This is a discussion on Should I Call The River 3 : 1 or Fold Cos V's Range Consist Of Too Little That I Beat within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; Hi guys,
This is my first post.
I have been trying to apply the frequency based thought process into my game and I have met with this
V could be calling two streets with TP type hands/AcXx/GUTSHOT/TWO PAIR, but I doubt they are strong since V limped preflop.
HERO betted FLOP and TURN for value.
HERO CHECKS RIVER because as mentioned, HERO hopes that V would check back his TP type hands for showdown.
If V bets big here, hero would fold.
But V betted half pot and we get 3 : 1, and 3 : 1 means we only need to be right 25% of the time and our equity is 33% so does that make the call right according to Ed Miller's frequency based poker?
Please advise ^^
29th August 2016, 11:24 AM
Online Poker at: ACR
Have you put in actual ranges and hands to see how much you are beating and how much beat you? There is a lot of missing information needed here. Was this a full table? What stats did UTG have? Were they positionally aware (which makes the strength of their hand higher)?
Limping UTG is usually medium/small pairs and Broadway cards. It is sometimes suited connectors and other random stuff, but pairs and big cards are a large portion of that range. After you lead flop and turn, how many of the small pairs are left? How much of his range is two pair hands or Jx hands?
You should be able to find those numbers yourself. I am willing to venture that we are not good here even 25% of the time. We might not even be good here 10% of the time unless this villian bluffs rivers a lot. I think the two pair hands we beat check this back more often than they reopen the betting.
Edit: Also be aware that the frequency based approach is an average over time, not a rule that must be obeyed every single hand. Some board runouts, villian actions, and other situations will demand higher fold rates. You make up for that in other spots where things are not so bad for you. If the board runs out 4 of a suit and you get raised on the river at 10nl, you let it go. It doesnt matter if it is a minraise and that you're supposed to call a certain percentage in those spots.