2013 WSOP ME Satty - Advice

Beanfacekilla

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Hello CCers.

I have placed in top 10% or above in three MTTs to win a seat to the wsop ME satellite. I started with cheap seats, and worked my way through the steps.

Cheap seats ($3 invested)>Quarterfinal>Semifinal>Now ticket to WSOP ME satellite ($470 + $30 entry fee)

There are several sattys over the next 1 1/2 months.

There is one later today with 2 seats to the ME Gtd. They are every sunday.

May 5 has 4 seats Gtd.

And finally June 2 has 10 seats Gtd.

After June 2, there are a few more 4 seats GTd.

I wanted to play the satellite today, 2 seats Gtd., and I expect around 30-40 players (maybe less, maybe more, but in this neighborhood).

My question for all of you is this:

Should I be patient and wait until the most Gtd. seats?

I don't personally think the odds will be much better regardless of Gtd. amount of seats. I think the sattys with 4 seats and 10 seats will just have more players, thus making it a similar situation.

I really don't want to blow this opportunity. However, I am excited, and I want to play today. However, we are talking best case scenario 1 in 15 or 1 in 20 gets a seat to ME. That will be very tough.

The satty is 5,000 starting chips, 15 minute levels. Blinds start at 10/20. Late registration is for 130 mins.

Please help me to make the right call with this.

Thanks in advance.
 
duggs

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reg from the very start, probably go for the bigger ones, since people dont understand ICM and they will make more mistakes.

unless one has the biggest overlay and then go for that.

glglgl, set mine and stack someone early, dont open needlessly but make sure you steal pretty wide when you need to bump your equity. satties also make it ok to raise/fold pretty shallow since people will just never **** with you.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Thanks duggs for your input.

I have been playing Gtd. MTTs at bodog/bovada for a few years now. One thing I have noticed, is that they always make their guarantee (or prize pool goes overgtd. amount). I thin even if I wait until the satty with 10 seats gtd., there will be 310+ players.

I don't know if it is better to play a small field, or a large field. I am leaning towards playing against a smaller field.

And I have a fairly decent understanding of ICM, but probably not like you do.

In a nutshell, I think it doesn't matter how many seats are guaranteed, I will face similar odds to get a seat.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Oh yeah....

As for setmining - are you talking about being sneaky and limping or flatting with any PP, or just small PPs?
 
Poker Orifice

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Congrats!

Personally I would go with the larger field/most seats satellite (even w/o overlay as I'm assuming there won't be any anyways).
 
Beanfacekilla

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Congrats!

Personally I would go with the larger field/most seats satellite (even w/o overlay as I'm assuming there won't be any anyways).

Yeah I hear ya.

Unless I change my mind, I believe I will play the satty today. If I lose, I have plenty of time to repeat the process many times to achieve my ultimate goal of getting into the WSOP.

And I don't have to start with cheap seats. I could start with quarterfinals also.

Wish me luck please.:eek:
 
duggs

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problem with smaller fields is that to win you will most likely have to play short handed, which may be a bit uncomfortable for you depending on your experience. as for the bigger ones the bubble will be with more players, so more scope for big stacks to make awful calls and shorties to make horrific blind downs
 
Beanfacekilla

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problem with smaller fields is that to win you will most likely have to play short handed, which may be a bit uncomfortable for you depending on your experience. as for the bigger ones the bubble will be with more players, so more scope for big stacks to make awful calls and shorties to make horrific blind downs

I can play ok shorthanded. 3 players and HU is where it gets a little tricky for me.

I am gonna give it my best shot. I seem to do much better in recent months against smaller fields. Large fields are such a marathon.
 
Egon Towst

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Personally I would go with the larger field/most seats satellite
^this. I have won seats in online satties to live events many times. Although it ought to be the same mathematically, my experience is that it feels a heck of a lot easier to be in the top 10 of a big field than to win outright in a smaller one.
 
duggs

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whatever you choose just ship it already
 
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RCValenciano

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Sounds like the Bovada WSOP Satellite. Good luck man! I say just do it today, and if you lose theres those other opportunities again. But if you win congrats!!
 
Beanfacekilla

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Congrats!

Personally I would go with the larger field/most seats satellite (even w/o overlay as I'm assuming there won't be any anyways).

problem with smaller fields is that to win you will most likely have to play short handed, which may be a bit uncomfortable for you depending on your experience. as for the bigger ones the bubble will be with more players, so more scope for big stacks to make awful calls and shorties to make horrific blind downs

^this. I have won seats in online satties to live events many times. Although it ought to be the same mathematically, my experience is that it feels a heck of a lot easier to be in the top 10 of a big field than to win outright in a smaller one.

Three quotes here from well regarded members of CC.

I am going to listen to you guys. I have unregistered from the 2 seats Gtd.

I will wait for a better opportunity.

I was just so impatient to get it done today. But there are about 60 people in it already right now. There are only 2 seats.

93+ to unlock a third seat.

Thanks for the good advice. I think it is the right decision.
 
duggs

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if you think you can grind up more entries then yea go for it. but if this is likely your only shot then make it your best one imo.
 
Beanfacekilla

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if you think you can grind up more entries then yea go for it. but if this is likely your only shot then make it your best one imo.

Yeah. Thanks alot guys for the help.

It was the comment below that really made me change my mind. Very wise words from all.

^this. I have won seats in online satties to live events many times. Although it ought to be the same mathematically, my experience is that it feels a heck of a lot easier to be in the top 10 of a big field than to win outright in a smaller one.
 
Beanfacekilla

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On to the $10k Gtd. in 4 mins.:cool:
 
Beanfacekilla

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$10k Gtd. out in 488th. Field of 1451.

Run-bad.

Oh well.
 
Aleksei

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reg from the very start, probably go for the bigger ones, since people dont understand ICM and they will make more mistakes.

unless one has the biggest overlay and then go for that.

glglgl, set mine and stack someone early, dont open needlessly but make sure you steal pretty wide when you need to bump your equity. satties also make it ok to raise/fold pretty shallow since people will just never **** with you.
Oh yeah definitely. Most people in those things are just DYING for a chance at ME so they'll be playing super nitty and weaktight to try and sneak into the money (they will play the same way in the ME). Punish them for it, esp. as antes kick in and leave a ****ton of dead money lying around.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Oh yeah definitely. Most people in those things are just DYING for a chance at ME so they'll be playing super nitty and weaktight to try and sneak into the money (they will play the same way in the ME). Punish them for it, esp. as antes kick in and leave a ****ton of dead money lying around.

This is a good point Aleksei.

It makes me worry. Am I going to end up being one of these nits?

I sure hope not. However, winning a seat to the ME is very important to me. Since reading this post, I am starting to worry if that extreme desire is going to take me off my game.

"You have to be willing to die, in order to live at these MTTs sometimes." I heard Mike Matusow say something like this. I don't know if it is his quote or not.

I believe it is spot on.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Man I'll say one thing - I am running so bad right now I'm glad I didn't play the satty earlier.

I entered a $10k GTD. for $11, got blinded to death, no cards. Got it in with 8 BBs preflop with 10-10, snap called by A-Q, turns a Q

Entered a $3 $500 GTD., get dealt A-A first hand, flop a set (played it fast), and get sucked out by 8-3 suited who makes a flush on river.

Entered a $15 $3k Gtd., did not run good there either. Couple of coolers, and then got busted with A-Ks, by a fishy player, whom I could not put on a hand.

I love it.:D
 
Aleksei

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Man I'll say one thing - I am running so bad right now I'm glad I didn't play the satty earlier.

I entered a $10k GTD. for $11, got blinded to death, no cards. Got it in with 8 BBs preflop with 10-10, snap called by A-Q, turns a Q

Entered a $3 $500 GTD., get dealt A-A first hand, flop a set (played it fast), and get sucked out by 8-3 suited who makes a flush on river.

Entered a $15 $3k Gtd., did not run good there either. Couple of coolers, and then got busted with A-Ks, by a fishy player, whom I could not put on a hand.

I love it.:D
Yeah, being an MTT player means living with the fact that no matter how solid you play you will only win when the poker gods reward you with obscene amounts of rungood. The big difference between you and a crappy player is that you will need less and thus will get it more often. ;)
 
Beanfacekilla

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Yeah, being an MTT player means living with the fact that no matter how solid you play you will only win when the poker gods reward you with obscene amounts of rungood. The big difference between you and a crappy player is that you will need less and thus will get it more often. ;)

The reason I have taken a break from live, and been playing online so much is because I was running bad, and online is cheap.

I was running good online for a while. I built up a nice chunk of change. Now even online I am on a downswing.

I am losing all flips, most 60/40s, I even got it in pre in a $500 GTD. with Q-Q vs 10-10, and he flops a set. I had him covered, but I was crippled after. I want calls from 10-10 preflop. Just so unlucky lately.

I can deal with it for a little while, but come on dude.

I am going back to live poker. I will play the satty on June 2. If I run bad live, I think I will just take a break period - from all poker.

This run-bad is really getting old.
 
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The reason I have taken a break from live, and been playing online so much is because I was running bad, and online is cheap.

I was running good online for a while. I built up a nice chunk of change. Now even online I am on a downswing.

I am losing all flips, most 60/40s, I even got it in pre in a $500 GTD. with Q-Q vs 10-10, and he flops a set. I had him covered, but I was crippled after. I want calls from 10-10 preflop. Just so unlucky lately.

I can deal with it for a little while, but come on dude.

I am going back to live poker. I will play the satty on June 2. If I run bad live, I think I will just take a break period - from all poker.

This run-bad is really getting old.

heh yeah i know what your saying, i once played a 2$ tourney I think, when I just started playing for money, finished 6th after having 2 hands AA in a row and loosing to KK and KQs in a row(was chipleader before) I got some money in that tourney but dumped of all my 100$ bankroll in silly tourneys I don't even know why o_O now looking back at that, I think my game has improved, and judging that you say that it's just a bad run - so then it is just a bad run.. so don't think u should take a break because of this..
 
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I have a ticket also and was wondering the same thing. It takes nearly 32 buy ins per ME seat so if i can get in one that has fewer it would be nice. Like you said though they usually get enough to cover. Right now I am leaning toward the 4 seat guarantee on May 5th. Win and get in or have enough time to try again. Would be nice to know from someone who played in these last year. 1 seat guarantee with 40 players would get 2nd place near 4k so 1-20 chance of nice win. Well two weeks of the Sunday 2 seat guarantee, guess I will keep an eye on those and go from there.
 
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cander128

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2 seat guarantee on 4/21 62 players at start. Start with 5k chips late reg avail for 130 min.
15 min mark 82 players, 2 ME entries and $8540 for third place who had about 6800 chips at the time.
30 min mark 95 players 2 entries $14650 for 3rd who had about 10,100 chips.
First break 104 entries 3 entries $3880 for fourth who had about 12k chips.
End of late reg, 113 players 3 entries 4th $8110 who had about 20k chips.
Of the 4 players that cashed 2 started the tourney one entered within 15 min of start and one entered within 30 min of start.
 
Beanfacekilla

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2 seat guarantee on 4/21 62 players at start. Start with 5k chips late reg avail for 130 min.
15 min mark 82 players, 2 ME entries and $8540 for third place who had about 6800 chips at the time.
30 min mark 95 players 2 entries $14650 for 3rd who had about 10,100 chips.
First break 104 entries 3 entries $3880 for fourth who had about 12k chips.
End of late reg, 113 players 3 entries 4th $8110 who had about 20k chips.
Of the 4 players that cashed 2 started the tourney one entered within 15 min of start and one entered within 30 min of start.


Well thanks for that... :)
 
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