Think im gettin the odds thing down.

Okay, i think im gettin the odd things down. If im wrong, please correct me.

Okay, say i've got.... A 3 of clubs.

Flop comes 4c 5 c 10d

So i got 9 outs for the flush, and 3 more outs for the 2 for the straight.

So thats 12 outs, so I've got a 48% chance of improving my hand on the turn? And a 24% chance on improving it on the river?

Yeah against AT thats about right, but you've worded it wrong. A little less than 48% over next 2 cards (not on turn) and a little more than 24% to hit river if you miss the turn. Against an overpair you'd obviously have 3 aces too, and a set you'd have the original # of outs (minus the 10c) but could fall back behind so your odds drop. You could also be way ahead of a lesser draw. TJ of clubs would be about the same as AT because you lose 2 clubs but gain 3 aces.

ok.

Lets say someone goes all in. Would it be right to call with those odds? Or should i fold?

With the money in the pot you would have pot odds against almost any hand (possibly all if the pot is big) so you should call...but in a tournament you could fold this if you were in a situation where you didn't need/want to flip for all/most of your chips.

Michael69 said:

Okay, i think im gettin the odd things down. If im wrong, please correct me.

Okay, say i've got.... A 3 of clubs.

Flop comes 4c 5 c 10d

So i got 9 outs for the flush, and 3 more outs for the 2 for the straight.

So thats 12 outs, so I've got a 48% chance of improving my hand on the turn? And a 24% chance on improving it on the river?

Click to expand...

Not quite right. You're right about the 12 outs, but wrong about your odds of improving on the next two streets.

You're doing the X2 and X4 quick calculations which are not precise but close enough.

After the flop, with 12 outs, you have a 48% chance of improving to the flush or the straight BY THE RIVER, not on the turn. Your chance of improving to the flush or straight on the turn is only 24% or so. So if you're going with the 48% odds, which is about an even shot, you have o be willing to call the turn, even if your card misses. You might have this situation in a tourney where an all-in will give you the right odds and you're committing all the way to the river. But if your turn card misses, then you are left with only 24% odds on the river, or 3 to 1 against you. If the turn misses, are you going to chase a big bet on the turn? You need to know that before you commit.

Another thing to think about is whether your hand is likely to be the best hand, even if you do hit.

Gary

oh okay thank you. So i basically got it right, but just worded it wrong.

No, it's a little more than that.

It's a mistake to rely on the odds of hitting by the river if a missed turn and a bet will drive you out. All you're really buying after the flop is a chance to see the turn. It's an important strategy distinction. So unless you plan on playing all the way to the river no matter what, just forget about those odds.

glworden said:

No, it's a little more than that.

It's a mistake to rely on the odds of hitting by the river if a missed turn and a bet will drive you out. All you're really buying after the flop is a chance to see the turn. It's an important strategy distinction. So unless you plan on playing all the way to the river no matter what, just forget about those odds.

Click to expand...

Even that's not quite right. It's not a matter of whether you are planning to go to the river or not, it's a matter of whether there will be no more betting on the turn, or virtually no more betting. If you're planning to go to the river but there's lots of chips left in everyone's stack yet, planning to go that far isn't the determining factor.

Most common situation; one of you is all in. Alternatively, if one of you is close to being all in and the remaining effective stack is not enough to give you worse than 4:1 odds to call the turn. And then it gets complicated again if there's more than two of you still in the hand and only one person (not you) is all in.


But in simple form, don't worry about the 48% chance at the turn unless that's going to be the end of the betting.

go all in. or better yet listen to your guts..feel them..

this was interesting, i haven't gotten thet far yet, but i'm aware of my odds, i guess i'm not calculating enough. anyway, thanks for bringing the info to my attention, i'm still working on my outs, haven't gotten to percentages yet.
sounds like a goood hand to me, i'd take a chance.