100 BI too little or too much?

Trying to map out a plan for when to move up/down in hyper turbo HU stakes. I know variance can be huge in these and even playing $3.50 games I managed to run a few hundred dollars below ev over ~1000 games, I've seen graphs with much worse runbad as well.

My plan: Going to start at $3.50 level, to slow building from $1.50 level and palyers are still bad. Also at $1.50 level you need a 52.08% WR to break even, at $3.50 you only need 51.47%, no brainer to play $3.50. Also I play 2 tables generally so swings can be quite bad.

Current pokerstars balance $330ish

$7 at $700, move down at $560

$15 at $1500, move down at $1200

$30 at $3000, move down at $2400

$60 at $6000, move down at $4800

$100 at $10000, move down at $8000

Thoughts? Am I being too nitty/loose with BRM? Also looking at it 20BI seems nothing to lose to move back down again, I'm down more than 20BI at $3.50 level where players are bad, and thats just due to variance, I should be up about 40 BI, so a 65 BI downswing against bad players.

You're probably fine with 100 at the 3s, but as you move up I'd want more. Mix stakes when you're moving up

When I do move up though my drop back down leaves me well enough rolled for the earlier level. So when I move up to $100's I can run terrible lose 2k and still have a 53 BI cushion for $60's. Also if I mix stakes I won't really know how I'm doing at new stakes. Also what would your suggestion be then if I reach $10000. Would it be multitable 60's and 100's until I hit $8000 or if I hit $12,000 move on to eclusively 100's?

if you want to do some research, find some of the most winning players at each stake, then refine the search and see just how much variance is common for those players. What i'm looking for is the biggest swings for each player.

What i usually do after that is i kind of make an assumption about my skill level and how much variance i expect. So if a heap of the $3.50 players are having maximum 50-60 buyin downswings then i might be happy with 60-70 buyins. So for the 3.50's i'll start out with like 200 or whatever figure i'm happy with.

So now i have that amount, what i'll so is also do research in the above levels you mention. So for the $7's i'd figure the maximum swings might start reaching 100 buyins, so lets allow 700 for those games.(this is all hypothetical and i'm not saying 100 is normal for that level, it's likely way way higher.)

So to move up i want to have the original 200 for the $3.50 games, plus the 700 for the $7 games. So $900 total.

I'll do this for every level i plan to play. That's the bankroll system i used to work from, it gives you a little more cushion i think if you are either living from your roll or don't have much in the way of backup funds.

I also have a more aggressive bankroll spreadsheet if you want to take a look, which is similar to the bankroll system you have above. It's designed from betting systems people use in sports betting. It's based from ROI% and ITM%. PM me if you want to take a look.

Yea I'll PM for a look at that spreadsheet. Although if it requires me knowing my ROI I don't know that yet, I'll need at least another 4000 games for that.

I have another 700 or so profit from poker that I can just deposit on ps so even if I bust this roll I can just start again (although I'd rasther not as it defeats purpose of challenge of building if I just go busto), it's not like I need this money as it's all profit anyway.

How muh would your BR stratergy lose before you move down a limit. Say I start on $330, move up at $900, what point would I move back down again?

BlueNowhere said:

Yea I'll PM for a look at that spreadsheet. Although if it requires me knowing my ROI I don't know that yet, I'll need at least another 4000 games for that.

I have another 700 or so profit from poker that I can just deposit on ps so even if I bust this roll I can just start again (although I'd rasther not as it defeats purpose of challenge of building if I just go busto), it's not like I need this money as it's all profit anyway.

How muh would your BR stratergy lose before you move down a limit. Say I start on $330, move up at $900, what point would I move back down again?

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Whenever you hit the $330 mark again. So it leaves you with a true 100 BB to work with, wihtout fear of going busto. It also lets you survive a possible 50 buyin downswing without having to move back down.

I'm just presenting you with another alternative or idea, at the end of the day do whatever you are comfortable with.

Yeah the Spreadsheet runs from ROI. You have played 1000 games correct? we can get a rough guestimate of decent ROI's from the top players at the stakes, i'm guessing it wouldn't be much over 2-3% over decent samples, but that's just a guess.

I'll send you another program "ROI simulator" which after even 1000 games will give you a starting point as to what your ROI might be.

Yea I see what you mean. My thinking with mine was I could shot take with 20BI and avoid taking 100BI downswing just because I'm not good enough to move up levels, I could move up limits without ever really putting a large portion of my BR at serious risk due to lack of skill.

I think close to 10% for a brilliant player would be achievable. Some of the better players at 100's have over 3%. I think at $3.50 I'd be looking at maxing out at about 6% before I moved up.

Yeah but while you are avoiding 100 buyin downswings, you could also be avoiding 100 buyin upswings. Like, you drop 20 buyins, move down then go on a 100 buyin heater, you have just lost a lot of money. I guess it works both ways.

Heh, my guess was way off with the ROI, this thread is really tempting me to load some HU ST games on stars. What is the structure like where you play? start out at 10 BB shove/fold?

What evidence do you have that your downswing is due to variance? The fact that winning players can sometimes run badly enough to drop over 100 buyins doesn't mean that's what happened to you.

WiZZiM said:

Yeah but while you are avoiding 100 buyin downswings, you could also be avoiding 100 buyin upswings. Like, you drop 20 buyins, move down then go on a 100 buyin heater, you have just lost a lot of money. I guess it works both ways.

Heh, my guess was way off with the ROI, this thread is really tempting me to load some HU ST games on stars. What is the structure like where you play? start out at 10 BB shove/fold?

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I play on stars. 25BB to start with , 3 min levels, games usually over in less than 5. I do think they offer the best hourly out of games on stars simply because of the amount of volume you can put in. Also one bad beat doesn't destroy hours of work which is nice when I've played mostly MTT till I started these. You can actually get some decent play in with the blind levels and make adjustments before it turns to shove/fold so your edge is much bigger than if it was shove/fold.

Arjonius said:

What evidence do you have that your downswing is due to variance? The fact that winning players can sometimes run badly enough to drop over 100 buyins doesn't mean that's what happened to you.

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Pokertracker. I'd post graph but I had to reset my computer over holidays. Can't even analyse my game whilst I'm on self exclusion

I think this is a purely roi based question, with 1k games you should have a good idea of roi.....what format are these ie reg speed, turbo, sup turbo, etc?
The format will dictate sustainable rois. For example if these are sup turbos and you have a 35% roi that would not be sustainable.
Can you move down in stakes if you run bad? If you cant move down, I think you need more bis.
Good luck at the tables,

t

I'm looking at that BRM now Wizzim and I'm not quite getting it:



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That suggest with $330 I should be playing $7 games? I can only hit a downsing of 28 games though.

Also I know next to nothing about computers. How do I deal with a ZIP file?

BlueNowhere said:

That suggest with $330 I should be playing $7 games? I can only hit a downsing of 28 games though.

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yep, like i mentioned in the email it's quite an aggressive bankroll system. it's based on a sports betting system, but it's great if you want to build a bankroll quickly.

So after you play around 20-30 of the $7 games you just input your new bankroll and see if you are still able to play the $7 games.

Just make sure you make your ROI and ITM % realistic and give yourself a bit of a buffer with it, so make your ROI lower than what you would expect and same with the ITM %.

Also, if you don't feel comfortable with playing the $7's on a smaller roll, just stick with the $3.50's, it's really just a guide, you don't have to follow it religiously.

Like i mentioned already, this is based on a sports betting system, so there is probably more chance that you will go busto than most systems, but the upside is that you can build a roll really quickly while having a guide as to when to move down.

BlueNowhere said:

Also I know next to nothing about computers. How do I deal with a ZIP file?

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download a program like "WinZip" or "7-Zip" right click the file, open it, and extract the files to a location on your computer.

Ah I already have winzip (maybe confusing it with another program I'll have to check tomorrow) I think, I'll do it tomorrow as I need to go bed soon.

Well I gave myself a 3.7% ROI which I think is fairly realistic and being HU ITM can be worked out from ROI. I think I can get about 7% ROI so I've done about half that which is quite generous. I think I'd feel abit under-rolled playing $7's but I'll probably shot take abit whilst I'm at the lower level. I'll try and combine a good BRM with all info I have now so when exclusion expires I have a plan on what is happening.

IMO, choosing your level of play isn't just about how many buyins you have. As a general principle, you should follow reasonable BRM guidelines, of course. But not blindly.

For instance, if you're looking to take one or two shots at the next higher level to get a feel for the play, you don't require 20 or 30 buyins at that higher level. All you need is to be able to spare one or two buyins, plus enough self-discipline not to move up until you have enough of a roll even if you happen to win.

And what about the multi-tabling factor? Maybe it's more profitable to play 2x $3.50 tables than half as many at $7.

Well when I move up I intend to continue multitabling or playing one lower BI and one higher BI at same time. I think having aims is best because it means you know where your at and giving targets keeps you motivated. If nI don't have set in stones amount I start shot taking too much as I can't resist a bigger BI.

Hi WiZZiM

can youd send me a ROI simulator and link to that bankroll spreadsheet
Thanks in advance

Drogo

you can google seach the roi simulator. and i dont have the bankroll spreadsheet anymore, i quit playing and got rid of all my gadgets/tools. i could get them from a friend, but realistically you havent really provided anything for this forum so i dont really want too. come and see me when you are solidly contributing to this forum