Originally Posted by Dan Lucas
I am hoping to give and get some insight on why we make the decisions we do in specific cases during on-line tournaments.
My first case is this:
It was the CC Friday freeroll. Payout is 45th place qnd we are at 107 players. Blinds are 75/150 and due to go up to 100/200 in 2 minutes. I have 1290 chips. I am utg+2 and get dealt K J offsuit. I figure with my stack, this hand is pretty decent and everyone at the table is playing solid. I don't think I have enough fold equity with blinds increasing shortly, So I go all-in. I get folders to the big blind, who has 2700 chips. He shows pocket 6's.
I lost hand in case you are interested, board bricked out.
If I was Big blind, I probably would have folded the 6's. If I lose hand, I still have 18 bb. If I lose, I am down to 9. For me, I think I would have waited for a better spot, especially since I am still in a good position to make a deep run.
What plays would you have made in both my situation and big blind, and why? Remember, this is on-line so you probably have 30 seconds. I believe that in this case, the decision making process is more important than the result.
1. To answer the main question of this thread: because we are humans and not bots !
2. Now, I will do the math of your situation:
You shove for 1290.
I suppose the 2700 of your opponent are net amount, and do not include the BB he just placed for this hand.
So, the pot after your allin is: 1290 + 75 + 150 = 1515.
He already put BB for 150, so the "price" to call is: 1290 - 150 = 1140.
He needs to "invest" 1140 for a "return" of 1515.
= 1140 / (1140 + 1515) = 1140 / 2655 = 42.94% ~= 43%.
66 need just 43% chance to win to justify call.
66 is big favourite against weak A, weak K, weak Q, etc. (like A-2 to A-6).
66 is slight favourite at 57-43 against any higher non-paired off-suit cards.
66 is mediocre favourite at 53-47 against any higher non-paiered suited cards.
66 is big favourite against 4 pairs (82-18) and is big underdog against 8 pairs (18-82). The distribution is 33/67. If you use it to weight the average EV of pair-versus-pair - it is approximately 40/60.
Given the facts, the call is +EV and thus justified. The small deficiency in pair-to-pair allin is largely off-set by the big +EV against the non-paired hands.
Also, you are small stack and your opponent only risks 40% of his stack, while you risk elimination.
So, he can afford the call. And also, he is not affraid of your hand, because given your stack, you would push with anything playable...