Question about odds and outs

ph_il · Sep 30, 2008

In a ring game, is it always correct to chase your outs for any situation if you are getting the right odds to do so?

Example:
5nl, full ring, and everyone has 100 BBs.

-UTG raises it to .15, he is a tight player. You play him on a regular basis.
-MP calls the .15, you know nothing about this player. Its folded to you.
-You're on the button with 8s9s and make the call. The blinds fold.

There is .52 in the pot. The flop is 9c 2d 4h.

-UTG bets out .05
-MP folds
-You feel like your opponent is either setting a trap and is trying to get you to raise. You know from previous games, he always C/R his sets and the board is too dry for him to have hit 2 pair. He doesn't bet out if there is an overcard to his hand. So, you figure he has you beat with 1010-AA at this point and raising will only get him to come over the top of you with 1010+.

However, you figure you have 5 clean outs (2 9s, 3 10s) and you can take the lead if you hit either a 9 or a 10 on the turn. With 5 outs, you have 8.4:1 odds off hitting and you're getting 11.4:1 on your money to call.

If you can safely assume your opponent is just holding an over pair and nothing else and a turned 2 pair or trips will give give you the best hand, is this a profitable call you should always make? What if you only have 2 outs, but you're still getting the correct odds to call? Should you make the call every time?

Aldwin · Sep 30, 2008

I'don't know if it's a profitable pot, but I would bet half a pot and see his reaction. If he calls it could be a trap, if he re-raises then fold, but perhaps he folds...

Steveg1976 · Sep 30, 2008

philthy said:
In a ring game, is it always correct to chase your outs for any situation if you are getting the right odds to do so?

Example:
5nl, full ring, and everyone has 100 BBs.

-UTG raises it to .15, he is a tight player. You play him on a regular basis.
-MP calls the .15, you know nothing about this player. Its folded to you.
-You're on the button with 8s9s and make the call. The blinds fold.

There is .52 in the pot. The flop is 9c 2d 4h.

-UTG bets out .05
-MP folds
-You feel like your opponent is either setting a trap and is trying to get you to raise. You know from previous games, he always C/R his sets and the board is too dry for him to have hit 2 pair. He doesn't bet out if there is an overcard to his hand. So, you figure he has you beat with 1010-AA at this point and raising will only get him to come over the top of you with 1010+.

However, you figure you have 5 clean outs (2 9s, 3 10s) and you can take the lead if you hit either a 9 or a 10 on the turn. With 5 outs, you have 8.4:1 odds off hitting and you're getting 11.4:1 on your money to call.

If you can safely assume your opponent is just holding an over pair and nothing else and a turned 2 pair or trips will give give you the best hand, is this a profitable call you should always make? What if you only have 2 outs, but you're still getting the correct odds to call? Should you make the call every time?

The short answer is anytime you are offered the correct odds to chase or better, it is always correct to call. In your example it his mistake to give you the correct odds to chase a potentially winning hand.

sfinXx · Oct 2, 2008

I would not let the pot odds and outs be all you base your play on - go with your feelings and try to recall how the player has played before.

jdeliverer · Oct 4, 2008

sfinXx said:
I would not let the pot odds and outs be all you base your play on - go with your feelings and try to recall how the player has played before.

And remember... if you caught your flush draw last time you probably won't this time.

If you are feeling lucky I think you should chase whatever you want. Don't think about equity and pot odds and that stuff... that just hurts my brain

. You can either win the pot, or lose it. That's a 50% chance. So why not call? You'll win half the time anyway, and the fun you got from the times you won will stay with you forever

Cowboy8112 · Oct 4, 2008

1st. You mean 3 8's not 3 10's right? (thought so)
2nd. Steve has it right, you are getting odds with TPMK. The correct move is to call it out. If you are smelling a trap and still only have TPMK after the turn you are well within "good poker" to lay down your hand with any bet over 35% of the pot IMO. You are looking for an 8 on the turn or river as a 9 could lead to you getting "kicked" out of the pot. Post river, if he is still betting min. call (and make a note that your read on this person being tight may have been wrong).

kleitches · Oct 4, 2008

philthy said:
In a ring game, is it always correct to chase your outs for any situation if you are getting the right odds to do so?

Example:
5nl, full ring, and everyone has 100 BBs.

-UTG raises it to .15, he is a tight player. You play him on a regular basis.
-MP calls the .15, you know nothing about this player. Its folded to you.
-You're on the button with 8s9s and make the call. The blinds fold.

There is .52 in the pot. The flop is 9c 2d 4h.

-UTG bets out .05
-MP folds
-You feel like your opponent is either setting a trap and is trying to get you to raise. You know from previous games, he always C/R his sets and the board is too dry for him to have hit 2 pair. He doesn't bet out if there is an overcard to his hand. So, you figure he has you beat with 1010-AA at this point and raising will only get him to come over the top of you with 1010+.

However, you figure you have 5 clean outs (2 9s, 3 10s) and you can take the lead if you hit either a 9 or a 10 on the turn. With 5 outs, you have 8.4:1 odds off hitting and you're getting 11.4:1 on your money to call.

If you can safely assume your opponent is just holding an over pair and nothing else and a turned 2 pair or trips will give give you the best hand, is this a profitable call you should always make? What if you only have 2 outs, but you're still getting the correct odds to call? Should you make the call every time?

Yup, if it's correct to call then it's correct to call, if that makes sense.

I can see how you're getting 11.4:1 on your money to call, but 8.4:1 odds to hit? If you have 5 outs on the flop, don't you just say 5*4 = 20% chance of hitting? That would make your ratio 5:1. Maybe I've totally screwed up whatever I learned while watching that Phil Gordon DVD. Can you show how you got this?

RickH2005 · Oct 4, 2008

I wouldn't do ANYTHING ALL the time. You said you played with that player before and know how he bets, so I would use your knowledg of that and take it from there. Sometimes 'GUT' feelings are the RIGHT feelings!

reb0202 · Oct 4, 2008

difficult 1

I know the odds thing should be taken into consideration but far to many times on bodog I have played strong hands with several outs and more often than enough the 2 or 3 cards you are wanting never come . I think personally with computer based cards it is a program and the winner is pre picked provided they play thier cards right does anyone agree with my opinion here ???? long time bodogger

RickH2005 · Oct 4, 2008

reb0202 said:
I know the odds thing should be taken into consideration but far to many times on Bodog I have played strong hands with several outs and more often than enough the 2 or 3 cards you are wanting never come . I think personally with computer based cards it is a program and the winner is pre picked provided they play thier cards right does anyone agree with my opinion here ???? long time bodogger

NO! Sorry, reb, but would mean the sites are RIGGED and you'll find alot of people here will bring that very subject up any time they lose! People seem to forget about variance, poor play (NOBODY wants to admit they played poorly!) and just plan BAD LUCK!

ph_il · Oct 4, 2008

Steveg1976 said:
The short answer is anytime you are offered the correct odds to chase or better, it is always correct to call.

Exactly what I was looking for. Thanks.

sfinXx said:
I would not let the pot odds and outs be all you base your play on - go with your feelings and try to recall how the player has played before.

I'm looking at this from a completely mathematical and logical POV. True, you should go with reads, but if you're getting the correct odds to call, wouldn't you?

Cowboy8112 said:
1st. You mean 3 8's not 3 10's right? (thought so)
...Yes, my bad.
2nd. Steve has it right, you are getting odds with TPMK. The correct move is to call it out. If you are smelling a trap and still only have TPMK after the turn you are well within "good poker" to lay down your hand with any bet over 35% of the pot IMO. You are looking for an 8 on the turn or river as a 9 could lead to you getting "kicked" out of the pot. Post river, if he is still betting min. call (and make a note that your read on this person being tight may have been wrong).

The example hand wasn't the main point of the question. It was just put as an example. My main question is 'Should you always call and chase your outs (if you believe hitting will give you a better hand than the opponent) when you are getting the correct odds to do so? Mathematically, if your pot odds are better than the hand odds, you will be profitable in the long run.

kleitches said:
Yup, if it's correct to call then it's correct to call, if that makes sense.
...it does

I can see how you're getting 11.4:1 on your money to call, but 8.4:1 odds to hit?
...I use an odds chart. LOL

If you have 5 outs on the flop, don't you just say 5*4 = 20% chance of hitting? That would make your ratio 5:1. Maybe I've totally screwed up whatever I learned while watching that Phil Gordon DVD. Can you show how you got this?
...you have the right idea, but if you're using the rule of 2 and 4, you only multiply your outs x 4 if you're figuring out the odds of hitting for both turn and river. That only applies if there is no betting after the turn, like if a player was all in. However, since there is usually betting, you have to figure it out for each street. So, it'll be 5x2 = ~10% of hitting.

above.

RickH2005 said:
I wouldn't do ANYTHING ALL the time. You said you played with that player before and know how he bets, so I would use your knowledg of that and take it from there. Sometimes 'GUT' feelings are the RIGHT feelings!

It was an example. And if the situation is completely 100% in the long run, shouln't you do it 100% of the time? If someone is laying 10:1 pot odds to catch a flush on the river and you have a 4.1:1 chance of hitting, wouldn't you make that call every time? You wont hit every time, but you'll end up profiting in the long run.

RickH2005 · Oct 4, 2008

philthy said:
Exactly what I was looking for. Thanks.I'm looking at this from a completely mathematical and logical POV. True, you should go with reads, but if you're getting the correct odds to call, wouldn't you?
The example hand wasn't the main point of the question. It was just put as an example. My main question is 'Should you always call and chase your outs (if you believe hitting will give you a better hand than the opponent) when you are getting the correct odds to do so? Mathematically, if your pot odds are better than the hand odds, you will be profitable in the long run. above.It was an example. And if the situation is completely 100% in the long run, shouln't you do it 100% of the time? If someone is laying 10:1 pot odds to catch a flush on the river and you have a 4.1:1 chance of hitting, wouldn't you make that call every time? You wont hit every time, but you'll end up profiting in the long run.

It's like this---NEVER say never---ALWAYS avoid saying always! But sure, in this game of poker one should ALWAYS play the odds, and NEVER fold straight flushes!

Rather a philosophical point of view, I think!

ph_il · Oct 4, 2008

LOL. Good advice.

USFDoh · Oct 4, 2008

One thing that no one has said so far was that in order to have the answers you have gotten so far is that you MUST be playing within your bankroll. As long as you are using good bankroll management then I agree with the other posters on the odds calculations.

The big mistake many make is that they are not within their bankroll and variance catches them and they go busto.

Just my 2c

Doh!

jayman2411 · Oct 4, 2008

ok i realy don;t understand what you mean about you get 5 to 1 on yoiur money how do you come too this i would like to know how??? i hear alot of player sayimg there getting 4 to 1 or so on on there money so how do you come up with the odds on your money????
jayman2411

USFDoh · Oct 4, 2008

jayman2411 said:
ok i realy don;t understand what you mean about you get 5 to 1 on yoiur money how do you come too this i would like to know how??? i hear alot of player sayimg there getting 4 to 1 or so on on there money so how do you come up with the odds on your money????
jayman2411

You calculate the odds you are getting on your money by how much you have to put into the pot divided by how much is already in the pot

In philthy's example:

There is .52 in the pot and someone bets .05 making the pot .57. He has to call .05 to stay in the hand and he is getting 11.4 to 1 (11.4:1) which is 57 / 5 = 11.4

Hope this helps.

Doh!

Mase31683 · Oct 4, 2008

I don't care how tight he is, tight players will raise with AK/AQ KQs hands too. This bet screams, I hate my hand. If our own holding wasn't so middling, top pair, I'd raise. If i had air, I'd raise it up and expect to take it down a LOT.

As it stands, I'd call, and check behind if he checks the next card. There's no reason to automatically say, we're beat. He could have a small pp as well. Just try to get to showdown as cheap as possible and see what happens. This isn't the kind of flop we're looking for to stack the guy, but if you're folding top pair holdings to ridiculously tiny bets, that's so weak it makes me puke.

And yes, by the way. Odds are odds. If you're getting a better price than the odds, it's +EV and you do it. If you're not getting the odds, it's -EV and you don't. Cut and dry. If something makes money, it makes money. It doesn't matter how many or few outs you have. Make the +EV play.

sfinXx · Oct 8, 2008

just check this superb video it explains everything - very very easy;
[old link~tb]

Question about odds and outs

ph_il

...

Aldwin

Enthusiast

Steveg1976

...

sfinXx

Rising Star

jdeliverer

Legend

Cowboy8112

Visionary

kleitches

Visionary

RickH2005

Legend

reb0202

Rock Star

RickH2005

Legend

ph_il

...

RickH2005

Legend

ph_il

...

USFDoh

Rock Star

jayman2411

Rock Star

USFDoh

Rock Star

Mase31683

Legend

sfinXx

Rising Star

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