Value bet or all in?

Reven420

Reven420

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Nov 2, 2014
Total posts
18
Chips
0
Over my time in playing poker I have noticed a couple of trends in betting with made hands. For example, You flop a set and by the river you are fairly certain your set is good, but also fairly sure your opponent has a good enough hand to call you down. I notice some players at this point will make a smaller value bet trying to get the most from what you calculate your opponent will call. Other times I see players go all in, they don't get called as much but when they do they make quite a bit more. Phil Ivey is a professional that comes to mind that I have seen employ the all in tactic.

My question is this, in the long hall which method proves more profitable? The smaller more likely to be called value bets, or the huge occasionally called all in bets? Any math players in here care to explain the math on this?
 
MattRyder

MattRyder

🍏 Tech That Works!
Platinum Level
Joined
Sep 12, 2013
Total posts
8,309
Awards
15
Chips
0
I'd have to ask how you got to the river in the first place? How much does the other player have invested in the hand already? What kind of hand is going to call an all-in bet on the river that doesn't have you beat (other than at the very low stakes where anything goes)? This just seems a very odd situation that you've described that can't really be answered without more details. I will say this though - like so many things in poker, there isn't one single answer that can be applied in every situation.
 
Reven420

Reven420

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Nov 2, 2014
Total posts
18
Chips
0
Ok for example.
Last week I played a hand, 6max cash game 2c/5c. Folded around and cutoff raised to 12c (very lag player). I called with pocket 8s on the button. Flop came A 2 8 rainbow. He raised to pot and I called making it 72c. Turn came k He bet the pot again I called. pot is now $2.16. river came 7. He checked, I went all in and he called showing AK.
I know it doesn't normally work in cash games aside from micro stakes, seems to work more often in lower MTT. As I said the idea came from watching Ivey do it a couple times during the main event, eventually doing and and getting knocked out from set over set.
When I see it done it works in micro stakes maybe 15% of the time, but when it does the payout is huge. So over time I wonder if the bigger payout working less often is more or less profitable than a small valuebet with a much higher chance of being called?
 
Last edited:
P

paulsmall007

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 18, 2016
Total posts
571
Chips
0
The situation you described is hard without playing a lot of hands with the player and knowing he's capable of calling there, who knows the if the king didn't come if he would called the all in with say AJ, seems with his river check he was trying to set a trap and just didn't put you on the set cause you under represented your hand by just calling and not re-raising.

The Ivey thing is more about his table image and using that against people, he plays a decently wide range of hands and doing the river shove trying to bluff and buy the pot (at least he wants the other player to believe that). I'm sure thst was just a calculated. Move that he made and felt the guy was a calling station or would believe he was trying to steal the hand and wouldn't let it go
 
vinnie

vinnie

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2013
Total posts
1,208
Awards
1
US
Chips
50
I am a big proponent of the all-in overbet with the nuts on the river at the micros. The reason being, you're not getting enough extra folds to make it not worth it.

Say we have a pot of 40xbb on the river. I can bet 15xbb and get called 80% of the time, 25xbb and get called 60% of the time, or 60xbb and get called 30% of the time.

80% of 15xbb = 12xbb
60% of 25xbb = 15xbb
30% of 60xbb = 18xbb

And, those numbers are pretty conservative. Say someone calls a 3/4 pot bet 50% of the time (0.375 pot return). Are they really going to fold to a 5/4 pot bet more than 70% of the time (which is our break even point). You think they're folding that much more often? Usually not. This is especially true if the 5/4 bet is an all-in and the 3/4 bet is not. The all-in bets look "fishier" than smaller bets.

Basically, if you double your bet size (say from half pot to full pot), they need to call less than half as often as they were for it to be a mistake. If they call 60% of the time for a half pot, they need to call less than 30% of the time for a full pot to make the half-pot better. Generally, ranges don't fall off that quickly.

In hold'em, I err on the side of value more often than not. The only time I go small is when I think they are very unlikely to call anything higher, and then I still aim for the highest amount that I think can get a call, even if it is 1/8 pot. My bluffs are also based on what size bets I think they call and how often. Except there I tend towards the lower end, because the extra amount bet isn't buying me enough extra folds.

This exploitable play works well at the micros, because most people aren't paying attention or asking questions about your river bet sizing. They see that you've bet a variety of sizes with a variety of hand strengths (sometimes large with the nuts, sometimes small... sometimes large with a bluff, sometimes small), and don't connect it with the strength of the opponents range, not your own hand.

Edit: And, by all-in overbet, I meant OVERbet. I have shoved 5 times pot on the river when I expected the person to have a very good second best hand. And, I have gotten calls way more often than I should have.
 
gjwalk

gjwalk

Legend
Platinum Level
Joined
Apr 25, 2009
Total posts
2,334
Awards
15
Chips
267
It usually depends a lot on who you're playing. Sometimes when playing a very aggressive opponent, you want to look like you've got a weak hand by making a small bet. You're hoping your opponent will raise to try and get you off the hand. With some however the small bet will set off the alarm bells, ok this guy wants me to raise, I think I'll just call..or even fold. Know your opponents.
 
KERAPUTIH

KERAPUTIH

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2016
Total posts
91
Chips
0
Ok for example.
Last week I played a hand, 6max cash game 2c/5c. Folded around and cutoff raised to 12c (very lag player). I called with pocket 8s on the button. Flop came A 2 8 rainbow. He raised to pot and I called making it 72c. Turn came k He bet the pot again I called. pot is now $2.16. river came 7. He checked, I went all in and he called showing AK.
I know it doesn't normally work in cash games aside from micro stakes, seems to work more often in lower MTT. As I said the idea came from watching Ivey do it a couple times during the main event, eventually doing and and getting knocked out from set over set.
When I see it done it works in micro stakes maybe 15% of the time, but when it does the payout is huge. So over time I wonder if the bigger payout working less often is more or less profitable than a small valuebet with a much higher chance of being called?

In my opinion, better do value bet than over bet with all in.
If a player do value bet (30%) of pot on river, its clearly means he had the best hand. If a player do huge all in, there are two situation you create for your opponent. 1. You do bluff, or 2. You over value bet.

In this situation, If your opponent hit the best set over you. You will get huge lost and feel very dissapointed. So, when you wanna do over bet all in, make sure you had the best chance of set on board.
 
C

CallmeFloppy

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Apr 8, 2015
Total posts
1,296
Awards
2
Chips
1
Like others have said it depends on my opponent and also what I think the image my opponent has of me. If I think my opponent will call anything because they think I will bluff the river with an all in, I'll do that. If I think my opponent believes they can push me off my hand, I might make a small bet, hope he reraises and come back over the top.
 
K

karl coakley

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 6, 2016
Total posts
853
Chips
0
I don't have much luck with the over bet. Usually I'm at 1/2 the pot which is a bit more than a "value bet".
 
okeedokalee

okeedokalee

Glory To Ukraine
Loyaler
Joined
Feb 3, 2008
Total posts
5,542
Awards
22
NZ
Chips
163
What was the effective stack.Usually they are low at 2/7 and the money goes in frequently because there is little at risk.
 
gardin555

gardin555

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Oct 3, 2015
Total posts
4,515
Awards
22
Chips
26
I think it's important to know the opponent and play the hand in relation to it.
The value bet works better when there is more than one opponent, we stop the possibility that other players materialize a project in the other streets
that could be better than our hand.
 
cellait

cellait

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2016
Total posts
94
Chips
0
When I'm with a good hand on the river and reading know I will win I give just all in, because I know I will win, otherwise only being cautious climb.
 
jazzaxe

jazzaxe

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 6, 2007
Total posts
1,050
Awards
1
Chips
0
I like to judge what the flop indicates and what the opponent does with it. The value of position at this point is an advantage. Two cards to a straight or flush, I am going to make them pay for the nut card, usually an all in bet. Ace on the board, I am reraising to get opponent all in by the last street. Straight or flush and I will still draw at about six to one for the full house The simple answer is it all depends
 
S

Sidetracked

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Jun 30, 2016
Total posts
1,294
Awards
2
Chips
0
That's one of the most player dependent things in poker. Know your opponents, and you'll know which kind of bet to make.
 
doarrazva

doarrazva

Rising Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 23, 2016
Total posts
18
Chips
0
There is not just one answer. Depends on many factors,what type of player do you try to get value from,what is your history with him,what does he thinks do you have,etc.
 
Roman Tsygankov

Roman Tsygankov

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 5, 2016
Total posts
229
Chips
0
All-in is a part of value bet(as i think)- is is just a method of otsmarting your opponents.
 
antonis32123

antonis32123

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Dec 25, 2014
Total posts
6,362
Awards
20
GR
Chips
249
It's as the guys say above . I totally agree , it realy has to do with many factors , especially how you got to the river , with big bets , slowplaying or limping then you bet low and hope to get called , if you got there with big raises you can shove and have good chances to get called .
It depends on the villain , his stats , how he plays , it's not a yes or not matter.
On the micro stakes usually it's very easy , you can win big pots , shove and get called easily when you have for example a set and the other can call all in with Aq , I have seen even Aj . haha .
 
D

dejan85

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2015
Total posts
712
Chips
0
if you go allin than other will probabllyfold a hand,also what can happenif you wait to you set be paid than other player can by something...
 
C

CallmeFloppy

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Apr 8, 2015
Total posts
1,296
Awards
2
Chips
1
Certainly depends on who you are playing. One tactic my be much more profitable in one situation and a poor in another.
 
C

chronical

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 15, 2014
Total posts
1,128
Awards
1
Chips
1
I think value betting is suually smarter:
1. if you see a sacry turn/river yiou have a chanseto walk away from the hand
2. the players that are willing to go allin are usually the ones that are going to call 3 barrels any way, or shove themselves.
3. if you shove you are bluffing in a way since good hands that could pay you off might fold, and moster are going to call this way or the other.
4 . if you are playing against "fit or fold" player he will fold to a 3bb bet this way or the other if he misses the flop
5. 1/3-1/2 pot bets are good enogh to make your op pot commited to call you big bet on the river, or even a shove.
6. t\you should mind al so how bog is the pot : to BB, there i no reason to be slow playing set+ to get 7bb of value at the end
7. what vinnie said =) but only on the river since point#5 your op is most likely pot commited with ~50%+ of his stack in the pot
 
poliaris747

poliaris747

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 21, 2016
Total posts
1,540
Chips
0
There is no single answer to your question! I believe as well as other players, a lot of players with curled kotymi you play. For each of them the rate should be. After you've spent some time at the table and did what the note of each player?
Some players will answer all in , others fold, see and learn the styles in which opponents play. Well, look what can be the hands that kill your set.
 
A

Amish_player

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Oct 12, 2016
Total posts
16
Chips
0
My opinion is you make more overall with the all ins at the end vs value bet. Atleast at very low stakes, you tend to get called close to half the time and get way more than twice the value bet. Im assuming its less so at higher stakes where play is more standard and strong hands folded more when beat.
 
Top