Warrior1961
Legend
Bronze Level
Hi everyone.
I copy a note that I read there (in the end I will put the source, I hope this time correctly).
When I started playing Texas Hold'em, every time someone had the bad luck of losing with strong cards and obviously needed comfort, we kept telling ourselves not to worry because everything will be good in the long term.
What do we mean by this? Most certainly meant just that, not worrying about the lack of luck, because in the long run, if you keep betting so well, you will recover all our previous losses. This, unfortunately, is not true. The only truth is that the more often you do things right, the more likely you are to be a winning player.
You know that you can never recover a piece of someone with whom you unfairly lost, however, it is unlikely that the Justice League will break your doors to recover all the money you have earned from your opponents through "bad beats ". If someone is not convinced by my reasoning, I will try to prove it with a simple example:
An example of lost chips forever
Imagine a really rare situation, which only happens once or twice a year. Let the game be texas hold'em. After the turn card, you get a poker, you go all-in and the opponent has a full house. Let's say that on a table K 8 3 3 you have 33 while the opponent has KK. Only the fourth king can help the opponent, all other cards are good for you. The proportion of a good card and an unknown card is 43/44, so your chances of winning are 97.7%. To reiterate, 44 times are expected to lose once. We all saw or heard about games where the king came. Even if it wasn't against you, but you saw it happen. Happens. It is expected to happen once 44 times.
At the beginning of the example, I said that at most you will have 1 or 2 games like this a year, which means that during the average poker race, probably less than 46 times. Let's say you will experience it 26 times. If you ever lost a game like this, the best possible results you can get will be to win 24 of 25 times, which is only 96%. And that is in the rest of your life.
Then, based on this, you can say that the player like this who suffers from bad luck in a situation like this at least once, even if he wins every one of the next few times, he will not be able to "compensate for the lost chips." The percentage will surely remain below 97.7%, and the assumption mentioned above about the long term certainly cannot be applied.
Do all lines intersect at infinity?
You can draw a graph of each type of game that shows your actual results on chips or dollars won. Obviously, you don't do this with a pencil and a calculator, instead, a tracking software will do it for you. Anyone who has seen something like this knows that the software is also able to draw more graphics. The most important of all this is the one that calculates the odds and shows our performance in that way. We call this an EV chart. (The meaning of EV here is the expected value). The EV chart gives you a more accurate view of our performance than the chart that details your actual earnings, since at some level you avoid the uncertainty of randomness.
Many people, including some world class players, often assume, due to lack of knowledge, that these two graphics will definitely intersect or meet at infinity. Obviously, this worries people who run worse than their EV. Whoever is above EV tends to expect that. The two graphs definitely correlate, but the unions are not guaranteed.
Actually, the exact opposite happens. Over time, an even greater discrepancy between the actual results and the EV is expected. However, the relative discrepancy will be smaller, so you can say the following: the difference between EV and actual results will increase as you play with your hands, however, the difference between the two values in percentages will be less and less.
Source: https://www.pokerstars.es/es/blog/p...rs-school---el-largo-plazo-en-el-183008.shtml
I copy a note that I read there (in the end I will put the source, I hope this time correctly).
When I started playing Texas Hold'em, every time someone had the bad luck of losing with strong cards and obviously needed comfort, we kept telling ourselves not to worry because everything will be good in the long term.
What do we mean by this? Most certainly meant just that, not worrying about the lack of luck, because in the long run, if you keep betting so well, you will recover all our previous losses. This, unfortunately, is not true. The only truth is that the more often you do things right, the more likely you are to be a winning player.
You know that you can never recover a piece of someone with whom you unfairly lost, however, it is unlikely that the Justice League will break your doors to recover all the money you have earned from your opponents through "bad beats ". If someone is not convinced by my reasoning, I will try to prove it with a simple example:
An example of lost chips forever
Imagine a really rare situation, which only happens once or twice a year. Let the game be texas hold'em. After the turn card, you get a poker, you go all-in and the opponent has a full house. Let's say that on a table K 8 3 3 you have 33 while the opponent has KK. Only the fourth king can help the opponent, all other cards are good for you. The proportion of a good card and an unknown card is 43/44, so your chances of winning are 97.7%. To reiterate, 44 times are expected to lose once. We all saw or heard about games where the king came. Even if it wasn't against you, but you saw it happen. Happens. It is expected to happen once 44 times.
At the beginning of the example, I said that at most you will have 1 or 2 games like this a year, which means that during the average poker race, probably less than 46 times. Let's say you will experience it 26 times. If you ever lost a game like this, the best possible results you can get will be to win 24 of 25 times, which is only 96%. And that is in the rest of your life.
Then, based on this, you can say that the player like this who suffers from bad luck in a situation like this at least once, even if he wins every one of the next few times, he will not be able to "compensate for the lost chips." The percentage will surely remain below 97.7%, and the assumption mentioned above about the long term certainly cannot be applied.
Do all lines intersect at infinity?
You can draw a graph of each type of game that shows your actual results on chips or dollars won. Obviously, you don't do this with a pencil and a calculator, instead, a tracking software will do it for you. Anyone who has seen something like this knows that the software is also able to draw more graphics. The most important of all this is the one that calculates the odds and shows our performance in that way. We call this an EV chart. (The meaning of EV here is the expected value). The EV chart gives you a more accurate view of our performance than the chart that details your actual earnings, since at some level you avoid the uncertainty of randomness.
Many people, including some world class players, often assume, due to lack of knowledge, that these two graphics will definitely intersect or meet at infinity. Obviously, this worries people who run worse than their EV. Whoever is above EV tends to expect that. The two graphs definitely correlate, but the unions are not guaranteed.
Actually, the exact opposite happens. Over time, an even greater discrepancy between the actual results and the EV is expected. However, the relative discrepancy will be smaller, so you can say the following: the difference between EV and actual results will increase as you play with your hands, however, the difference between the two values in percentages will be less and less.
Source: https://www.pokerstars.es/es/blog/p...rs-school---el-largo-plazo-en-el-183008.shtml
