I hope this comes off as constructive criticism. I warn you, this is long and there's a fair amount of math. You did not play this hand well. I don't want to just say that and not back it up. Also, thinking about the hand in the following way could help you avoid stacking off like this in the future.
There are definite problems with the pre-flop play and the initial flop bet. But, I think we can ignore those issues for the time being. Those errors are cheap compared to the response to being raised on the flop. We'll focus on the most expensive mistake first. I am also going to ignore the SB and BB, assume they folded out of turn before you acted. When they are actually in the hand, it makes your profit from shoving less because there is a greater chance you're up against a slow-played better hand,
Since we bet $2 into $48, this raise does not necessarily signify great strength. It is also fairly small (less than half pot). Depending on your opponent, that could be threatening or meaningless. Some good players try and get you pot-stuck with great hands. You haven't mentioned any reads to that effect, so we'll assume that this player is betting all hands that are a pair of 10s or better. Those hands are: [TT-AA, AK, KQ, KJ, K9, QT, and J9]. There are 70 combinations of these hands. This is a pretty liberal and aggressive check-raising range on this board, I expect most players to bet fewer hands than this. But, the more hands this player will bet, the better the numbers are for you. I am trying to give your play the best benefit of the doubt. We'll look at a more in-line raising range after this.
Given that he would raise any of those hands, but probably only continue with the straight, sets, and two-pair (maybe 20% of the time), he will be folding 45 of the 70 hands he bets to your shove. That means, 64.29% of the time, you win the current pot ($76). We're also going to ignore the rake, because that further hurts your profits. You make $48.86 when he folds. The problem is, when he calls, you only have 33.78%
equity in the hand. That means, you expect to get $162.12 from the $480 pot. But, it costs you $223 to shove. You lose $60.88 when you get all-in. Your net “profit” from shoving here is
-$12.02.
And, that is in the best of all worlds. You're getting called by two-pair hands 12% of the time (less than 20% because two pair hands are not a huge part of his range), the blinds never slow-played a set or straight, and he was betting a lot of hands that he had to fold to your shove.
Clearly, getting all-in on the flop is a bad idea. This does
not mean that I recommend a fold. As I was driving, it occurred to me that this is a situation where I am perfectly happy putting a lot of money in, against an aggressive player, as long as they are the one doing all the betting. I double checked my numbers when I got home, and the player doesn't even need to be massively aggressive to make calling once or even twice bad. Against someone betting this wide, you have 67.95% equity against their betting range. You could call this bet with a positive expectation. I would even call another bet on the turn or bet the river if he checked the turn and the river. I would be in a tough spot if he bet turn and shoved the river, especially on the board as it came out. I just don't think he's shoving worse unless he's super-aggressive. Still, calling here should show a profit. Shoving will only fold worse hands.
Against a tighter check-raising range on the flop, remove TT and reduce the number of one-pair combinations, your shove loses almost
$30 in value. But calling still has a 57% expectation. So again, calling a couple streets here makes sense.
I have to call an end to this right now. I have been up for over 24 hours and am unable to think clearly anymore. One last thing, this is not a semi-bluff. A semi-bluff is when your bet can fold out better hands (your bet never folds better here) and, if you're called, you have outs to make the best hand (you have almost no equity when called by a better hand here). This is a suicide-bluff: you fold everything you beat, keep all the hands crushing you, and you have a snowball's chance in hell of improving against the hands that call you. You
never want AK to fold here. You have 95.88% equity against that hand. You want AK to put as much money as possible into the pot.
If this doesn't make sense, I can explain my numbers, and how I arrived at them, a bit more tomorrow. Right now, I need sleep. Sorry about any typos or mistakes, in advance.
