Would you fold QT OTB ?

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RickAversion

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Hero gets QT on the button.
Limps to hero. Hero folds.
Mistake?
This is where you either raise or fold, right?
 
TheBigFinn

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Need more information. Assuming one caller; If the stacks are big, I'd raise. If they are short I'd fold. 20bbs makes calling interesting.
 
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Hero gets QT on the button.
Limps to hero. Hero folds.
Mistake?
This is where you either raise or fold, right?
Yes, you should definitely raise or fold here. Which course of action you take depends on several factors, including stack sizes, how often believe the blinds will fold to your raise, and how "sticky" the blinds are likely to be postflop.

-HooDooKoo
 
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CubsnBearz

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You know, with a hand like that on the button, I rarely see myself folding to limps. Percentage wise I'd say you should raise here more often than you would fold. You have position on a bunch of limpers, and unless the blinds re-raise you, you're golden.
 
teepack

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Depends on the situation, but I would be tempted just to limp along and hope to see a flop if it's a cash game. In a tourney, if you are close to the bubble, a shove would not be a terrible play, but you still have to worry about the SB and BB.
 
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Yeah i wouldnt be limping in a situation like that too much. Im more of a tourney/SnG player and the blinds would be my deciding factor.
I'd err on the side of a shove with less than 15BB.
 
Mase31683

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Depends on so many factors. What stacks people have, what their preflop limping ranges include, what hands they'll pay off too much with, there's more but I don't wanna type 35 things.

Basically need more info. If a raise will not fold people out, then I'm happy to limp along and play postflop. Extrapolate from there, but different villain tendencies will change my actions accordingly here.
 
horizon12

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If stack less 12bb easy shove, if in blinds villain tight min raise, if lag u can fold, but raise not mistake..
 
Salvete777

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I need more information about situation to tell something about my move.
At least Stack sizes, blind sizes, QTs/ QT'o?
 
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hffjd2000

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I believe the safest is simply to fold.
 
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nygmen2007

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It would depend on level if it is a tournament, or how much of a raise it is in a cash game. Have to know what you want to accomplish. Many factors go into this, but right off the bat just as an answer I would say no, I would never fold this hand on the button.
 
Four Dogs

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Hero gets QT on the button.
Limps to hero. Hero folds.
Mistake?
This is where you either raise or fold, right?
Right. No, wrong! Raise. You will win the hand without a showdown more than 50% of the time. You will win with a CB on the flop 50% of that. You win the hand 75% without even looking at your cards. QT is icing on the cake.
 
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RickAversion

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Right. No, wrong! Raise. You will win the hand without a showdown more than 50% of the time. You will win with a CB on the flop 50% of that. You win the hand 75% without even looking at your cards. QT is icing on the cake.

You mean, as long as I raise enough, there's a 50% chance of everyone folding? Ok, varies by table, but yea, that's one way to win. All folds to my raise.

The other case is where no one hits the flop. C-bet might win. Another way to win.

Only problem is is someone's got PP and not going to let them go.
 
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HooDooKoo

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You mean, as long as I raise enough, there's a 50% chance of everyone folding? Ok, varies by table, but yea, that's one way to win. All folds to my raise.

The other case is where no one hits the flop. C-bet might win. Another way to win.

Only problem is is someone's got PP and not going to let them go.

You want to be playing with people that have a PP and won't let them go.

Also, at some point, it would be beneficial to you if you realize that poker is gambling. There are no guarantees, and you can lose money playing. If you wait to commit chips until you're more than a 60% favorite, you have no chance of being profitable in the long run. Those situations don't come up enough, and you don't get paid off to often when they do.

You need to learn to push much smaller edges than you're currently comfortable pushing, or a combination of suckouts and blinding away will bury you.

Good luck.

-HooDooKoo
 
Four Dogs

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You mean, as long as I raise enough, there's a 50% chance of everyone folding? Ok, varies by table, but yea, that's one way to win. All folds to my raise.

The other case is where no one hits the flop. C-bet might win. Another way to win.

Only problem is is someone's got PP and not going to let them go.
Sorry, I meant to say that you will win without seeing a flop 50% of the time not showdown.

It's not really about raising big enough, actually, the bigger you raise the more often you'll have to win to break even on the steals. Really, Just about any raise will do but I like to open for about 3.5x in cash games and as little as 2x in a tournament.

Most of the time neither blind is going to have a hand worth calling a raise with OOP, but some people just love to see flops, so they call, and then they fold. It doesn't matter what you have, but if you go to the well too often eventually even the bad players will catch on and start playing back at you, so you need to regulate it somehow. Choosing hands to steal with that flop well seems like the obvious choice. About 1/2 the time you see a flop you will get called and it's nice to occasionally have a hand that you can stick around with. For this purpose QT is a solid hand.
 
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Let's say you're on the button.

You raise about 7BB's to get only 1 caller. Head's up.
If villain does not have pocket pair, but just 2 overcards,
The odds of V hitting the flop is 1/3 = 33%
The odds of V missing the flop is 2/3 = 67%
So, most of the time, V has missed and you want to C-bet to take the pot.

What if you get 2 callers to your PF raise?
Odds of BOTH MISSING the flop is 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9 = 45%
Odds of ONE of them hitting the flop is (1/3 * 2/3) + (2/3 * 1/3) = 2/9 + 2/9 = 4/9 = 45%
Odds of BOTH of them HITTING the flop is 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 = 10%
So, with 2 callers, odds are that someone has paired the board.
Basically, coin flip is someone hit the board.
C-bet will not be as effective, unless you have TP, etc.

Is this good so far?

Next let's talk about C-bet size.

V's odds of hitting TP after the missed flop are 6 outs for 12% pot equity in the next card.. You want to bet enough that villain overpaid to see the next card, if he calls.

If I bet 25% of pot, he is getting 5:1 or 17% pot odds.
If I bet 50% of pot, he is getting 3:1 or 25% pot odds.
If I bet 100% of pot, he is getting 2:1 or 33% pot odds.

So, I only really need to C-bet 25% to 50% of the pot for V to either fold, or make a bad call.

If we are short stacked, and he might go all in, then I will consider the next TWO cards. This gives V 24% pot equity. In this case, only betting 50% of pot makes it a coin flip. So, I want to bet more than 50%, maybe more like 75% to 100% of pot, s V is overpaying.

Is this good so far?
 
Four Dogs

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Okay, let's unpack this.
Let's say you're on the button.

You raise about 7BB's to get only 1 caller. Head's up.
If villain does not have pocket pair, but just 2 overcards,
The odds of V hitting the flop is 1/3 = 33%
The odds of V missing the flop is 2/3 = 67%
So, most of the time, V has missed and you want to C-bet to take the pot.
7BB is a huge raise and totally unnecessary as well as counterproductive. You might succeed in stealing the blinds more often but your success rate will have to be too great to make up for the losses.

Let's say with a normal size raise like 3x you get through both blinds 50% of the time and win 1.5bb's and get called the other 50% and lose 3bb's for a combined EV of -1.5bb's or -.75bb/hand. Look at that, raising only 3x is losing me money. Maybe if I raise more I'll get more folds. Let's try raising to 7x. Now you're getting through 55%, great, but you're risking 2.33 as much for only a 5% increase in fold equity and you're EV drops to -2.32bb's/hand. (BTW, I'm not just making these numbers up, they come right out of my database unfiltered for active player).

So you see the value in late position raises doesn't come from stealing the blinds but rather from getting called in position and outplaying you're opponent post flop either by continuation betting of value betting.

Your numbers on the likelihood of V. hitting or missing the flop are about right but your odds of taking it down with a CB don't correlate exactly as many bottom and middle pairs will fold to overcards and many draws will call. That's why again, the CB success rate is only about 53% but that slight advantage along with the overlay makes all the difference in the world.

What if you get 2 callers to your PF raise?
Odds of BOTH MISSING the flop is 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9 = 45%
Odds of ONE of them hitting the flop is (1/3 * 2/3) + (2/3 * 1/3) = 2/9 + 2/9 = 4/9 = 45%
Odds of BOTH of them HITTING the flop is 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 = 10%
So, with 2 callers, odds are that someone has paired the board.
Basically, coin flip is someone hit the board.
C-bet will not be as effective, unless you have TP, etc.

Is this good so far?
This is getting a little more involved than I had intended. I should have just started a thread on Button steals. Still might.

So both blinds call and you go to the flop 3 ways. You're equity as a percentage of the pot now decreases considerable but the same principles as above apply. You're obout 7% less likely to win the pot with a CBet but the additional overlay. That said you need to start being cautious about what boards you decide to continue on. Basically the more coordinated the flop is the less likely you should be to continue without a battle hand. The best flops to CBet are unconnected monotone or rainbow, the worst are 2 tone connected. An Ace on the flop is usually a good thing but with both blinds calling I might consider delaying or shutting it down all together. That's not based on data just my opinion.

Next let's talk about C-bet size.

V's odds of hitting TP after the missed flop are 6 outs for 12% pot equity in the next card.. You want to bet enough that villain overpaid to see the next card, if he calls.

If I bet 25% of pot, he is getting 5:1 or 17% pot odds.
If I bet 50% of pot, he is getting 3:1 or 25% pot odds.
If I bet 100% of pot, he is getting 2:1 or 33% pot odds.

So, I only really need to C-bet 25% to 50% of the pot for V to either fold, or make a bad call.
Hmm, you seem to be putting him on a range of overcards to the board. I see you mentioned that above but where did that assumption come from? So far all he's done is call and check the flop. His range hasn't been further defined. As far as you're concerned he still has 2 almost random cards. (he probably didn't call with 7-2o). You really can't put him on a range at this point so bet sizing is pretty much a guessing game.

At this point your cards don't matter much either. Sure it's nice to know what you have so you can sharpen things up a bit but for the most part you're just hoping to induce a folding error. My CBets are usually around 1/2 pot but lately (at $1/$2, $2/$5 live) it seems I've been seeing just as many folds to 1/4-1/3 pot sized bets as 1/2 - 2/3. Your average recreational player doesn't base their decision to call or fold on the sized of the bet but rather on how pretty their cards are. They're not thinking about pot odds or implied odds, they're thinking, "me have pair" "Me have flush draw" "Me have gutshot" So my advice is to just bet the least amount you can get away with without looking like a 90lb weakling waiting to get sand kicked in his face.

If we are short stacked, and he might go all in, then I will consider the next TWO cards. This gives V 24% pot equity. In this case, only betting 50% of pot makes it a coin flip. So, I want to bet more than 50%, maybe more like 75% to 100% of pot, s V is overpaying.

Is this good so far?
Ah, so now we're getting into SPR, a subject I'm just now starting to take seriously. So the larger the effective stack sizes are in relation to the pot the lighter both you and V. should be calling down with and the less likely you should be to Cbet without a value hand. If the pot is $20 bucks and V. only has $10 behind he's never going away with any pair or draw, the size of the bet won't matter. But in that case you shouldn't have walked down this road to begin with. The smaller the stacks the less leverage you have and the less ability to outplay you're opponents post flop. The magic behind blind steals comes from the power of position which is severely hobbled when effective stacks are small. So you can see how important it is to be aware of the stack sizes around you, and also how much value you're losing by not topping off when you drop below the max.

Time to hit the Gym. GL
 
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scorpion1367

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You want to be playing with people that have a PP and won't let them go.

Also, at some point, it would be beneficial to you if you realize that poker is gambling. There are no guarantees, and you can lose money playing. If you wait to commit chips until you're more than a 60% favorite, you have no chance of being profitable in the long run. Those situations don't come up enough, and you don't get paid off to often when they do.

You need to learn to push much smaller edges than you're currently comfortable pushing, or a combination of suckouts and blinding away will bury you.

Good luck.

-HooDooKoo
Hit the nail right on the head ......scorp:eating:
 
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4dogs,
At my live cash 1/2NL table, you will get 9 callers on a $6 PF raise. The threshhold for the fold line is about $15. Even $10, lots of calls, at least 4.
 
Four Dogs

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4dogs,
At my live cash 1/2NL table, you will get 9 callers on a $6 PF raise. The threshhold for the fold line is about $15. Even $10, lots of calls, at least 4.
No you won't because we're talking only about blind steals from the button which implies that you're opening the pot. The most you can get is two calls.
 
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RickAversion

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I'm talking in general. Not OTB. At my table, 3xBB raise will get 1/2 the table calling. Even if done from OTB. All limpers will call a $6 raise.
 
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Right. No, wrong! Raise. You will win the hand without a showdown more than 50% of the time. You will win with a CB on the flop 50% of that. You win the hand 75% without even looking at your cards. QT is icing on the cake.

This is what I was thinking as well. More information on the opponent would help, but this would probably be my choice.
 
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