So lets have some fun......
Originally Posted by Dorkus Malorkus
SNGs are, broken down to their simplest form, a sequence of gambles for stacks. If you don't like that, don't play them. Even if, for example, you get your stack in twice as a 60% favourite, it's actually significantly more likely that you'll be eliminated than still in after the second hand, seeing as assuming you're playing for your entire stack in both cases you only need to lose one of the two hands in order for you to be eliminated. Add a third iteration and it becomes even more likely you'll be out, and so on. Yet if you just look at the final hand that you got knocked out on and your equity in that, you will fall victim to the incorrect notion that you were somehow "unlucky".
I know that I have read DM telling us that each individual hand is unique and not connected to the previous, or next hand so trying to find patterns in the cards is stupid. I tend to agree but every now and then it happens.
I also remember a thread which (in jest) suggested that every hand you get involved with was a 50-50 situation, you either won it or lost it. Card odds
be damned, it was 50-50. Not sure DM got the humor of that thread.
Yet here he seems to be arguing a very similar, but not exact, scenario. Even tho you might be favored in a series of contests, even big favorites, in the end you are but a 50-50 guest in the series.
So, what does this mean? IDHAFC ! But lets invent a improbable example;
9 seat STT and in 8 hands it gets HU. Player AvB (A vs B) all in, then CvD, then EvF, then GvH, leaving I as the short stack at the 5th hand. Remaining players are ACEG and I.
Another round pits AvC, EvG, leaving I as the short stack. A and E won.
Field is AEI with A and E each with 4 times the chips I have er, ah has.
AvE takes out E, leaving A with 8x the chips I have/has. Confused yet? I am.
Lets say for this invention that A got AA 3 times in a row and was that 80% favorite in each hand and they all held. Overall he was .8 x.8 x.8 to win that series......works out to be 51.2% of the time that that will be the outcome.
I however, was 100% to not lose any chips and that held (convenient for this invention is that I was the button to start it.)
OK HU A v I.
I start(s) out an 8-1 dog, needing to double up 2 times to get about even. (x,2x,4x) making I just a 5-4 dog. Lets also say that A now goes back to getting AA again in HU AI situations. Regardless of my I's cards, A run of AA's will no longer be the favorite! Continuing from the 51.2% stat, it goes to 40,9%, then 32.7% then 26.2% etc, until AA has no reasonable chance at all of winning.
So if the stats hold true, I wins this match as the stats are in his favor from the moment HU starts.
If you take this too serious I will reign on your parade........