Understanding +EV and -EV decisions

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NGavin_85

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Hi all,

I'm pretty sure this has been talked about in this forum but I can't find much. Also, I can't find many articles that simplify the concept of +EV or -EV decisions.

Can someone maybe point me to some good articles? I see it being talked about on the forum quite a bit but don't understand what it actually means.

Thanks heaps.
 
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NGavin_85

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This will help you understand +EV a little more

https://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-expected-value.php

Thanks. I've tried to read this article but I wish it had some more examples or a simpler way to understand (like the 4 and 2 rule). It is hard to think about +EV calls when I have 15seconds to make a decision so unless I try and look through lots of examples, I guess I won't be able to get good at it.

Sorry about rambling on about it.
 
Four Dogs

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I don't know how basic you're looking for but here goes. EV of course stands for expected value. The simplest way to explane EV would be to say that any decisions you make that are mathematically profitable are +EV and any that mathematically unprofitable are -EV.

So lets say you have a coin and someone gives you 1:1 odds to pick whether the coin will flip heads up or tails up. Because the chance of either outcome is 50%, this would be a neutral EV proposition if the coin flip were played out an infinite number of times. That is, you would neither make nor lose money. A pointless and boring game indeed.

But now lets say someone if foolish enough to give you 2:1 odds on your choice of heads or tails. Well, this hasn't changed your chance of winning a bit, you still have 50% equity before the coinflip. But it has changed the game from being neutral EV to +EV for you and -EV for the chump who made the bet. On an average you'll still only win the coinflip 1 out of every 2 times but now your wins will be twice as big as your losses IF and only IF you play the scenario out an infinite number of times. I say infinite because any finite number of flips will result in someone being either slightly ahead or slightly behind their true expected value.

This is a poker forum so I suppose you want to know how it applies to the game. Every decision you make in poker is either profitable +EV or unprofitable -EV. Sometimes the math is straight forward like when someone bets 1/3 pot on a turn card where any heart will give you the nut flush. In this case there are 46 unseen cards and 9 of them will make the winning hand for you. You're being laid 4:1 pot odds to call but you only need 3:1 to make it profitable, so you call. You will still lose the hand 3 out of 4 times but the eventual win will more than make up for the losses. This is exactly like the coin flip scenario from above except that while no sane person would ever give you 2:1 odds on a coin flip they will give you 4:1 odds or better in poker on a draw. It happens all the time, either because they don't put you on the correct hand or because they just plain don't know how to play.

Now as far as poker goes the example above is about as straight forward as it gets but the actual opportunities for finding other less obvious +EV situations are almost limitless. Sometimes they can be pretty abstract like estimating someone bluffing range on the river to determine whether to fold a Full House or call with Ace High. And sometimes it's real easy like when your counting outs to make the best hand. Or, sometimes you might even intentionally make some small -EV decisions in order to get a bigger payoff on the +EV ones. Now you're playin' poker!

OK, enough for now. Hope that wasn't too confusing.
 
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Thanks man. I'm going to do some more reading and if I have some questions, I might post it here.
 
luckytvguy

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Amoung the books I have read,Sklansky is more like talking abou EV than others authors.So I recommand his books.I agree with you, I also cant calculate the ev in seconds when playing,and that is why I read the books which tells me which option is +EV in advance,I just bear that in my mind.
 
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Amoung the books I have read,Sklansky is more like talking abou EV than others authors.So I recommand his books.I agree with you, I also cant calculate the ev in seconds when playing,and that is why I read the books which tells me which option is +EV in advance,I just bear that in my mind.

Thanks man. I'll look into Sklansky's book too. I've got a long flight coming up in a month so it's good that I've got quite a bit of reading lined up :)
 
luckytvguy

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Thanks man. I'll look into Sklansky's book too. I've got a long flight coming up in a month so it's good that I've got quite a bit of reading lined up :)
If you have a kindle,or android,ios mobile which also can install kindle App,than I recommand you buy the kindle version of sklansky's books at Amazon,it will be very convient to read.
 
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If you have a kindle,or android,ios mobile which also can install kindle app,than I recommand you buy the kindle version of sklansky's books at Amazon,it will be very convient to read.

Just did it this morning :). Also added John's (PokerZion) new eBook to my list on Kindle.
 
luckytvguy

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Just did it this morning :). Also added John's (PokerZion) new eBook to my list on Kindle.
Did you transfer John's book perfectly?I have posted talking about that,there were some problems in transferd version.
 
kingphil02

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Hello go to the learning poker section if that doesnt explain enoght then try to get a hold of dan harrington on holdem vol. 1 great book I FINALLY STATED READING regs and pros will benfit very straight forward will make anyone understand alot about poker and gambling in general.
 
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Did you transfer John's book perfectly?I have posted talking about that,there were some problems in transferd version.

Yeah I just emailed the .pdf version to my kindle account. Worked fine :)
 
John A

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Yeah I just emailed the .pdf version to my kindle account. Worked fine :)

Cool, good to know. When I get back I'm looking into some other formats.

There's a good amount of info an explanation on EV in my book, so it should help. If there's a more specific question on it though, let me know.
 
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NGavin_85

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Cool, good to know. When I get back I'm looking into some other formats.

There's a good amount of info an explanation on EV in my book, so it should help. If there's a more specific question on it though, let me know.

Thanks John. I will let you know :)
 
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