Steaming. Call me a donkey or help me figure out what I'm doing wrong.
Ok. So, the backstory.
I'm a decently consistent winner at the $2 SnG's on FT. More than half the time I'm in the money, and ROI's something like 20-30%.
I get my posterior handed to me in the $5s. Consistently. My graph looks like a ski slope. A nice steady decline, with a few small bumps just to keep it interesting.
Now. Either I'm a nit who is just less nitty than most of the $2 players, or I'm spectacularly unlucky. My inner mathematician tells
me 1) I probably am a nit and 2) I have been unlucky, but there's probably some stupid in there I can't see yet.
To wit, the major moves of a representative tourney:
Limp from the SB with A-rag. 4 see the flop, which is A97. I bet the pot with top pair, get raised the same amount (I bet 160, raised to 320), which I call. I don't like it, but it feels like odds
dictate a call. The turn is a K, putting 3 hearts on the board. Check check. Rivers a 6 for 2 pair. which I bet, losing to 777. 1/3 of my stack gone. I can see how this one was probably not played well. Then again, opp's only 6% to have a pair, and if he does have one, he's only 12% to hit the set on the flop, so I lost to something that should happen about 1% of the time. The other 99, I should have had him.
Next hand we're down to 5 players and I limp with QTs and am just playing the blinds and am in position. I pair the T and the blinds check with an A on the board. I bet the pot and get one caller. Turn's a blank, so I bet again and get called again. River's a Q giving me 2 pair. Villain bets 1/4 pot, which I'm not folding with 2 pair. He had a gutshot straight draw. I'm back to my starting 1500 chips.
Next hand, I'm BB with K-middle-suited and check an unraised pot with only the button left. Flop a flush draw. Min bet, villain calls. The turn fills my flush. Min bet again, and called. The river gives my villain a straight. I bet, he reraises all in and I send him home. +900 chips.
Next. medium pair in the BB. Everyone folds to the SB who raises to 3BB. I reraise to 9BB and get called. Villain now has half his stack in play. I have about 1/4th. The board brings overcards, he goes all in and I let it go, figuring he probably has me beat. -540 chips. Still above start.
Next. 2BB raise UTG with A6s with 5 players left. Only the BB calls. I pair my ace on the flop. Villain checks, I bet about 85% of the pot. Villain reraises all in, which is so little more I have to call. He has a pair of queens vs my aces with 2 cards to go. He pairs his other pocket card and I don't, losing half my stack. He had 5 outs twice, so I was about 3:1 to win, right? Grr.
I lose the other half when I get KK in the SB and raise 3BB -praying- it'll look like a steal. Villain puts me all in, which I happily call. His A2o beats my KK, putting me out. I think I'm about 2:1 on that, so I'm out of the tourament on a 3:1 followed by a 2:1 beat. Unless my math's bad, 92+% of the time I should win at least one of those.
Anything obviously stupid there? One tourney going like this doesn't bother me, but we're talking about dozens and I'm getting to the point where I feel like simple variance doesn't explain it. I'm making some mistake that the $2 tables aren't exploiting.
It *feels* like there's way too much of me getting chips in the middle with the best hand and somebody hitting their miracle card.
Suggestions on how I can analyze my play (I'm using PT3 and can roll my own code to analyze directly from the database if needed) to figure out either what I'm doing wrong, or how I can at least break even at these tables would be appreciated. I suppose I can do like above and figure out that the hands that put me out were statistically very unlikely to do so. That puts me back to calling this just variance, though.
I wonder if I'm not being aggressive enough. The $5 tables do seem more aggressive, but I'm still getting called anyway, so the net effect of raising more seems to be that I get fewer chances to not get sucked out on, and since I DO seem to get sucked out on more often than is statistically reasonable, it seems -EV.
Do I need to call more? I *know* people are betting with air or weak hands sometimes, just by the frequency, but these are not small bets and I don't really want to coin flip half or more of my stack.
Now, for irony I moneyed in a $2 while writing this and barely paying attention to it.
So, ah, help.