Is my shove mathematically correct?

M

mariaque

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0.5/1NL

Hero
200bb

Villain
20bb

Villain is a donk/fish

Action folds to hero.Hero holds AsKh on the UTG+2 raises to 4,all fold to villain,calls in BTN

Flop 10c,7c,5d. Pot 9.5

Hero checks

Villain bets 2

Hero raising all in.Pot is now 25.5. Villain stack is 14

Villain call, showing QcJc

Turn : 5h
River : Ac

Villain calling range
55+,AKs,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,J10+,Air and garbage a few

Villain pot odds : 1.8/1
Villain card odds : 4/1

Villain gets wrong pot odd to call, but having 60 percent equity against hero(?)

Really quite lost at who is profitable in the long run.tq
 
Last edited:
vinnie

vinnie

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When I run the flop numbers I get 54.65% equity for the villain. This means it is impossible to offer him the wrong odds, every penny that goes in is more money for him and less for you.

I also get 27.5-14 (9.5+2+16) for the pot odds being offered. Which is like 1.96-1 and means he needs 33.7% equity to call correctly. He has way more than that and his call is easily correct.

Based on the exact hands, your shove was meh. You risk 16 to win 25.5, and need about 38% equity to get the right price. Technically, you had that (as you had about 45%). The problem is, against his range of possible hands, I doubt you do this well all the time. For example, if he has JJ (a hand any player can wake up with) you have less than 24% equity.

Also, your calling range given to villain is likely too wide. You think he is calling with QhJh here? Most of those should be limited to suited with clubs, not just suited.

I am away from my computer, but I can run the more specific range numbers later. Still, shove is not good. Villain would need to be really really spewy and stationy for it to show a profit. And, that might not be true. You are getting called only when in bad shape here. This is probably the best hand you could have been against, and you were still a dog.
 
C

CallmeFloppy

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I agree with Vinnie. You are making the calling range too wide.
 
vinnie

vinnie

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I ran this from my phone, but I think I picked optimistic-fish calling ranges. Basically any pair equal to or higher than bottom pair. Any flush draw including 3c2c (which is probably too weak), any open-ended straight draw. And any two overs headed by an Ace.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Sim.
528,660 trials (Exhaustive)
board: T♣ 7♣ 5♦

Hand | Pot equity
Askh | 27.76%
55+,cc,98,t,7,5,86,64,aj,aq,ak | 72.24%

As you can see, we have 28% equity when called by this very loose and weak range. I didn't factor in fold equity here (as he would be folding some hands that don't fit this range but he had preflop), but I don't think he is betting at the pot with those hand either. So, I think we show up against this range as a best case scenario and usually show up against a stronger range than this.
 
Last edited:
D

Dan Lucas

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I agree with Vinnie on this one. Plus, depending on opponent's bankroll, in a cash game he is always able to re-buy. Unless he puts you specifically on AcKc, he is taking a gamble, but his odds are right.
 
A

Attamo00

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The matemathic important to poker, but not FORGET the lucky players wins ever hqnd where love rng. :DDD so dont worry, 10\7 you win "this" hands and win a lot of cash to fish\donkey :)
 
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Chipsteal_jj

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Instead of shoving you could've raise-folded or even called. Since its a min-raise with such a small stack, the villain could be holding a monster here as well.
You have somewhat showdown value and I don't think the bluff raise was a good play.
 
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