Originally Posted by Vinther90
We have all heard that mtts have a higher brutal variance than cash games. But recently i saw a chart of statistics of bad beats in hours between cash games and tournaments. It seemed to me that over time, the variance was quite the same because hands are played faster in cashgames Which allows for Playing more hands over time.
Cash game were 6-max's
mtts were full ring , 10 minutes blinds.
What is your experience and opinion on variance between cashgames and tournaments?
there are some good posts on variance in the general tab - but here is a quick summary of my opinion
variance - in poker - deals with two issues
1. How much you can win or lose vs. BB or buy ins
2. Winning percentages being beaten, and how often
the higher these things are, the higher the variance is
variance deals with how much something happens vs. the norm (AA losing to 72 twice in a row) and how much is affected vs. the norm (AA at $1/$2 game in your stats nets you 7xBB/h lifetime, however you just lost 200xBB twice in a row)
its not just about the bad beats, its the effect of them - so in theory, you can design a tournament or a cash game that has the highest variance ever, therefore you can not compare them I think.
your best bet is to take two particular examples and analyze them to see which has more. ex - a ten handed cash game at $1/$2 blinds, NLH, but the buy in is $1000 and plays with a kill, everyone at the table has $10k in their pocket to buy back in with and loves to gamble - this is a very high variance game and can eclipse most tournaments - however, the Colossus in WSOP2015 was pretty high in variance as well, considering how many players there were, how how many chips were at the tables near the money and beyond, and how many amateurs were in the field....which has more variance - tough call
I do not think you should ever use variance as a determination of whether or not you are going to play a mtt or cash game (of the same game) - because overall they are equal in variance - cash games can just hurt your wallet faster and at a higher rate
stsngs are a different story, they are much lower in variance, especially 6 handed, and most of all heads up - than cash games or mtts - which is why they are my favorite to play