Originally Posted by 10058765
No,no...what you seem to forget is not every out locks the hand and some turn cards will take away some outs.
Because of that it's ~66%
No, I do realize that there is the possibly of the tie and backdoor boat as well. 4 squared is where the main difference is (2%). Don't want to get that involved into the maths accounting for that if the OP did not even realize he was ahead here, and showing the op how it gets to be that, might be a bit overwhelming. While I admit giving him a simple formula for him to win, if he hits his out without accounting for the other is not the best idea, baby steps to get him there is not a bad idea imo.