Variance

shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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I have a question that I have never seen an answer for when it comes to variance.

Has variance ever been gauged and if so what is the average length?
In other words, how long , on average, would I expect to be on a losing curve?

ATM, I'm playing 5NL.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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It depends. If you're actually a losing player, your curve will have ups and downs, but overall, it will trend down until you improve or stop. If you're a winning player, you will be more vulnerable to long downturns if you play higher-variance games and/or a higher variance style.
 
CuttleFish

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Even variance has........variance. So the answer is anywhere from it will stop immediately to it will never stop.
 
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Big_Rudy

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CuttleFish said:
Even variance has........variance. So the answer is anywhere from it will stop immediately to it will never stop.
Click to expand...

Well, THAT'S a pleasant thought....thanks for that:p .
 
Shwiggler

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It impossible to gauge length of variance. Think about it in terms of a simple coin flip. You know that if you flip the thing an infinite amount of times you will get heads 50% and tails 50% of the time. But there will be times you get 40 tails in a row when expecting heads. There is really no way to determine when things will even out over a finite period of time.
 
jaxpaboo

jaxpaboo

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The toughest thing about variance is it can only be applied to your history, not your future.
 
Kenzie 96

Kenzie 96

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CuttleFish said:
Even variance has........variance. So the answer is anywhere from it will stop immediately to it will never stop.
Click to expand...




This^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ + there is no such animal as an average Canadian, so that part of your question is irrevelant. ;)
 
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peedee91

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you have to play your way out of downswings.....you will have an upswing eventually
 
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NoOneYouKnow

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Variance by its very nature has no reference to a time frame. It just is.
 
blueskies

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Shwiggler said:
It impossible to gauge length of variance. Think about it in terms of a simple coin flip. You know that if you flip the thing an infinite amount of times you will get heads 50% and tails 50% of the time. But there will be times you get 40 tails in a row when expecting heads. There is really no way to determine when things will even out over a finite period of time.
Click to expand...

Things won't even out. Even if temporarily you do get a 1:1 split in heads/tails, it will inevitably deviate from that "equilibrium" again. All you can hope for is to win somewhere near your expected rate of winnings.

If variance were predictable in any way other than after-the-fact, then it wouldn't be "variance."
 
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