Question RE Card Odds & Pot Odds

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SaadOmizer

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Hi everybody, as I mentioned in my introduction I feel I have always struggled to understand the mathematical concept in poker and especially regarding immediate card and pot odds

I feel I am managing to get to grips with the concepts but can anybody here confirm in my theory and thought process, as I understand it is correct?

Card Odds

For the flop to turn as an example with a middle flush draw

1. Deck - Known Cards = Unknown Cards. 1. (D)52 - (KC)5 = (UKC)47

2. Unknown Cards - Num of outs = Non Outs 2. (UKC)47 - (O)9 = (NO)38

3. Non Outs / Outs = Ratio Odds = 3. (NO) 38 / (O) 9 = 4.2:1


Pot Odds

1. Pot / Call = Ratio Odds 1. (P) 0.24 / (C) 0.06 = 4:1


Compare

Card Odds > pot odds = Fold
Pot Odds > Card Odds = Call




Is that correct?
 
DrazaFFT

DrazaFFT

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You are basically right, you need better pot odds than hand odds, or card odds to your call be profitable, so whenever you hit your hand you will win more money than you lost all times when you missed your hand, in a long run of course...

now the more you play the more decisions will be automatic as you will memorize most odds already and you will not need to calculate it every time..
 
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SwiftHax

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Also, don't forget that when someone goes all-in on the flop your hand odds increase because you're paying a single bet to see two cards.

For example someone shoves on the flop and you are holding a flush draw. The pot odds are 3:1. Your hand odds now are 2:1 instead of 4:1, so naturally, you have to call.
 
Arjonius

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You haven't factored in the quality of your outs. For instance, drawing to the nut flush and to a baby one aren't the same. You have the same number of outs to improve, but they won't win equally often.
 
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SaadOmizer

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You haven't factored in the quality of your outs. For instance, drawing to the nut flush and to a baby one aren't the same. You have the same number of outs to improve, but they won't win equally often.

How would I take that into account then?
 
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SaadOmizer

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Also, don't forget that when someone goes all-in on the flop your hand odds increase because you're paying a single bet to see two cards.

For example someone shoves on the flop and you are holding a flush draw. The pot odds are 3:1. Your hand odds now are 2:1 instead of 4:1, so naturally, you have to call.

So I take one from my figured out pot odds?
 
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SwiftHax

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You haven't factored in the quality of your outs. For instance, drawing to the nut flush and to a baby one aren't the same. You have the same number of outs to improve, but they won't win equally often.
And how exactly would I do that?
 
Arjonius

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How would I take that into account then?
By estimating how much you should discount any outs that won't give you the nuts.

For instance, say you have 23s and flop a flush draw. You have 9 outs to make your flush, but obviously, your flush won't beat a any other flush or better. Let's say you estimate when you do make your flush, it will win 90% of the time. 9 outs x 90% = 8.1 effective clean outs.

As for estimating how much to discount your outs, that can involve your opponents' styles, your reads on them, the board texture, etc. It's not simple, but if you don't discount your outs, you'll over-value the strength of your hand.
 
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SaadOmizer

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So are we saying multiply the puts by the amount we estimate we win the pot with out the nuts?

For example we estimate we win 80% of the time. 9outs x 80% = 7.2 clean outs?

Then we use our new found outs as the formula 38/7 - 5.4?
 
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DunningKruger

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That's what he's saying. It works too, if your opponent has gone all in. If you're not facing an all in bet then listening to this will cost you a lot of money since hitting your hand and then losing a showdown is obv not the same as when your draws brick. The numbers in your post imply you're not speaking solely about all in bets (unless villain is playing with a stack of like 14 cents) and so a warning here is in order about the danger of actually doing what he suggests. In any situation where you're counting up outs there's going to be a minimum of one round of betting still to come in the hand... unless your opponent is already all in ofc.
 
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hffjd2000

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It depends.

Many factors of either fold or call and those mathematical odds are just one factor.

You can break the "Compare rule" you mention above since poker is situational.
Example of situations are:
-implied odds
-card odds and pot odds are near close in figure.

Goodluck.
 
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SaadOmizer

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Again the more things I seem to read about this the more it confuses me. I was just reading an article from another website and it says to compare your pot odds to your equity and then convert your equity percentage to a ratio so as we can compare pot odds and equity(card odds?)

Am I correct in thinking that the equity is my card odds?

And if I already work out my card odds as a ratio can I just skip working out the equity part and compare my card odds ratio to my pot odds ratio?
 
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