Turn & River combined odds obsolete?

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JKawai

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I have the chart from pokerology that tells me the odds of drawing after the turn and river combined.

So far I have been basing my bet sizing on these odds, however WiltOnTilt made an interesting point in a video about how actually this is wrong because of course you're going to have to bet again on the Turn!

For example if I've 8 outs (open straight) then my odds of making this by the river are 2.17:1. Originally if the pot were $100 I would have bet $85 in this situation to offer my odds, but then if it goes to the next street... I'll have to bet again...

However, perhaps the whole point of betting the 2.17:1 odds is to try to get opponent to fold as well? Because they ARE your odds whether you hit or not. So if they call, it's obviously profitable for them, meaning they have those odds or better (hypothetically speaking).

So I'm not sure whether to use the combined turn and river odds when betting on the flop, or to just use the flop to turn, and turn to river odds respectively.

If the latter, I don't think I'm going to have much luck. That would throw away all inside straight draws with 10.5:1 odds!

Thoughts?
 
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sometimes after flop called,
you may get a free card on turn, therefore using turn and river combine odds is fine.

but if flop get called, there is another bet on turn, then make the adjustment on the odds is right.

therefore it depends on the potential action may be involved.
 
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JKawai

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Agreed. I wonder whether it is worth offering combined odds though to induce a fold? I think a bet based on a single street's odds would a) be nowhere near enough b) be below the call amount c) denote weakness, inducing a raise, making the odds even worse.
 
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Agreed. I wonder whether it is worth offering combined odds though to induce a fold? I think a bet based on a single street's odds would a) be nowhere near enough b) be below the call amount c) denote weakness, inducing a raise, making the odds even worse.
These odds happened when limited holdem time
one bet on flop
if in any case there is another bet on turn,
the betting amount is fixed,
you may still call for implied odds.

but here is no limited holdem , therefore with absolutely any amount later street, odds needs to be adjust.
 
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hffjd2000

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I think it depends on your stack and his.

If the stack is so deep, consider odds for every street. If however one of you has short stack base on pot, then consider odds for both turn and river.
 
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Ben_Dover

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If any River bets happen then the '4' in the 'rule of 2 4' is a bust (if you care about perfect-break-even-pot-odds play).

I actually worked out the math for combined bets across turn + river for various outs. It's pretty hairy but I found some surprising combos. For example, if heads-up you flop a 9 outs flush draw and bet half-pot Turn, third-pot River then you get a perfect 34.9% return across both streets.

Work it out with any pot amount... Interesting!
 
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Ben_Dover

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if there are 18 outs, rules of 4,2 is not useful here. the percentage is overestimated.

Who cares, if you have 18 outs and turn+river to get a hit you can bet infinity.
 
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HooDooKoo

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If any River bets happen then the '4' in the 'rule of 2 4' is a bust (if you care about perfect-break-even-pot-odds play).

I actually worked out the math for combined bets across turn + river for various outs. It's pretty hairy but I found some surprising combos. For example, if heads-up you flop a 9 outs flush draw and bet half-pot Turn, third-pot River then you get a perfect 34.9% return across both streets.

Work it out with any pot amount... Interesting!

I don't see how this information is useful at all. Why aren't we including the flop bet sizing in this analysis?

-HooDooKoo
 
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Ben_Dover

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>> I actually worked out the math for combined bets across turn + river for various outs.

I don't see how this information is useful at all. Why aren't we including the flop bet sizing in this analysis?

-HooDooKoo


It does, I mean:
-the bet to see the turn card is HALF-POT.
-the bet to see the river card is THIRD-POT.

Across the two bets, with any pot amount, what is the return?

This idea may sound ludicrous because everything changes when you miss the turn card (conditional probability and such) but I'm on a two street bet plan here. Why should I care when the money comes in?
 
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Where to begin?!?! I guess we'll start with poker terminology.

1. A bet to see the turn is a flop bet, and a bet to see the river is a turn bet. River bets come after all the cards have been dealt --- and were ignored in your "analysis".

2. The "analysis" that you provided is useless for several reasons: it ignores the possibility of raises on the flop or turn; the weakness of the bet sizing, along with the deviation (hopefully) from your usual betting pattern, is a clear indicator of your holdings; and, finally, it ignores a full round of betting, thereby ignoring implied pot odds --- which are FAR MORE IMPORTANT in drawing situations than pot odds are.

3. Furthermore, playing the hand as you described removes fold equity from the equation, as no one with a better current hand is going to fold to a 1/2 pot flop bet or a 1/3 pot turn bet. Your betting patterns/sizes should generally incorporate fold equity or you're ignoring an important part of the game.

The bottom line is this: no one should be chasing a flush draw unless they believe that making their flush will give them the best hand (obviously) and, more importantly, that villain will PAY THEM OFF when they make their flush. Therefore, only the implied pot odds in these spots matter. Your "analysis" completely ignored the implied the pot odds, and is basically meaningless as a result.

Good luck.

-HooDooKoo
 
TomLeach

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Im not sure where to begin on this thread...

I think your odds of hitting an open ended straight are off, you can only really assume turn + river if you are all in... Or youre playing cash and you agree to both check the turn dark?
 
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Ben_Dover

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>Where to begin?!?! I guess we'll start with poker terminology.

lol add a 'to see the' in my original statement:

>> For example, if heads-up you flop a 9 outs flush draw and bet half-pot [to see the] Turn [card], third-pot [to see the] River [card] then you get a perfect 34.9% return across both streets.


I'm not saying you can get away with playing a flush draw this way, or proposing to chase any draw blindly, or to ignore implied odds on a draw, or to ignore the final River bet and hopefully get paid off. And I agree with you it seems that playing any draw by the book as break-even-pot-odds gives you measly bet sizes with little fold equity. I simply found it fascinating that I can split bets in such a way that the combined return equals the 2 street draw odds.

Would it surprise you that both a HALF+THIRD betting plan, and a THIRD+HALF betting plan for FLOP+TURN bets give the same 34.9% return? I was.

If I want to get shot down more I might open a new thread.
 
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HooDooKoo

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>Where to begin?!?! I guess we'll start with poker terminology.

lol add a 'to see the' in my original statement:

>> For example, if heads-up you flop a 9 outs flush draw and bet half-pot [to see the] Turn [card], third-pot [to see the] River [card] then you get a perfect 34.9% return across both streets.


I'm not saying you can get away with playing a flush draw this way, or proposing to chase any draw blindly, or to ignore implied odds on a draw, or to ignore the final River bet and hopefully get paid off. And I agree with you it seems that playing any draw by the book as break-even-pot-odds gives you measly bet sizes with little fold equity. I simply found it fascinating that I can split bets in such a way that the combined return equals the 2 street draw odds.

Would it surprise you that both a HALF+THIRD betting plan, and a THIRD+HALF betting plan for FLOP+TURN bets give the same 34.9% return? I was.

If I want to get shot down more I might open a new thread.

If you were just pointing out a mathematical "equality", that's fine. I thought you were recommending the "half+third" betting plan because it is mathematically breakeven, so I felt obligated to point out its flaws.

As far as your question goes: no, I don't find the fact that the "half+third" betting plan and the "third+half" betting plan are mathematically equivalent surprising at all --- but I've known for 30+ years that X% of Y = Y% of X.

Thanks for your follow-up.

-HooDooKoo
 
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Who cares, if you have 18 outs and turn+river to get a hit you can bet infinity.

18outs turn and river combine is 62.44% chance

but if using your way is 72%

the big difference is that
if using your way
eg.

all in flop with same stack
the true net equity is about 24.88% stack size

but your way is calculated by equity of 44% equity

this is big difference on the MTT bubble time , especially with big sharp pay out structure.
eg during some bubble of MTT, you need to call 70% winning chance, big stack all in preflop , show hand, and you got 18 outs draw, but you are still going to fold. because it is lose money. just this simple case, obv you are not care, if using 1 or 2 bux, but you MAY CARE the equity difference if the buyin is 10K bux.

if mis calculate your equity, you are still lose money.

just the simple case of 10% less or more is a big number for poker pro or regulars.
 
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Ben_Dover

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you need to call 70% winning chance

Why 70%? Is that number relevant in some MTT context?

If you're worried about a single $10K buy-in then maybe you want to wait for a 100% win. Otherwise anything over 50% is +EV in the long run (assuming you are willing to keep paying your 10k buy in over and over)
 
TomLeach

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18outs turn and river combine is 62.44% chance

but if using your way is 72%

the big difference is that
if using your way
eg.

all in flop with same stack
the true net equity is about 24.88% stack size

but your way is calculated by equity of 44% equity

this is big difference on the MTT bubble time , especially with big sharp pay out structure.
eg during some bubble of MTT, you need to call 70% winning chance, big stack all in preflop , show hand, and you got 18 outs draw, but you are still going to fold. because it is lose money. just this simple case, obv you are not care, if using 1 or 2 bux, but you MAY CARE the equity difference if the buyin is 10K bux.

if mis calculate your equity, you are still lose money.

just the simple case of 10% less or more is a big number for poker pro or regulars.

Didnt read a lot of the posts in this thread because im not sure what any body is talking about, however, with the exception of adjusting to the different types of players at different stakes, you shouldnt be saying 'ill do this because its only 1$', thats a losing strategy....

Why 70%? Is that number relevant in some MTT context?

If you're worried about a single $10K buy-in then maybe you want to wait for a 100% win. Otherwise anything over 50% is +EV in the long run (assuming you are willing to keep paying your 10k buy in over and over)

In MTT's, whilst you want to play to win, sometimes youre going to pass up slightly +eV situations due to the risk. If youre 100bb deep, and youre 500th out of 2000 entrants, with 350 being paid, you have KQc and the board is 6d7dKh, you c-bet, and someone shoves their 100bb stack into a 30bb pot, are you gonna call? I think I can lay it down, because 90bb is still a great stack and im going to be able to get into a better situation later on...
 
Sil3ntness

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Didnt read a lot of the posts in this thread because im not sure what any body is talking about, however, with the exception of adjusting to the different types of players at different stakes, you shouldnt be saying 'ill do this because its only 1$', thats a losing strategy....



In MTT's, whilst you want to play to win, sometimes youre going to pass up slightly +eV situations due to the risk. If youre 100bb deep, and youre 500th out of 2000 entrants, with 350 being paid, you have KQc and the board is 6d7dKh, you c-bet, and someone shoves their 100bb stack into a 30bb pot, are you gonna call? I think I can lay it down, because 90bb is still a great stack and im going to be able to get into a better situation later on...

Good point! I agree though you really have to play the player as well not just the board/cards. In the above paragraph you said someone has a bad mindset of "it's just a $1". Well in micro MTTs least on Carbon they DO shove top pair and if you are getting the right pot odds/implied odds sometimes you gotta make that call. Especially in turbos where the blinds/antes are eating you alive.

Now obviously if this was the wsop Main Event and you're playing against a solid pro you throw away KQ suited with the quickness on your suggest board, but again an important factor is who's doing the shoving? Do they shove frequently? Are they a LAG tard or TAG? Could be facing a set of 6s or 7s maybe pocket kings, flush draw, straight draw, 67 two pair, and etc. Know the player & their range and you got a better shot at making that call or fold.
 
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TomLeach

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Good point! I agree though you really have to play the player as well not just the board/cards. In the above paragraph you said someone has a bad mindset of "it's just a $1". Well in micro MTTs least on Carbon they DO shove top pair and if you are getting the right pot odds/implied odds sometimes you gotta make that call. Especially in turbos where the blinds/antes are eating you alive.

Now obviously if this was the WSOP Main Event and you're playing against a solid pro you throw away KQ suited with the quickness on your suggest board, but again an important factor is who's doing the shoving? Do they shove frequently? Are they a LAG tard or TAG? Could be facing a set of 6s or 7s maybe pocket kings, flush draw, straight draw, 67 two pair, and etc. Know the player & their range and you got a better shot at making that call or fold.

I deliberately left out any specific read because thats what I meant, youre 100BB deep, and the pot is only 30BB... The point im making is sometimes you find a fold, in a cash game you can get it in there, because you have outs etc, but when youre in such a strong position in the mid-late stages of a tourney, its kinda meh. Is he bluffing 50% of the time in that situation?

edit: obviously youre looking to play to win, and a 200bb stack is gonna be awesome, but I know im good enough to make a better situation for myself if i have 90bb at that stage, I know theres gonna be short stacks I can bully and get some decent pots with other large stacks..
 
Samango

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...

For example if I've 8 outs (open straight) then my odds of making this by the river are 2.17:1. Originally if the pot were $100 I would have bet $85 in this situation to offer my odds, but then if it goes to the next street... I'll have to bet again...

However, perhaps the whole point of betting the 2.17:1 odds is to try to get opponent to fold as well? Because they ARE your odds whether you hit or not. So if they call, it's obviously profitable for them, meaning they have those odds or better (hypothetically speaking). ...

OK, as you say you have 8 outs and this gives you 2.17:1 or 31% to hit by the river(I prefer percentages, although with a little practice you will soon think of this (31%)as about 2:1 anyway).
One advantage of percentage is that you can use the 2&4 rule to quickly calculate rough odds. Multiply your 8 outs by 2 to get 16% chance of hitting your out in one street (by the turn) or multiply by 4 to get 32% aproxx odds of hitting in 2 streets (flop to river).
As you have correctly noticed you should always be working with the one street 16% chance if you may face a bet on the turn and you would only use the 4x (32%) if one of you is all-in on the flop. Only in this instance would you genuinely be calculating your odds over 2 streets.

Now, in your example you suggest that you would bet $85 into a $100 pot when you are drawing to a straight.
First of all the figure is way too high, if you bet just over half pot you are providing the odds of 2:1.

But much more important is that this more something that you might do when you have the best hand and wish to prevent someone else drawing their flush or straight.

If you have top pair and top kicker or a set for example, but there are two spades on the board, you might bet over half the pot to make it unfavourable for your opponent to draw to the flush (of course over one street it is actually less than half pot)
The important point here is that if you are the one with a draw, then probably the best line for you is a free card. If you check, and your card comes you have a great hand, if it doesn't come you still have another street and you haven't risked any more chips.

Of course if you have great draw, a bet may push your opponent off their hand completely, you win there and then and that is a valid play, but you certainly shouldn't feel that you have to bet to draw.
 
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rhombus

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18outs turn and river combine is 62.44% chance

but if using your way is 72%
Or you could use a modified rule of 4 and 2 where you subtact -1 for every out over 8
so 9 outs is 36-1 =35 Actual 34.97%
10 outs 40-2 = 38 Actual 38.39%
18 outs 72-10 = 62 Actual 62.44%

:D
 
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