What does $EV Diff really mean?

sissto

sissto

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Hi,

currently I'm using the trial version of DriveHUD. Yesterday I played a hand (see history below) and I was wondering what the column "$EV Diff" really mean.. I think it's not a DriveHUD specific topic, because other tracking programs show this indicator, too!
In this case it says +1571.20 and NetWon is -6263.00. Does it mean, that my play was +EV?

Many thanks in advance :)




Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $200(BB)
UTG ($4492) [VPIP: 17.2% | PFR: 13.8% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 9.1% | hands: 29]
EP ($4740) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 8.3% | AGG: 20% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 12]
HERO ($6263) [VPIP: 21.1% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 38.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 133]
HJ ($430) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 14]
CO ($6920) [VPIP: 20.6% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 3.8% | 3-Bet: 8.7% | Hands: 63]
BTN ($3070) [VPIP: 13.1% | PFR: 9.8% | AGG: 27.8% | 3-Bet: 6.3% | Hands: 61]
SB ($28214) [VPIP: 24.2% | PFR: 9.7% | AGG: 23.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 63]
BB ($13756) [VPIP: 25.7% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 12.5% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 35]

Dealt to Hero: 7 7♣

UTG Folds, EP Folds, HERO Calls $200, HJ Folds, CO Calls $200, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $800, BB Folds, HERO Calls $600, CO Calls $600

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.1 effective]
Flop ($2600): 5♠ 4♣ 4♠
SB Bets $2600 (Rem. Stack: 24814), HERO Raises To $5463 (allin), CO Folds, SB Calls $2863 (Rem. Stack: 21951)

Turn ($13526): 5♠ 4♣ 4♠ 5

River ($13526): 5♠ 4♣ 4♠ 5 T

SB shows: 9 9♣

SB wins: $13526
 
F

FloppyNutzs

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Reference https://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-expected-value.php

On the flop there was 2400 in the pot when the open bet was made for 2600.
That brought the pot 5000

So the question is if you shove what hands should they fold and what hands should the call.

First you have to put your opponent on a range of hands.
We will leave out straight and flush for simplicity
And let say you can assume A9 and lower is outside of the opponents range.
So the opponents rang is AK - AT and any pocket pair.

Not sure my combinations are correct but let go with it...

Opponents losing combinations
AK - AT = 48 combinations
66, 33, 22 = 6 combinations
33 - 22 = 12 combinations

Opponents winning combinations
AA - 88 = 42
44, 55= 12 combinations

Total combinations = 66 opponent losing hands plus 54 opponent winning hands = 120
Let assume the opponent would call his winning hands, and fold his losing hands...
P(call) = 54/120
P(fold) = 66/120


f we shove and he folds, we win the $5000. If we shove and he calls, we are always beat and we lose our additional bet of 5463 - 2600 = 2863


Amount(call) = -2600
Amount(fold) = 5000

We have two opponents so
EV(shove) = (54/120)(-$2600) + (66/120)($5000)


EV(shove) = -1170+ 2750 = +1580 (pretty close to what the calculator had) 1571.20

So yes the play to shove does seem to be +EV to me.

EV is expected value based on expected outcome.
However, as you saw +EV plays doesn't always result in winning hands.
If you are generally always making +EV plays you should come out ahead as in this case as in this case you wold expect your opponents to fold to that shove about 54% of the time.

EV is only useful if you can actually pinpoint your opponents range and there reaction to your action. So basically there are a lot of things assumed.

I hope this was straight forward enough.
If not review the referenced post about 20 times until and hopefully it will help. :drunken_s

If anyone thinks my number are wrong please fix thanks!!!
Now, try to calculate your EV in real time.
 
sissto

sissto

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Thank you very much for your detailed answer :)
 
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