What if the stats lie?

Peppinotom

Peppinotom

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Ok, some of you know me a little by far, I'm not that experienced, read some, played a lot
and yes I am still struggeling with my first bankroll, never busted.
I analyzed my last month play and it was a month full of bad beats. I was often dealt the second best hand, monster-draws on the flop kept monsterdraws on and after the river.
My opponents on the other hand could play whatever they want, the board was painted for them, beating all of my hands, whenever I was lucky to get one.
OK, here comes the question: regarding stats for example every 5th flushdraw is completed. So the one you win HAS TO WIN FOR the 4 you lost. Ok, easy playing, flush completed, play for value..
But what if each and every flush you complete, is beaten by a FH or quads?
Does the counting start again? Will I ever be able to make win on my flushdraws, if the first 5 completed were lost? How do I have to handle things like this in my stats?
Does that mean anything at all?
 
eberetta1

eberetta1

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I hear what ya mean. One thing not included in the stats is players in the tournament. So against 50 players, you have a 2 percent chance of winning and against 1000 players, your odds of winning is once every thousand games. So stats are useless if it says my current hand has 90 percent chance of winning. I still have to win 400 hands and overcome a 99 percent chance of losing to 999 of the players.

The guaranteed winner is the house which is taking it in.
 
wsbar

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Hello friend, how are you doing? Hope so. Answering your question, I honestly think there is a secret in poker, to be a winning player there are some details that we have to find out what they are. I'm trying to find out. As soon as I find out I promise I will not divulge it as I will not divulge the Freeroll's Cardschat password. Hugs.
 
Peppinotom

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Thx 4 your answers, so I'm on the right way ;)
 
thatguy6793

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A lot of of the things you're talking about, like hitting a flush every fifth time, is more of a statistical likelihood than a statistic. Based primarily on the cards in a deck and what you are dealt you have this percentage to get this result. Personally you can't really put that much value on these because poker isn't played just on your cards so you also have to look at board textures, betting patterns and play styles of the other players to see if you're really winning. Start to look at this stuff and you'll be able to stop the loses when your flush is beat by quads or a better flush.
 
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To say that you must win every fifth flush hand you are dealt is statistical stupidity. There is no law saying that if you've lost four times you will win the next one. Each hand is independent of any of the previous ones. You could play any number of flush hands before you win.
 
BuzzKillington

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Peppinotom said:
Ok, some of you know me a little by far, I'm not that experienced, read some, played a lot
and yes I am still struggeling with my first bankroll, never busted.
I analyzed my last month play and it was a month full of bad beats. I was often dealt the second best hand, monster-draws on the flop kept monsterdraws on and after the river.
My opponents on the other hand could play whatever they want, the board was painted for them, beating all of my hands, whenever I was lucky to get one.
OK, here comes the question: regarding stats for example every 5th flushdraw is completed. So the one you win HAS TO WIN FOR the 4 you lost. Ok, easy playing, flush completed, play for value..
But what if each and every flush you complete, is beaten by a FH or quads?
Does the counting start again? Will I ever be able to make win on my flushdraws, if the first 5 completed were lost? How do I have to handle things like this in my stats?
Does that mean anything at all?
Click to expand...
I'm a little confused. Not sure what you're asking.

Start counting again? When you calculate statistics, there is no beginning or an end (thanks to independence!). You just have to make sure that your samples are truly random (i.e., not biased).

It also matters what kind of game you are playing. If you are playing full ring, then the likelihood (and therefore the frequency) of an opponent having a better hand than you increases compared to a 6-max game.



thatguy6793 said:
A lot of of the things you're talking about, like hitting a flush every fifth time, is more of a statistical likelihood than a statistic..
Click to expand...
There is a difference, but given enough hands, they will converge towards each other. Given an infinite number of hands, they are exactly the same. In statistics, likelihoods are often defined (I should say estimated) in terms of frequencies (what you call statistics).
 
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Peppinotom

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i got it, statitics is only what should happen and in the long run it fulfils for some
 
Willroquefan

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The stats are good way to decide before decisions on flush draws or little pairs but sometimes it doesn't work.That's just an exception that sometimes happens.But I have trust on the stats.
 
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Infinity Objective

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I'm a stat lover, and I process very quickly as horse handicapping has helped me hone that skill. Poker is way beyond stats, stats should be in the periphery, a tool, instincts that encompass stat information, and all other attributes you need to be an A+ player that come into play. Stats are great but sometimes you have to play the worker role, or the CEO, the hunter, or prey and those are split second decisions and your behavior will express way beyond your cards. You know that though, right?

I've watched poker games on tv, a whole different experience as to watching the fast moving online. So if your talking online, step out of your game and start watching other people play at different levels. That perspective will make you a better student / teacher, and help you reset. Do it because it will be fun not because it makes sense, start out watching a friend makes it pretty easy rooting them on from the sidelines.
 
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