Two Hands in a Row

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Riemannian man

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I had an interesting thing happen to me earlier, that I did without thinking much about it. I was playing a 27 man SNG, I believe I was around 3/10 at the time this occurred. A hand that I was not in was happening, and one of the players doubles up with pocket aces (his double up now covers me). The next hand I'm UTG with KK, standard raise, and this same player 3 bets me, and before I pushed (because I'm not folding KK) I remember being like "does he have AA? Nah, he just had AA" and pretty much excluded it from his range. I obviously then lost to his AA.

I'm not really complaining about anything in this hand, this is standard, but it got me thinking that under different circumstances, this thinking could potentially cost me. I'm more or less curious about if other people randomly has this thinking (I remember awhile back I lost to a set that a player had two hands in a row (hitting trip 6's on the flop), and had similar reasoning like this one). Obviously the previous hand has no affect on the upcoming hand mathematically, but psychologically, it just seems natural to exclude because of its rarity. I'm hoping I've finally learned my lesson (which really only comes into effect post flop, most preflop plays are probably still correct with the omission).

Anyone else have similar stories?
 
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RamdeeBen

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It isn't uncommon to have you thought process. The chances of actually picking up Aces two times in a row is rare and the same applies to hitting a set twice in a row. Shoving Kings I guess is standard regardless. You can't ever put anyone on Aces or a set twice in a row so don't worry about it..
 
takethepain

takethepain

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The reality is that you have just as much chance at picking up pocket aces after you have had them 4 times in a row, as if you havn't had them for 3000 hands. I would had shoved there with KK too, but still, every hand should be played on its merits!
 
naruto_miu

naruto_miu

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Riemannian man said:
I had an interesting thing happen to me earlier, that I did without thinking much about it. I was playing a 27 man SNG, I believe I was around 3/10 at the time this occurred. A hand that I was not in was happening, and one of the players doubles up with pocket aces (his double up now covers me). The next hand I'm UTG with KK, standard raise, and this same player 3 bets me, and before I pushed (because I'm not folding KK) I remember being like "does he have AA? Nah, he just had AA" and pretty much excluded it from his range. I obviously then lost to his AA.

I'm not really complaining about anything in this hand, this is standard, but it got me thinking that under different circumstances, this thinking could potentially cost me. I'm more or less curious about if other people randomly has this thinking (I remember awhile back I lost to a set that a player had two hands in a row (hitting trip 6's on the flop), and had similar reasoning like this one). Obviously the previous hand has no affect on the upcoming hand mathematically, but psychologically, it just seems natural to exclude because of its rarity. I'm hoping I've finally learned my lesson (which really only comes into effect post flop, most preflop plays are probably still correct with the omission).

Anyone else have similar stories?
Click to expand...


Well first of all it sucks that had to happen to you so late in the game...

Now my question to you is this? Did you observe how this player played his AA when he had them (The 1st time around)? If you were paying attention then you'd realize how He/She played those AA, then making your choice with KK much more Simplified... Am I Saying folding is Obvious answer, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! All I'm saying is had you included those thoughts, into your equation then you'd get to a better choice....

Now also Another about thought Processes (There a great thing), but Thinking a player can't Have AA because you got KK or they had AA the hand before is just wrong....The reason for this is simply because then you'll never evolve as a player (This aspect someone else can keep on telling you more about it)


Just my thoughts is all
 
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Riemannian man

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Yah, I realize this thinking is wrong, and I didn't think too much about it at the time, because the shove was happening no matter what here, but the result got me thinking about it more and the similar circumstances that this type of thing should affect.

Also the previous hand was quite different. He got three streets of betting in, with the push on the river. In this hand, there were several hands he would be 3-betting with, a standard 2.3-2.5ish raise, so yeah...
 
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