re: Poker & Think im gettin the odds thing down.
Originally Posted by Michael69
Okay, i think im gettin the odd things down. If im wrong, please correct me.
Okay, say i've got.... A 3 of clubs.
Flop comes 4c 5 c 10d
So i got 9 outs for the flush, and 3 more outs for the 2 for the straight.
So thats 12 outs, so I've got a 48% chance of improving my hand on the turn? And a 24% chance on improving it on the river?
Not quite right. You're right about the 12 outs, but wrong about your odds of improving on the next two streets.
You're doing the X2 and X4 quick calculations which are not precise but close enough.
After the flop, with 12 outs, you have a 48% chance of improving to the flush or the straight BY THE RIVER, not on the turn. Your chance of improving to the flush or straight on the turn is only 24% or so. So if you're going with the 48% odds, which is about an even shot, you have o be willing to call the turn, even if your card misses. You might have this situation in a tourney where an all-in will give you the right odds and you're committing all the way to the river. But if your turn card misses, then you are left with only 24% odds on the river, or 3 to 1 against you. If the turn misses, are you going to chase a big bet on the turn? You need to know that before you commit.
Another thing to think about is whether your hand is likely to be the best hand, even if you do hit.