The relevance of poker maths in online play

J

JKawai

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I've been getting my head round the subject of bet sizing and pot odds and what-have-you, and just managed to understand it. But then I think; these are only useful tools if you opponents abide by them to the letter also.

For example, the idea of offering your opponent poor odds to drive them out of a draw. If you bet 3/4 of the pot (2.33:1) and their draw odds are 5:1 say, you'd hope that they'd fold. But that's based on the prerequisite that they are even playing with consideration to odds.

Do you find it is more useful when you play the higher stakes games?

This question has probably been asked a thousand times, if so, apologies
 
BluffMeAllIn

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Hi jk, typically when they are calling without the correct odds its there mistake and of course allows us to get max value from our opponents because in the long run them calling is incorrect and will be +EV for us.

In regards to being more useful or not at higher stakes it depends on what you are asking specifically about. In regards to do people at higher stakes tend to be more aware of odds and follow them to assist with their decisions then yes....but you will still get those who don't as you will also get those at lower stakes who will.

What you need to be looking at in this situation are the player types, a fish is a fish at any stake essentially but obviously as stakes progress the regs will have more knowledge and be more aware of correct odds etc.
 
Fknife

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For example, the idea of offering your opponent poor odds to drive them out of a draw. If you bet 3/4 of the pot (2.33:1) and their draw odds are 5:1 say, you'd hope that they'd fold. But that's based on the prerequisite that they are even playing with consideration to odds.

You want them to draw because when they finally hit one of their outs, a pot that they win wont cover all that money that they lost all those times when they called and missed a draw. Thats how you make money.

I think I've already answered your question more specifically in one of your previous threads.
 
okeedokalee

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Poker Math That Matters by Owen Gaines will help answer your questions
I used to play fairly high level chess, but believe me poker played correctly at higher levels requires just as much deep thinking and at the same time the stress of risking money.
If your decisions are +EV more often than they are minus EV you will finish ahead.
You are relying on your opponent to make incorrect decisions and should welcome the fact they have no knowledge of odds.
 
PokerPete

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^ All the above...


For example, the idea of offering your opponent poor odds to drive them out of a draw.
ummm...no.
While your opponent giving you poor odds should drive you out, you
actually want folks to call when they don't have odds to make it "worth their while"
...that's what all the other posters are getting at with "+EV"...
or "Plus expected value" (and -EV for your opponent making the call)

If you bet 3/4 of the pot (2.33:1) and their draw odds are 5:1 say, you'd hope that they'd fold

...the basic idea of folding when you don't have the odds is that it'll cost you (or them) more in the long run to call than fold...

to put it in hard numbers:
In your example, villain 5:1 odds (lose 5 for every 1 win)
Pot $100 (to make it simple) you bet $75
Let's assume your opponent calls the $75, hits the draw and wins...
Ugh, you think, why didn't that ____ (fish, donkey, other derogatory term of choice) fold???!!!! He didn't have odds to make that call!

But wait...it's not about the one hand...

What if the same guy (or other people) make the same call over and over again?

remember over the long haul, your wins should be around 5 for every 1 you lose...

so six times you bet $75 into $100 and you lose one of those times...
six times you opponent calls $75 and wins once

your opponent put in 6*$75 or $450 more than just folding...
the one time your opponent won, he won $250 back (his call of $75, your bet of $75 and the original pot of $100)
...by calling all 6, the five losing times cost him $200 more than if he folded all six times :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

...so over the long haul, you'll win more by making this bet...whether he calls of folds is up to him...and how much more he wants to lose to you
...of course this assumes you have the winning hand if the draw doesn't hit...
 
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JKawai

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I get the gist now. But jesus christ this is reminding me of how much I struggled at maths at school despite excelling in it. I can understand the concepts like sand in my hand then in practise it's... gone

Sigh
 
PokerPete

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I get the gist now. But jesus christ this is reminding me of how much I struggled at maths at school despite excelling in it. I can understand the concepts like sand in my hand then in practise it's... gone

Sigh
:D
...as long as you can either calc the odds you need to call and fold if you don't have them...
...and calc the bet size to take away odds for your opponent to call based upon what you think they might have...and bet at least this amount
the rest is easy...call when you have odds, fold when you don't
and size your bet to take away the odds when you believe your ahead...
...and most importantly never, ever size your bet to give them odds to call...
this can actually cost you more :eek: :eek: :eek:

Same situation, but this time you under bet just $10 (10%) into the pot of $100...and what should your opponent do?

Well you're giving them odds if they have that 5:1 draw...
so they should call! But why? :confused:

take a moment and follow this carefully:

so six times you bet $10 into $100 and you lose one of those times when the 5:1 draw hits... ( of course this is averaged over a very,very large data set
- with smaller number of times, he may win more time or less times, but over all we expect the number to approach 1 out of 6 the more hands that are played this way)
six times you opponent calls $10 and wins once

your opponent put in 6*$10 or $60 more than just folding...
the one time your opponent won, he won $120 back (his call of $10, your bet of $10 and the original pot of $100)
...by calling all 6, the five losing times cost him $60 less (or more correctly, he wins $60 more) than if he folded all six times :eek: :eek: :eek: Yikes!
 
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