re: Poker & Was this a maniac move on my part?
Originally Posted by Disciplined
Level 8 of tournament. 400/800/100
I have 40k chips. Villain has 45k chips.
(he has not been playing very aggressively, and has been getting lucky with a lot of premium pairs)
I'm in middle position with 8dTd. I bet 1600.
Villain in late position raises to 4600. Everyone else folds.
Pot now has 8400. I'm getting 1:2.8, call the 3000. Pot has 11,400.
I go all in. Villain calls with QQ.
His QQ prevails.
I really wanted him to fold.
I don't know, i thought my fold equity plus my 9 outs (plus backup plan of rr flush) justified the push.
Was it a complete maniac move on my part?
Instead of saying yes/no, lets look at it this way (Things I have learned the hard way, 101);
Preflop call of 3-bet: Not bad. Why? If you fold to every 3-bet, they know you are raising weak. See #4 for the rest on that, however, because you had the wrong hand to do that with.
Flop shove: Horrible. You are:
(1) Out of position.
(2) Looking at a highly coordinated board with a possible flush you don't have. Do not chase a st8 draw into a flush draw. Do not chase top pair into a st8 or flush. By 'chasing' I mean shoving or calling huge bets (1/2-2/3 pot). A check to get info might lead to the guy checking back or under betting, then you have odds to chase or get a free card.
(3) Weak-vulnerable hand. Any of the following hands will/might call your shove or bet-3bet;
8-9 offsuit/hearts (made st8, nut-st8 flush draw)*unlikely button 3-bet pre
AK offsuit/hearts (gutshot st8, 2nd nut flush draw)*likely button 3-bet pre
KQ offsuit/hearts (open end st8, 3rd nut flush draw)*likely button 3-bet pre
Q-9 offsuit/hearts (open end st8, 4th nut flush draw) *unlikely button 3-bet pre
10-10, 7-7, JJ, (made set) *unlikely button 3-bet pre
, KK, AA (over pair to board) *likely button 3-bet pre
You are up against a mountain of possible cards (10 hands) he could
have that would kill you, so ask *"what could he have 3-bet with so large?" AK or big pair is the most likely He probably only flat calls with rest, unless LAG.
(3) You only had 7
outs to improve your hand, at this point.(Not 9 - you never
count runner-runner on a shove, it is 'the' long shot. If you call to maybe improve since you already have mid pair, that is one thing) 7h-10h-Jd (8d-10d) 3 non-heart 9's, 2-10's, 2 non-heart 8's.
(4) 8-10 suited is not
a good raising hand in middle position, even if folded to you, unless you have a good table image
and they assume AK or better. Now you know why. While you can open your range in the middle, you opened it a bit much for a raise you would not want to fold to a 3-bet. I would stick to raising in mid pos with stuff like KQoff/s, KJs, QJoff/s, Q10s, AQoff/s, AJs, stuff like that or better if folded to or with one limper
. Plus, with 8-10 suited, then if you don't want to limp in and call, fold. He might have instead min raised like you did if you limped and then you could flat call if you want. Yet, you gotta then flop real good, real good as in better than only one pair, even top, to continue with hand.
(5) Just not a scary enough board to bluff at. No paint. Even if there was, who pukes all in with top pair? So, even if an Ace or King had flopped, he would probably still have called. If a K or A did flop and you bet, he will most likely 3-bet or just call. If 3-bet, then you shove, he still calls, maybe. If he just calls, you gotta keep firing on the turn and river, before he honestly thinks you got that A or K, and he is beat. Since you only 2x bet pre and called, he should think that he could be beat. By shoving, you said "top pair or less". He just is not going to believe a set and will risk a flush draw. Problem with all of this? AA and KK were likely button 3-bet hands preflop. So, you would want your bluff to look like a flush draw, and hit that third heart. Even then, would you fold top set to a 3 card flush? Would he? So, not a good opportunity to bluff. Period.
This all assumes he is a good player. If not, then you forget all that; never bluff a weak player.
Just puttin in my $32 and two cents.