Sick downswings or some leaks?

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ludde2009

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Hi everyone,

this is my graph for the last 40k hands i played

http://i41.tinypic.com/54ahye.png

As you can see, it's like a beautiful landscape with several mountaintops and several valleys.

I think there must be something wrong with my play, but I can't figure it out. I play relatively tight, 19 vpip and about 10 pfr.

The things that costs me most money are AA/KK/QQ losing many of the times i get it.

Other than that I don't really know what except tilt that can cause these, except huge leaks in my game. I can start a session +10 BIs and the next session i play i go minus 15 BIs.

I don't really want to spend my whole bankroll on HEM2 though, so i can't use the leakbuster...

Any tips?

Stats are like this
19 vpip
10.5 pfr
2.6 3bet
26 WTSD%
45 W$SD%
3 AGG
37 Agg%
43 Bet Flop%
52 flop cbet fold%

Any input on this would be appriciated.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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If you don't have HEM/PT3 how do you know your stats? Also that's a pretty steady downward trend from about 12K hands on. I'd say there is something wrong with your game. Are you playing FR or 6-max?
 
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ludde2009

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If you don't have HEM/PT3 how do you know your stats? Also that's a pretty steady downward trend from about 12K hands on. I'd say there is something wrong with your game. Are you playing FR or 6-max?

I do have the trial, which expires in 3 days.

And I can't really recall any major change i did to my game after the first 12k hands, which is the most annoying thing, that I know something is wrong, but I don't know what.

I play full ring tables at NL2$ and some shots at NL4$.

Current bankroll is at 106$ but rather see it growing to 200$ before i withdraw and purchase HEM2 full version.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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post some of your losing or winning hands on here so we can get a better idea of how you actually play.

The most obvious thing I can tell from your stats is that you're VPIP and PFR are too far apart meaning that you're limping a lot. Also, maybe the FR nits can help, but isn't 19% kinda loose for FR?
 
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ludde2009

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party poker $2 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1642366
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $0.67
BB: $0.97
UTG: $1.74
UTG+1: $0.84
MP1: $0.94
MP2: $4.41
Hero (CO): $2.25
BTN: $1.90

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with Q
spade.gif
K
heart.gif

UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.02, 2 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($0.09) J
heart.gif
J
club.gif
K
club.gif
(4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $0.02, Hero raises to $0.07, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.05

Turn: ($0.23) 8
diamond.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.12, UTG+1 raises to $0.75 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: $0.47
UTG+1 wins $0.45
(Rake: $0.02)





Hands like these, should they not be played at all? He was repping a jack/ pocket 8s pretty strong, so a fold was given on the turn.

But I do quite some of these CRs, can this be a costly leak? Just figured I will generate some fold equity against weaker hands, which they often fold.

I do Cbet a lot, can this be a downward trend? How many of the times must a cbet be winning the pot/hitting draws etc to be profitable? (in lets say a 5 BB bet into a 10 BB pot?)
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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1st don't post your hands to this thread. They'll get more attention in the HA forum.

As for the hand posted you need to be raising here preflop. It's a great spot to isolate the limpers. I'd make it .10 or .12c preflop.

Now as to your overall preflop stats. You're playing too many hands preflop. Try to bring your vpip number down into the 15-16% range. You're also limping or calling with too many hands. Try to bring your pfr up to the 13-14% range.

Continue posting hands.
 
MediaBLITZ

MediaBLITZ

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"The things that costs me most money are AA/KK/QQ losing many of the times i get it."

That could indicate an inability to recognize when you are behind or in danger after a flop/turn. Falling in love with a top/over pair is certainly a leak over the long haul because you will engage in big pots even though you only have one pair.

It could also indicate you are letting suck outs happen by not betting them like a top pair. You may see AA and have a strategy of luring players into the hand with a min raise or maybe even limping. Huge leak. It seems more profitable but if you look at it like this -
You have AA and minraise to 4 so you get four callers for 16 in the pot and you are 56% to win before the flop (where that 45 on the button hits 2 pair).
OR
You have AA and raise to 8 so you get two callers for 24 in the pot and you are 73% to win before the flop (where that 45 on the button folded because of your raise).

In other words do not think of your raise as something that is going to lose you money in the pot, but think of your raise as something that is going to increase your winning percentage (and more times than not put more money in the pot). Make sense?
 
dooydoo

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Any tips?

Stats are like this
19 vpip
10.5 pfr
2.6 3bet
26 WTSD%
45 W$SD%
3 AGG
37 Agg%
43 Bet Flop%
52 flop cbet fold%

Any input on this would be appriciated.

Your gap between pfr and vpip is too big. Try to minmize the gap there to no bigger than 5. 3 if probably great as a break even player. This means not calling as much pre. Fold those weak broadways, weak Ax, suited connectors etc more often. By having a large gap you are calling too much and x folding the flop too much and slowly bleeding money.

The best way to make money in poker is by being the pfr and having initiative.

Your won when saw showdown is too low. At the micros you make money at showdown by having the best hand. It seems you are getting there with 2nd best too often or making bad bluffs.

whats your flop cb, turn cb, fold to 3b.

One trick is to avoid marginal spots altogether and just capitalize on very +ev spots. If youre in a marginal spot, just fold and wait for an obvious great spot. There are tons of super ev spots at 2nl so just wait.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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When you talk about losing money with your big pairs, do you lose money overall with them or lose some big pots but still win overall. These are two very different things. The former, assuming a decent sample size, suggests that inability to get away from them is a major leak in your game. The latter is what your results should be.
 
MediaBLITZ

MediaBLITZ

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Any tips?

Stats are like this
19 vpip
10.5 pfr
2.6 3bet
26 WTSD%
45 W$SD%
3 AGG
37 Agg%
43 Bet Flop%
52 flop cbet fold%

Any input on this would be appriciated.

Your gap between pfr and vpip is too big. Try to minmize the gap there to no bigger than 5. 3 if probably great as a break even player. This means not calling as much pre. Fold those weak broadways, weak Ax, suited connectors etc more often. By having a large gap you are calling too much and x folding the flop too much and slowly bleeding money.
The best way to make money in poker is by being the pfr and having initiative.

In other words it is evident you are trying to be tight aggressive but you would benefit greatly by being tighter and aggressiver.

Your won when saw showdown is too low. At the micros you make money at showdown by having the best hand. It seems you are getting there with 2nd best too often or making bad bluffs.

You know this really supports not being able to get away from those big pairs. You have to seriously consider when you go to show down with a big preflop pair that never improved that you are probably walking on thin ice.

whats your flop cb, turn cb, fold to 3b.

One trick is to avoid marginal spots altogether and just capitalize on very +ev spots. If youre in a marginal spot, just fold and wait for an obvious great spot. There are tons of super ev spots at 2nl so just wait.
 
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ludde2009

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Alright, thanks a lot for the input guys.

I think I've found some leaks after analysing my hands after a session, I tend to presume people are bluffing more than they are. Also when stealing/restealing blinds the pots tend to get big, and it's some sort of mental block I have that I keep thinking they sit there on any 2, which makes me go to showdown with really weak hands (hands that I would fold any other spot than blinds/BTN).


I might be C-betting too often too since i have a 73% Flop CBet %
 
dooydoo

dooydoo

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At 2nl i dont expect you to get a lot of folds post flop as a lot of players will be stations adn call with any made hand, draw, overs, etc. Try cbetting for value bigger and cb bluff smaller and dont bluff as much. Just choose excellent boards to bluff like 553 or K72 etc. Dont 2 barrel bluff much either if at all.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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I might be C-betting too often too since i have a 73% Flop CBet %
It's a situational thing. There are players and situations you should c-bet more often than your overall figure of 73%, and others you should c-bet less. A relatively straightforward example of the former is when the opponent is a fit or fold type, especially when you have position and he checks to you. Otoh, you may want to consider c-betting somewhat less than your overall rate against calling stations.
 
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