Question on phil gorden's little green book

Hey guys,

been reading this book and i love it but i have a couple of questions on how he calculated some of these odds. This is the main one i've been struggling with, he gives a chart laying out his chances:

My opponent
My hand
The board
My chances
8s 8d
KQh
Jc Td 2h
55.3


he says his outs are that he has two overcards to the board, straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. I counted how many outs he has: 2 queens, 2 kings, and 4 aces which is 8. Problem is, how do i calculate the flush odds with two missing cards? Thanks to anyone who can help!

with 2 cards (obvously) to come a backdoor flush draw is worth 1.5 outs

Although in the above example I wouldnt count the queens or kings as full outs because if an ace lands then you may well hit your top pair and still loose to a pair of aces.

So I would only count the two kings and 2 queens as 1-2 outs in total.

^^ ignore what i just said!! An ace would make a straight, counterfitting a pair of aces, so in this case the outs for K and Q do not need any form of discounting

3 Kings, 3 Queens, 4aces, 4- Nines, and sometimes they'll add one out for backdoor flush draw = 15outs.
(rough estimate of percentage chance of winning hand = (15 x 4) - {(15-(15-9)} = 60 - 6 = 54%

That's a great book to read. I think Phil's a good writer and gets the basics and more to the reader in an interesting read. His 'Little Blue Book' is also worth reading (I've read both of these books at least 5x each). He has a couple of other books out also, but not as good as these two. I asked Phil last week actually, if he was contemplating putting out another book to which he replied, "Sorry... no more books in my future. There's nothing left to write about." Watched Phil take down Poker After Dark last night... way to go Phil.. and thanks for the books!
GL!!

The rough calculation for figuring out percentage chance of winning based on 'clean outs' is actually one that Phil suggests in his books.

lol stu; i just about to say...

oh yeah and i figured out that just forgot to count the 9s!

Poker Orifice

(15 x 4) - {(15-(15-9)} = 60 - 6 = 54%

Click to expand...

whats the 15-(15-9) bit about

I can gather its regarding discounting, but where does the 9 come from?

yeah i didnt get that 15-9 thing either

nevermind i get you on the discounting

TBH, I cant really see why you would discount in this situation.

15 is the number of outs.. id say 15.5 (as I use 1.5 outs for a backdoor flush draw). But 15 is the outs.

4 is from the rule of 2 and 4.

Multiply the number of outs by 2 if there is only one card to come and 4 if there are 2 cards to come. This gives you your outs in the form of a percentage

so if i had 10 outs on the flop my percent would be 40% ?

Click to expand...

Yes

the exact value is 38.39%, but the rule of 4 is close enough for practical purposes

Stu_Ungar said:

Yes

the exact value is 38.39%, but the rule of 4 is close enough for practical purposes

Click to expand...

wait isn't the equation like

47(cards left)-10(outs)= 37

37/10(outs)=3.7

so isnt the percentage just 37%?

no

I just copied and pasted this from another website, its using 6 outs rather than 10, but you should see what to do

The number 47 represents the remaining cards left in the deck after the flop (52 total cards, minus 2 in our hand and 3 on the flop = 47 remaining cards). Even though there might not technically be 47 cards remaining, we do calculations assuming we are the only players in the game. To illustrate, here is a two-overcard draw, which has 3 outs for each overcard, giving a total of 6 outs for a top-pair draw:

Click to expand...

No these are the percentages of your hand improving to a betterhand (which you think is likely to win)

The percentages you see on TV are the percentages of the hand winning (you can only do this if you know what your opponent is holding)

If you want to see examples of these, download pokerstove and put some numbers in.

Stu_Ungar said:

Poker Orifice



whats the 15-(15-9) bit about

I can gather its regarding discounting, but where does the 9 come from?

Click to expand...

The rule of 2 4 . When we have more than 9outs it isn't as accurate...so.. for any outs 'more than 9', we calculate our equation (in this case 15 x 4) the we subtract 9 from 15 (15 - 9) = 6 Subtract the 6 from 60 & we get a closer estimate.
The '9' is >. any outs more than 9 we subtract from our total.
(pretty sure it's in Phil's book but it's been a couple of yrs. since I've read it)

Poker Orifice said:

I asked Phil last week actually, if he was contemplating putting out another book to which he replied, "Sorry... no more books in my future. There's nothing left to write about." Watched Phil take down Poker After Dark last night... way to go Phil.. and thanks for the books!
GL!!

Click to expand...

????

[ame="http://www.amazon.com/Phil-Gordons-Little-Gold-Book/dp/1451641591/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1316352525&sr=8-1"]Amazon.com: Phil Gordon's Little Gold Book: Advanced Lessons for Mastering Poker 2.0 (9781451641592): Phil Gordon: Books[/ame]

lol holy old thread batman

My bad - should've checked dates especially since I know Orafice is on his game.