When our opponent is drawing, do we want them to fold or to call?

D

darpblog

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 30, 2018
Total posts
128
Chips
0
Let's say we are against a reg player, a reg from the good variety, and we can narrow their range to a flush draw. Also for sake of argument, our opponent is sure we don't have air, and somehow they know we are not blocking them, their 9 outs live in the turn.

How much do we want to bet? If we bet more than 1/3 of the pot our opponent has bad pot odds, so they shouldn't be calling, is this what we want? for them to fold? should we bet more anyway, giving them the chance to make a mistake, even though is unlikely they pay?

Now, I know that giving them good pot odds is a bad play, but what about giving them just the right price? Is this also a bad play? By giving them just the right price our opponent has to pay, and we win the pot most of the time, so most of the time we get more value that otherwise we wouldnt?
Is this faulty reasoning? Should we just be happy to take the pot in the turn?
 
eberetta1

eberetta1

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Aug 11, 2007
Total posts
2,218
Awards
7
US
Chips
162
I never want to go to showdown, so I want my opponent to fold. When I have the nuts, then I bet lower, like the 1/3rd pot to not scare my opponent into folding.
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

WhereDidMyEVGo

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 20, 2014
Total posts
547
Chips
0
You want your opponent to make a mistake. You want them to call if it's a mistake to do so and you want them to fold if it's a mistake to do so. In your scenario the only way for them to make a mistake is if you bet enough to deny them the odds to call and they call anyway, so that is what you want to do.
 
A

AlexTheOwl

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 22, 2017
Total posts
860
Chips
0
You want your opponent to make a mistake. You want them to call if it's a mistake to do so and you want them to fold if it's a mistake to do so. In your scenario the only way for them to make a mistake is if you bet enough to deny them the odds to call and they call anyway, so that is what you want to do.

You seem to be saying you should bet big enough that it would be a mistake for your opponent to call.


But if you have a pair or better, you are ahead of someone who is on a draw (unless they have a combo draw). It would be a mistake to make a bet so large that your opponent folds, if they would have called a smaller bet.


The correct play, if you were somehow certain that your opponent has a simple draw and you know the largest bet he will call, would be to make the largest bet your opponent will call.
Depending on the size of that bet, it may be a bet that your opponent is correct to call.


The money already in the pot in poker often means that both the hero's actions and the villain's actions can be correct. Sometimes no one is making a mistake. This does not contradict Sklansky's Fundamental Theorem of Poker.
 
hugh blair

hugh blair

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Apr 8, 2017
Total posts
11,173
Awards
8
Chips
30
Push all your chips in and hope they call with their flush draw ect do not give free or cheap cards quarter of the time this will backfire though so depends on chipstack on tourney and also ICM adjust play and play more passively.
 
6

619Leafs

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Jan 30, 2017
Total posts
1,790
Awards
1
Chips
4
Let's say we are against a reg player, a reg from the good variety, and we can narrow their range to a flush draw. Also for sake of argument, our opponent is sure we don't have air, and somehow they know we are not blocking them, their 9 outs live in the turn.

How much do we want to bet? If we bet more than 1/3 of the pot our opponent has bad pot odds, so they shouldn't be calling, is this what we want? for them to fold? should we bet more anyway, giving them the chance to make a mistake, even though is unlikely they pay?

Now, I know that giving them good pot odds is a bad play, but what about giving them just the right price? Is this also a bad play? By giving them just the right price our opponent has to pay, and we win the pot most of the time, so most of the time we get more value that otherwise we wouldnt?
Is this faulty reasoning? Should we just be happy to take the pot in the turn?

In my opinion I would my opponent to fold as much times as possible especially on a draw, I have seen many times after the flop that there are opponent that need two runners and they get lucky.
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

WhereDidMyEVGo

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 20, 2014
Total posts
547
Chips
0
You seem to be saying you should bet big enough that it would be a mistake for your opponent to call.


But if you have a pair or better, you are ahead of someone who is on a draw (unless they have a combo draw). It would be a mistake to make a bet so large that your opponent folds, if they would have called a smaller bet.


The correct play, if you were somehow certain that your opponent has a simple draw and you know the largest bet he will call, would be to make the largest bet your opponent will call.
Depending on the size of that bet, it may be a bet that your opponent is correct to call.


The money already in the pot in poker often means that both the hero's actions and the villain's actions can be correct. Sometimes no one is making a mistake. This does not contradict Sklansky's Fundamental Theorem of Poker.
Your thinking is flawed. The only way for you to have a better result on average than just taking down the pot when they fold is if they call a bet that they are incorrect to call.


For instance the pot is $100 with 1 card to come and you are an 80% favorite to win. Both hands are face up as is essentially the op's scenario. If the hand is checked down you win the $100 4 times and lose it once for an average of $80. If you bet enough to make your opponent fold you win the $100 5 times for an average of $100. If you bet $20 and they call (which they should) you now win $120 4 times and lose $20 once for an average of $92. If you bet $40 and they call (which they shouldn't) you now win $140 4 times and lose $40 once for an average of $104.


They had to make a mistake for you to do better than just picking up the pot.
 
A

AlexTheOwl

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 22, 2017
Total posts
860
Chips
0
Your thinking is flawed. The only way for you to have a better result on average than just taking down the pot when they fold is if they call a bet that they are incorrect to call.


For instance the pot is $100 with 1 card to come and you are an 80% favorite to win. Both hands are face up as is essentially the op's scenario. If the hand is checked down you win the $100 4 times and lose it once for an average of $80. If you bet enough to make your opponent fold you win the $100 5 times for an average of $100. If you bet $20 and they call (which they should) you now win $120 4 times and lose $20 once for an average of $92. If you bet $40 and they call (which they shouldn't) you now win $140 4 times and lose $40 once for an average of $104.


They had to make a mistake for you to do better than just picking up the pot.

I apologize, you are correct. I said above that the biggest bet the opponent would call was the correct play. But of course if the biggest bet is a relatively small amount, then you are making a mistake by not "charging the draw" a sufficient amount, and you would be better off betting large enough to induce a fold.
 
Gabinho12345

Gabinho12345

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 14, 2015
Total posts
1,290
Awards
24
Chips
0
You want to bet the amount that will give them bad odds to draw.
 
C

CallmeFloppy

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Apr 8, 2015
Total posts
1,296
Awards
2
Chips
1
Generally I prefer to get my opponents to fold unless of course I have whatever they are drawing to beat and therefore want them to call.
 
P

Pickat

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 7, 2018
Total posts
316
Chips
0
If you give them the right odds to call your bet you are only going to break even in the long run . I would bet enough in that situation to keep the odds in my favor so that long term you should be ahead whether they call or fold.
 
Folding in Poker
Top