Is That 99 Worth It?

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Gregstocke

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Let's say your play has been patient and methodical and you've rejected all who attempt leadership. You've been able to look at numerous hands by getting in on the cheap with relatively strong hands. It took awhile, but now with your last win you've accelerated to the top 10-20% of the field. Your stach is a respectable 20,000 chips, you're the leader at your table, life is good. All of a sudden you get pocket 99 and they look mighty tasty. But, monkey-boy across the way goes all-in with about 8,000 chips. Your choice is to risk your solid advantage and be reduced to a place that could make you steam-n-tilt, or, do the unthinkable, and actually lay 99 down. What do you do? If you decide to call, you will have changed your style of play. And, you will be a follower, instead of a positioned leader. You greatly risk playing into strength greater than your own, such as pps, 10, J, Q, K, A, or a deadly poised combo of any of those two overcards. How strong is your pp 99 really? Is it really worth risking essentially half your stack and your glorious standing? Is this really the time to play oh-what-the-hey, I'm Mr. 99?
 
xastaria

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Well, i know that filling,two weeks a go i was 4th with 145.000 chips in a freeroll of 10000 players.i was playing very tight.in my table i had a monkey boy with 65.000 chips he was all in every few hands!And 99 came,again he was all in!i took the risk he had "6 and 10"unsuited.ok i thought i was right, 65.000 more chips for me!!!yes!but the flop has different
opinion " 4,k, and 10 "so i lost my chips!!! you must be strong and never play pps of 99,10,JJ WHEN YOU HAVE SO MANY CHIPS.DO YOUR GAME NO MONKEYBOYS GAME!!!
 
es530

es530

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Hello, I wonder if this action actually occurred, if the answer is yes, and it was in online poker, and you have the story in question, please post in the segment analyze hands so we can give better answers.
 
Poker Orifice

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There's key information missing here that makes it IMPOSSIBLE to give you a solid response.
For starters...
We need to know the size of the blinds (& antes). (8,000 can mean 50bb's or it might be only 4bb's. There's a HUGE difference. 20,000 or 8,000 means nothing unless it is given with other info. so we know it's relative meaning.)
Then, the sizes of the stacks of all the players on the table & position for each.
Player reads.
 
Poker Orifice

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Well, i know that filling,two weeks a go i was 4th with 145.000 chips in a freeroll of 10000 players.i was playing very tight.in my table i had a monkey boy with 65.000 chips he was all in every few hands!And 99 came,again he was all in!i took the risk he had "6 and 10"unsuited.ok i thought i was right, 65.000 more chips for me!!!yes!but the flop has different
opinion " 4,k, and 10 "so i lost my chips!!! you must be strong and never play pps of 99,10,JJ WHEN YOU HAVE SO MANY CHIPS.DO YOUR GAME NO MONKEYBOYS GAME!!!


65,000 more chips... < again this stuff means NOTHING unless we know the size of the blinds.
Maybe a great call... maybe a terrible one. Who knows.
It's all about 'how many blinds you have' & how that relates to the other stack sizes at your table (< how many blinds they have).


ie. I had 40 billions chips. Donkey dumbsh1t went allin for 31 billion. Should I call with 10-10 ?
Who knows?
 
Michael Paler

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Your post sounds like you got into a three way with monkey boy and Mr 99, and a further guess, you lost to one or the other. Probably with a far better hand.

We poker players are often a hypocritical lot; we lament those moronic donkeys who dare go up against our big hand with garbage and win, then turn around and point out how great it is to have such weak players when the same thing happens and we win.

You know what the difference is between a top level pro and a donkey? Perception.

I've watched "top pros" make horrible plays, and I do mean horrible, yet when they win they are the hero, when they lose they are simply unlucky. A good example would be Vanessa Selbst. I have seen her make totally stew-pid plays, and yet "her luck just ran out", or "the curse of being aggressive finally caught up with her" is what's said when she loses. And when she wins, the compliments fly, and the boneheaded move is not only overlooked, but applauded.

Funny, aint it? Clap-clap.
 
Poker Orifice

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Your post sounds like you got into a three way with monkey boy and Mr 99, and a further guess, you lost to one or the other. Probably with a far better hand.

We poker players are often a hypocritical lot; we lament those moronic donkeys who dare go up against our big hand with garbage and win, then turn around and point out how great it is to have such weak players when the same thing happens and we win.

You know what the difference is between a top level pro and a donkey? Perception.

I've watched "top pros" make horrible plays, and I do mean horrible, yet when they win they are the hero, when they lose they are simply unlucky. A good example would be Vanessa Selbst. I have seen her make totally stew-pid plays, and yet "her luck just ran out", or "the curse of being aggressive finally caught up with her" is what's said when she loses. And when she wins, the compliments fly, and the boneheaded move is not only overlooked, but applauded.

Funny, aint it? Clap-clap.


Wrong!
 
2Pacavelli

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I prefer to fold and keep my good stack to make moves throughout the tournament , rather than risk facing a possible flip , but depending on the Monkeyboy and situation the call can be good with 99
 
akyurukov

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Well,unless we know the size of blinds and antes we cannot make a good reply to your comment man...8,000 can be 2 BB or can be 20 BB witch makes a ton of difference,but if theese 8,000 were like 9-13 bb's and you were in late position or in the blinds its definitely a call... but.. :D its one of 10000000000.... situations... next time be more specific and give more information about the hand..
 
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I think I would fold most of the time. If the shover is above the 15bb range, it's pretty unlikely he's doing it with a hand you'd be super comfortable getting it in with 99s against.

If he did it from steal position, I might be compelled to call at 15bb. But the fact it isn't for your tournament life and you won't be in too bad a shape if you're wrong makes calling more reasonable.
 
vinylspiros

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It really depends on who you are up against and like poker orifice said, stack sizes, blind levels ,antes, villains table image,etc etc.

The question is very vague without any more info.
 
ZekeRam

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I actually had this discussion with a buddy earlier this week. If my assumption is correct, the question you're asking is, "If things are going my way, I'm in a comfortable position in regards to my table and stack, should I risk a good chunk of it on, in most cases, a flip?"

The short answer is no.

The long answer, if you have a significant edge on the table, there's no need to call off an all-in if said all-in would make you go from comfortable to defensive. In your example, in most cases, you're looking at a flip, some cases behind against an overpair and the unlikely case of dominating a lower pair. It's not worth giving up your dominating position and losing the hand will likely lower your morale, unless you have some solid tilt control. There's also a ton of spots where folding AK pre against an all-in is the better choice.

However, and this is just in a general sense, there are exceptions:

1. If it's anytime in the mid to late part of the tournament, and you'll still have 50bb+ if you lose the hand. You still have a decent stack size to be aggressive.

2. If you're getting around 2:1 odds to call.

3. You have a solid read on villain, knowing he shoves light and in most cases, will be at least a 2:1 favorite on winning the hand.
 
BentleyBoy

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Gregstocke.....great question and some great comments that follow. Some competing, some asking for more info, others just making a stand and saying how they see it on the basis of what you provided.

The important aspect of all of this is the true fantastic essence of poker, and why making such decisions is so difficult.

Everyone is at a different level of playing poker and for each person there are different levels of consideration, from the basic, what is in front of you ( as per your example) to the super detailed, what stage, what are the blinds, kind of tourney, who are the players at your table and how have they been playing, and how have they played in relative positions and depending on who else is playing, what your style has been and what your table image is, and how well can you handle a loss, or a victory. Oh yea.....and then we consider the cards we have! Invariably, the cards we have may be our very last consideration, having considered everything else that we can evaluate from the tourney or table so far.

There is a whole heap of learning from this very straightforward question on a by straightforward situation....just going to show how detailed you need to be to make such a decision.

I have learned a lot from this thread, and trust you and everyone else will too.
 
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I would probably be folding the 99's there. If I have a competitive stack and a solid advantage I'm going to look to preserve both. While your Monkey-Boy competitor might be the right choice to flip with, I'm not sure 99 is the right hand.

With that said, I've not been given a good feel for MB's range, so it's really hard to say. If he was shoving often, I'd be more inclined to take the flip as I'm a 53-54% favorite against unsuited broadways, and even bigger against suited connectors like 8-7.

Aso not sure how close to the bubble we are. That would also have an impact on my decision making in a spot like this.
 
beger80

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My play is, of course, situation dependent, here are a few ways I'd play based on my additional info.
1.)Blinds >or=200-400 and he open shoves for 20+ BBs from early position, while I have a top 15%- Fold without much thought, so many better spots to collect on left in the game.
2.)Blinds ~300-600 and he open shoves from the HiJack- this would be the roughest spot and would greatly depend on the villains past showdowns/actions. If he is a super after I probably hate myself as I call but it's so easy to be ahead of his range, if he's only shown nutted hands I fold and hate myself while looking for better spots.
3.)Blinds <400-800 and he shoves from any position and we close the action- Call most. Our top 15% stack will take a hit If we lose but it isn't at risk and our 99 has 57% equity vs the top 25% of hands and is only a 60%/40% dog to the top 5% of hands. Usually calling with little regret.
 
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it doesnt work like this , first of all you should tell us about how big are the blinds , the range of villain etc.... if the play is +ev then you have to take it , you may choose to fold if the play is very marginally +ev in order to find a better spot later on but nevertheless you should never feel comfortable with a big stack , you are not supposed to stop accumulate chips when you are big because if you do then you will eventually become a short stack yourself , just evaluate the ev of the move and decide whats best for you.


An argument could be made if you was on the money and the next payout was a lifechanging to you , in this case you may ignore all +ev moves because your goal is to reach those money , if you are playing to reach final table or win you should never nit it up.
 
Aces2w1n

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Marginal hands like medium pp we want to be opening ... not calling...

We can justify a shove if we think hes a monkey but depends who is to act after us.. if we have someone who has over 10k we are risking our stack with a medium pair hence why we shove and isolate but the others could wakeup so considering on their style is a shove or fold... never calling
 
VGShaa

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I think I would have done would be to fold if the big blind level. If our stack more than 50 bb then it is possible to make a call.
 
rock0001

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For me is an insta call against a loose player. Even if you lose you still have 12.000 chips left. I might as well considering calling a tight player ( not a nit) with 99 because you can be ahead against any pair like eights or below and even if this players had a hand like ak or aq you are at least 52% ahead.
 
BogdanStark

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It was tommorow. Games 100euro free on NetBet poker. Final table 3 players, 3 paid place. I had second steck. 20euro for 3rd, 30euro for 2nd, and 50euro for 1st. A want to get prise place, so after it I relaxed and gave up the slack.
I am SB with JJ raise 10BB, BB = fold, BTN=re-raise 20BB, I=all-in. Finaly, he has KK and on board he get KKKK =)
 
Karozi615

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We can't answer your question boss, we don't know how many big blinds the player with 8,000 chips had. He could have 80 million chips and I couldn't care less, if its only 10 big blinds. If your playing to win the tournament then yes, taking marginal spots with a hand like 99 is pretty much OKAY - especially if your opponent is under 30 big blinds and the shove was a 3bet. If the tournament has antes the call is even more enticing. I've won a whole lot of tournaments and I didn't do it by folding 99 to 3bet shoves from 10-15 big blind stacks. Never understood how someone can think in such a way.

I guess people try to minimize risk so much so that they end up playing poorly.
 
BogdanStark

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I already wrote about this in response to a similar question. You must understand the importance of each tournament. The odds are always around 50\50. Even AA against 99 will be approximately equal chances in a situation where more than four people will go all – in.
 
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Sometimes it is possible and even necessary afford to take the risk. A lot depends on the size of the prize pool.
 
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if you are one of yje chip leaders with 8 k im guessing you are fairly deep, imo just play the waiting game instead of taking the gamble... there will be much better spots to come and 99 can be either dominated of a flip spot so why take the chance
 
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