This is a discussion on sets v flush draw within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; If your sat with a set of any card value are you really happy getting it all in when your sure the villian can only 


#1




sets v flush draw
If your sat with a set of any card value are you really happy getting it all in when your sure the villian can only be playing with a flush draw?
I was all in favour of having the set every time, but my heart jumps through loops when it occurs and i'm never happy. It seems such a coin flip situation and i never feel truly ahead. 
#3




Quote:
I believe it's closer to 60% to win, but never the less, I always try to get my money in this situation since you gonna win more than you lose. 
#4




Ok were allin on flop. Hero has 55, villian has Ac7c Flop is Qc 5c 8d. My math is as follows:
villian has 9/45 outs to catch his flush going into turn, BUT 1 (8c) gives you a boat, so its no good. So thats 8/45 outs going into turn. If he misses his flush on the turn, that card is no longer good for him. Example: turn is 10s the 10c would give him a flush but it would also give you a full house. That gives him 7/45 outs going into river If he makes his flush on turn, say its the 3c. He has a flush but now you have a draw now, if the board pairs you have a full house or quads. So board is Qc 5c 8d 3c, you have 3 Q's, 3 8's and 3 3's that will give you a full house. Also the case 5 would give you quads. So even if he hits his flush on turn you have 10 outs that will give you the pot. Thats better than his draw!!! Moral of story: Take the set every time, get it in there and find solace in the fact that you KNOW its a good situation to be in!!! 
#5




re: Poker & sets v flush draw
Quote:
Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 26.465% 26.46% 00.00% 786 0.00 { Ac7c } Hand 1: 73.535% 73.54% 00.00% 2184 0.00 { 55 } 
#6




Love to see the math shown here. Even without the math, you just gotta know (whether from experience or just brief logic) that the set is always favored. Obviously you will lose often enough that you will remember the painful times. But run a million trials and you become extremely wealthy. Won't find too many situations where you can get someone to put their money all in with you so far ahead of them. Gotta grab 70/30 when you can and smile. Good luck out there.

#7




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#8




Flopped set means "you ain't goin nowhere" and get all your chips into the pot unless you have a read that your opponent has a higher set or flopped straight, which rarely occurs. I've folded a set during the flop once in my life and that's because i played in a crooked home game.
I sometimes prefer sets more than flopped straights. When I have flopped straight, someone has a flush draw and i'm done for if they hit it. With sets, you always have outs. 
#9




I haven't seen too many of my sets destroyed by flush draws (it certainly has happened, though). I haven't seen too many people go all in on flush draws (with nothing else to their hand). The question is, if there is a possible flush draw after the flop comes and you have a set, do you usually push all in? I know I usually don't. I either slow play or make a decent bet. If it gets called, then you know you might have a chaser (and hopefully the next card isn't what they're looking for). Meh. Sticky situations.

#10




re: Poker & sets v flush draw
its always nice to go ALL in with a set. and yes, you always fear from the flush draw but the fact of the matter is, YOUR AHEAD!!!
most good players wont bet on a flush draw when they know they are up against a big hand, unless the pot odds are outstanding. im alwyas happy to have a set vs the flush because you can always get a boat, the best they can have is a flush, and they wont even get it most of the time. being hasty and calling ALL IN with a flush is a bad move in my mind, unless you have a straight draw or a pair to go along. 
#11




Can I ask a clarification about the math? The pokerstove says it's 26.465 probability of hero winning. I'm having trouble arriving at this number.
My probability calculation yields: (8/45)*(34/44)+(30/45)*(7/44) because there are 8 c's if we eliminate 8c and if we got a flush on the turn we must eliminate 3 Q's, 3 8's, 1 5's, and 3 of whatever card we got on the turn for a total of 10 possibilities eliminated from 44. Then if we do not get a flush on turn, we must also eliminate the 3 Q's, 1 5's, 3 8's to get 4587= possibilities in order to get a chance to win in the river. In the river there are 7 c's left for us to get a winning flush. The problem is my calculation yields 24.34%. I know it's a small difference, but I'm really bothered. Can anyone help me with this? 