H
Hingo
Rising Star
Bronze Level
Hello guys. New to this site and have a few questions:
I've been playing poker casually over the past 1-2 years at casinos and never really took into account calculating exact pot odds during the hand. I just kind of estimated the size of the pot and and the size of the bet....didn't really use the rule of 4 and 2. Was this a huge misstep?!!
Anyways, over the past few months I've been looking at the rule of 4 and 2 a bit more. How accurate is this method? I mean, the way I've been calculating my odds in the past few months goes something like this -- say for example you have an open ended straight draw on the flop (8 outs) and hitting the straight would give you the nuts; therefore your chance of winning is 8/47 or approx. 1/6 (17%) meaning out of 6 hands in the same situation, you would win once and lose five. As such, if the pot is six times (break ever) or greater (profit) the size of the bet to be called, I'll make the call.
Now here's where I'm a bit confused. After the flop, based on the rule of 4 and 2, the chance to hit the straight is 32% (8*4). Why do your odds suddenly double to ~1/3 (32%)? There's only 8 cards out of 47 on the turn
(8/47 = 17%) that will help you make your straight. If the turn misses, there's still only 8 cards that will help you (8/46) which is still approx. 17%. Going by the rule of 4 and 2, saying you have 32% chance kind of seems like saying there are 16 cards that can help you out?
Let's compare this to the lotto. Say the odds to hit the lotto is 1:100M. If you buy $2, now you have two chances to win (same as the turn and river?), but the odds for each $1 line is still 1:100M. Is this the same scenario or am I approaching this the wrong way. Thoughts and comments please.
PS - Sorry for the long post.
I've been playing poker casually over the past 1-2 years at casinos and never really took into account calculating exact pot odds during the hand. I just kind of estimated the size of the pot and and the size of the bet....didn't really use the rule of 4 and 2. Was this a huge misstep?!!
Anyways, over the past few months I've been looking at the rule of 4 and 2 a bit more. How accurate is this method? I mean, the way I've been calculating my odds in the past few months goes something like this -- say for example you have an open ended straight draw on the flop (8 outs) and hitting the straight would give you the nuts; therefore your chance of winning is 8/47 or approx. 1/6 (17%) meaning out of 6 hands in the same situation, you would win once and lose five. As such, if the pot is six times (break ever) or greater (profit) the size of the bet to be called, I'll make the call.
Now here's where I'm a bit confused. After the flop, based on the rule of 4 and 2, the chance to hit the straight is 32% (8*4). Why do your odds suddenly double to ~1/3 (32%)? There's only 8 cards out of 47 on the turn
(8/47 = 17%) that will help you make your straight. If the turn misses, there's still only 8 cards that will help you (8/46) which is still approx. 17%. Going by the rule of 4 and 2, saying you have 32% chance kind of seems like saying there are 16 cards that can help you out?
Let's compare this to the lotto. Say the odds to hit the lotto is 1:100M. If you buy $2, now you have two chances to win (same as the turn and river?), but the odds for each $1 line is still 1:100M. Is this the same scenario or am I approaching this the wrong way. Thoughts and comments please.
PS - Sorry for the long post.