re: Poker & Variance
Originally Posted by Shwiggler
It impossible to gauge length of variance. Think about it in terms of a simple coin flip. You know that if you flip the thing an infinite amount of times you will get heads 50% and tails 50% of the time. But there will be times you get 40 tails in a row when expecting heads. There is really no way to determine when things will even out over a finite period of time.
Things won't even out. Even if temporarily you do get a 1:1 split in heads/tails, it will inevitably deviate from that "equilibrium" again. All you can hope for is to win somewhere near your expected rate of winnings.
If variance were predictable in any way other than after-the-fact, then it wouldn't be "variance."