble - or just be it that it ends your tourney life - the 7 wins HAVE NO VALUE. Your buy-in is gone, your tourney life is over. Or look at you making some decent results in $2 buy-in ...then your "proper share of bad beats" get's you in this $100 buy-in game.
Would really love to hear comments on this topic.